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2012 Trading and Industry Report

Overview

Another year of growth and transitions into larger projects.

Module, gun, ship construction and trading proceeded as it did the previous year. With reliable income from trading, we expanded our operation into heavy construction by adding a Carrier construction wing to our operation.

2012-12-21_2011_vs_2012_overview1

From these numbers we can see that our operation is facing more competition as margins were slightly lower than the previous year. To overcome this, we migrated our inventory to higher per-sale profit items. The drastic change in quantity can be explained by dropping Ammo as a common trade item.

This overview shows the benefits of spreading your trade load between high ticket, low volume items and more volume centered low price items.

Quick Numbers

Q1 and Q2 saw renewed vigor into trading as I started to invest more time into logistics and product research.

Q3, July especially, was a record breaking time as I took any liquidity and moved it back into assets. This also marked our shift into high ticket items. Additionally, at this point in the year my trading partner and I had a lot of time to devote to our operation.

September into October is a busy time for me personally. I took a long vacation October and was away from Eve for a few weeks. Everyone needs a break and our performance numbers directly show this.

2012-12-21_gross_sales_and_profit

Highlights

Procurer speculation with the Inferno Patch.

Outsourcing some Highsec logistics with Red Frog Freight during busy periods.

Expanded trading into High Meta items.

Expanded construction and sales into Carrier hulls.

Invested 133 days of training into Racial Cruiser Construction V and Jury Rigging V to enable Tech 3 hull and subsystem production in the coming year.

Invention

Though there are profits in invention, I found the process of gathering materials, inventing a BPC, putting the component parts together to be uninspired; I had no real focus this year with invention. Most of the time I spent in this area was spent making Drones and increasing my stock of -1/-1 Anshar prints for a rainy day.

My two invention characters have 4-4-4 skills. I have found the training return of getting 5-4-4 or even 5-5-5 skills to marginally increase profits. Since the train time to get a Science skill to 5 is around 20 days, I have not felt the need to sink time into polishing off the skills.

I did keep a database record in order to produced the below summary of my invention statistics  The overall success average came out to be 48.2%, which falls in line with any invention guide.

2012-12-19_invention_stats

High Meta

With the addition of Faction, Deadspace, and Officer modules to the market, I saw several trading opportunities throughout the year to work with these items. I had little to no interest in using the tedious contract system to trade these items so when they were added to the general market, I rejoiced.

Here is a summary of the performance of items by Meta levels. Faction and Deadspace items traded well and brought consistent high profits.

2012-12-19_meta_stats

Escalation Barge Teiricide

With the changes to mining barges in the Escalation patch, my partner and I mainly targeted the Procurer hull as its build requirements changed the most with the patch. We speculated that the new  barges would cost more post-patch so we build a large stock before patch day.

We ended up selling 288 units for a profit of 2.48 B. We put a smaller amount of effort into Retriever hulls and managed to build and sell 44 for a profit of 431 M.

2012-12-19_tech1_industrial

Fear the Sabre

I had limited success with trading other racial Interdictors. The Sabre is the champion of them  all and hopefully we see some further balancing to these hulls in upcoming patches.

2012-12-19_interdictors

Alpha Maelstrom to Rail Rokh

This year we saw the popularity of the Alpha Maelstrom as a viable Nullsec fleet composition fade away in favor of the Rail Rokh. I was slow to react to this change and by the time I got my Rohk BPO researched to an acceptable level, the switch to the new doctrine was already underway.

2012-12-19_battleships

Rigs and Guns

The core rig types (Trimark, CCC, and Field Extender) continued to be a solid performer. If you sell a ship in an area, you should also sell related rigs to popular fits. Let this be a lesson in item cross-selling for anyone building, stocking, and selling ship hulls.

2012-12-19_rigs

The core gun types seen below also provided some income over the year.

2012-12-19_guns

GoonSwarm Shrugged, I Smiled

During the GoonSwarm Ice Interdiction, I speculated on POS fuel and turned a profit. I made 648 M doing some passive trading in Jita on Oxygen Isotopes. In addition, people started to panic and predict that other Isotopes were going to be affected also. I made some early buys on Nitrogen and then sold them off at the height of their price level.

2012-12-19_fuel

High Meta

I have focused on and found a number of High Meta items that have proven to be very profitable. I’ve blanked out the names of them because I don’t yet want to disclose the item types at this point in time.

2012-12-19_highmeta

Implants

As expected implants were a high performer.

2012-12-19_implants

Standard Modules

High volume modules provide a small source of income as working with these items means you are in a competitive and often saturated market.

The new Drone Damage Amplifier modules sold very well, but I had poor success with the Reactive Armor Hardener.

2012-12-20_modules

Batch Ammo

I have continued to have limited success with ammo. I have found the velocity of trading to be very slow which I think is due to the nature of ammo production and consumption.

Since ammo jobs are batch based (meaning that when someone runs a production job they are producing a large bath of ammo rather than a single unit), production has periods of high volume. Additionally when someone buys ammo, that person tends to buy a large stock and slowly work though the pile.

I keep stocking ammo with the intention that it will move, but I always am unimpressed by the numbers.

2012-12-20_ammo

Tier 3 Battlecruisers

The popularity of the Tier 3 BCs remains high as I was able to make a profit on every racial type of them. Surprisingly the Oracle and Talos have been outselling the Tornado.

2012-12-20_tier3_bc

HAC Favoritism

The Cerberus has remained a poor performer with no production or trading opportunities arsing this year. The Ishtar remains a strong seller as a preferred AFK mission ship while the Vagabond holds up the PVP end of the HAC spectrum. I fully agree with Kirith Kodachi’s recent comments on the upcoming rebalance initiative that will eventually hit HACs.

2012-12-20_hac

Tech 2 Logistics Falling From Grace

With the recent rebalance of Tech 1 logistics, I expect my production and trade of Tech 2 logistics ships to decline. As Jester pointed out, the proficiency of the Tech 1 variant can cheaply replicate the Tech 2 variant.

2012-12-20_logistics

Future Ventures

Champion CREST API changes and development with the community to enable 3rd party tools to flourish.

Pressure the CSM for industry and mining changes.

Though the Carrier project is new, it is proving to be profitable so we expect the expand the operation. We are going to look into Dreadnought production in addition to carriers.

Build from stockpile of Tech 3 hulls and subsystem BPCs.

Build backlog of invented Anashar BPCs.

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Increasing Faction Standings with Tags

For some time I have been queuing up production jobs that would be well suited for highsec. In order to anchor a POS in highsec, your corporation needs to have 5.0+ standings with the appropriate faction [detailed guide].

Since my main character has run a lot of Gallente missions in the past for ISK and has Social IV, he started off this task with a standing of 3.12 to the Gallente Federation.

Rather than grinding out more missions, I found out that there are a series of one-time agents for each faction that will trade in tags for standings. There are four Data Centers, one for each empire, located in New Eden where you can turn in tags.

You can collect these tags by running missions or by buying them off the market. A bunch of tags for one empire’s Data Center agents came out to around 352 M ISK on the Jita market. I didn’t see any major swings in prices or obvious market manipulation attempts, so I bought enough for all the agents.

Turning in these tags raised my standing from 3.12 to 4.95 with Social IV. After Social V completes, I should have more than the required 5.0 base standing in order to anchor a POS in highsec. [edit] Apparently Social skills do not come into play with anchoring rights. It appears I will have to do some more grinding to get the base standing up to 5.0+.

Chatting with all the Data Center agents

Since corporation standings are calculated as ‘the average of all corporation member standings towards that faction after the period of a week’, I will have to move this character into a 1 member corporation and wait for the standings to update.

No rush on this project, but I wanted to get the standings in order now so when it comes time to light up the production lines, I can immediately drop a POS. If you don’t want to raise your corporation’s standings yourself, you can even hire a guy to do it for you.

Perhaps I will wait for the POS rework before starting this production project. From what I have gathered listening to current CSM Chairman Seleene, the POS redesign is in the works. I haven’t been able to determine if this is slated for Winter 2012 or for Summer 2013.


Trading Performance Statistics by Meta Level

Since the addition of higher level meta items to the market, I have started to find a few niche markets and experiment with trading them on the open market as opposed to the contract market. I knew they were producing a greater return than standard tech 1/2 items, but I wanted to quantify that value.

I used the following database query to get the average margin by meta level for the past 120 days of trading.

SELECT invMetaTypes.metaGroupID, invMetaGroups.metaGroupName, AVG((profit / (price * quantity))) * 100 as averageMargin
 FROM wallet
 JOIN invMetaTypes ON (wallet.typeID = invMetaTypes.typeID)
 JOIN invMetaGroups ON (invMetaTypes.metaGroupID = invMetaGroups.metaGroupID)
 WHERE transactionDateTime > DATE_SUB(CURDATE(),INTERVAL 120 DAY)
 GROUP BY invMetaTypes.metaGroupID
 ORDER BY metaGroupID

It turns out that trading in Deadspace items has been really profitable. Though the sample base for Deadspace is considerably smaller than tech 1/2, the margins have been consistently high.

I have not worked with any Officer modules yet.

Table data in a nice chart.

Profit % By Meta Level with Standard Deviation

Though it did not terribly skew the results, the tech 1 value was influenced by  high margins from the new Drone Damage Amplifier I modules that are returning a 92.6% profit.


Faction/Deadspace/Officer Market Opening Prices

The Inferno market is open and with it comes the addition of Faction/Deadspace/Officer items. I expect module prices to mimic Faction ship prices and slowly go down as more traders enter the market and the 0.01 war begins.

Here are some early predictions.

CN Invuls will go down in price due to competition and the desire for the recently added higher Meta Deadspace variants. In January these were trading at 524M.

We’re going to see the sheer scale of some module empires now that we have increased visibility into the market. For example there is a 34.89 B order up @ 66.979 M for Republic Fleet Gyros.

I expect common Faction items like Sisters Expanded Launders to drop in price and then rise as people manipulate this high volume item.

This is a great time to be a trader and I expect the market to reach an initial stable period in a few weeks as existing contracts expire.


Inferno Escalation Test Server Changes

Build 362741 has been pushed to the test server, with a branch name of Tranquility. I will attempt to keep a list of changes here so bookmark this post.

Preliminary Size: 306 MB
Launcher update to 1.202
I was prompted for a DirectX install after the Launcher updated.

[Update April 12 13:12]
CCP Goliath non-comprehensive feature list post.

Team Five-0
Security status of drone regions has been rebalanced
Rogue drones no longer drop loot, but have bounties
Incursion site rebalancing
Behind-the-scenes work on aggression flagging, killmails, etc.
Loot-rights UI – container colouring should be more consistent when owners log off/jump/dock
Current iteration of titan changes

Team Gridlock
New file format for objects, with faster loading times

Team Avatar
Buff bar notification panel implemented beside HUD
Chat channels can now be locally cleared and the MOTD reloaded
Your own market orders can now be highlighted. To enable this, a setting checkbox needs to be checked in the market settings tab. The orders marked as yours have “modify order” option added to their menu
Quickbar entries can have text added to them
Your active ship will no longer show as available in Contracts
Deselect/Select all function added when arranging items in contracts
There is now a “Client” submenu in the transaction logs
A few improvements have been made to the quickbar in the market. Now items can be dropped on the quickbar tab, it’s possible to multiselect items in the quickbar, items in the quickbar can be “copied” over to another folder by CTRL dragging them to the folder, and now asset items can be added to the quickbar.
There is a new hairstyle available for female characters.
The ‘Pose’ icons within character creation and re-customization now display a clearer representation of the actual pose.
The “leaf” groups in the market can now be collapsed like all the other groups.
The most common user interface elements used to represent players can now be dragged over to various edit fields to add the characters name.
‘Select Station’ window for remote market orders now has 2 columns, station name and number jumps, and it’s possible to sort the list by either one of columns
Entries in most table like scrolls can be copied with CTRL+c. If entries are selected, only those will be copied, but if nothing is selected and the focus is on the scroll, all the entries are copied.
Hints that only repeated the text in the scroll entry been removed.
There is now a right click option on the group/category trace in market details which allows you to find that group in the browse tab

Team Superfriends
Market now shows Faction/Officer/Deadspace loot

Confirmed Changes

1. Officer/Deadspace/Faction on Market

2. Stealth Bomber V3 Update

Not on Test server yet.

3. Drone Rat Bounties

Drone Queen 1.85 M
Patriach 1.55 M
Drone Creator 1.4 M
Drone Ruler 1.25 M
Drone Controller 500k
Domination Drone 950k
Spearhead Drone 800k
Swarm Preserver 650k
Exterminator Drone 225k
Viral Infector 80k
Disintegrator 95k
Defeator 185k
Atomizer 110k
Violator 87.5k
Strain Splinter 25.5k
Crippler 195k
Striker Drone 205k
Nuker 117.5k
Siege Drone 215k
Dismantler 22.5k
Marauder 21k
Barracuda 13k
Devilfish 12k
Kalestra Cable link

4. Status Effects Notification Panel

Note: Remote Armor/Shield/Hull/Energy do not show up. Only E-war at this time.

Due to resource constraints we did a minimal implementation that is mean to be iterated on based on your feedback. Currently it is only tracking negative effects directed against you (debuffs). The plan is to include more things if this goes well and include assist modules and possibly even damage dealt to you.

The immediate goal is to make aggression against you visible and help you react to those that do. There is a lot we want to do more and we have scheduled time to iterate on this so please keep the comments coming
CCP Frellicus link

Additionally you can right click on the effect and get options for that pilot.

5. Text Trail-off Shading on Overview

It’s intentional and not… the fading is intentional, but it was not really supposed to go out in Escalation but Inferno and the change has been reverted for now. So soon you will see it change back to the way it’s on TQ.
CCP karkur
 link

FYI: This topic is being discussed by our UI designers and it seems like the amount of fading will be reduced a bit to avoid reducing the displayed information.
CCP Habakuk
 link

6. Rumored Drake Rebalance

No change.

7. Missile Launchers

Not on Test server yet.

8. Reload MOTD and Clear options on Chat channels

9. Drone Region Security Status Adjustment

Details in Carebearing 2.0 Devblog.

…worked out on by how close your are to empire, here is a sample of them
Kalestra Cable link

Etherium Reach got hit particularly hard because it was one of the best truesec regions in the game (-0.60 vs -0.64 for The Spire and Perrigen Falls, and just behind Deklein at -0.61, with the next-nearest non-drone region being Branch at -0.51), despite having a direct connection to Empire. It doesn’t have a hisec connection, so it’s more of a Tribute than a Pure Blind, but that’s balanced to some degree by having a connection to both Molden Heath and The Forge. It got the biggest adjustment because its sec values were the most out of line from what you’d expect anywhere else in EVE.
CCP Greyscale link further clarification

10. Engine Trail Consistency

Deimos now has blue trails.

11. Titan Adjustments

Current / Proposed

12. Market Order Highlighting

CCP karkur has confimed that this will be in soon(tm).

“Hmmm… no, the option is not there. It was checked in very recently and was integrated later. You should see it soon :P”
link

Looks like this made it into build 360692:

Looks a little rough. The highlight is a bar around your order. No editing done to the image below, just a crop.

Looks like there will be a change coming:

2012-04-16 Updated:

13. Bug Reporting Bug

…there was a bug in the SSL initialization that made the client lock up for 30 seconds or so. It’s been fixed so now you can bug report like the wind 🙂
CCP Explorer
 link

14. Contract Select

New buttons for Select All / Deselect All.

15. Rename Quickbar Item

16. Incursion Balancing

Yes, but I need to get more details on this.

Update: Find something new? Comment here or @k162space on twitter.


Traders Rejoice, Market Buff

Revised killmails are coming with Inferno.

It looks like CCP took design inspiration from our popular 3rd party killboards, which is nice. Why reinvent the wheel?

At the bottom of the new killmails is information for the total value of the killmail. Currently killboards have to manually store and guesstimate the value of items that are contract only, like officer/faction/deadspace modules.

For my needs, I have been manually updating prices for these non-market items from http://prices.c0rporation.com by importing the XML price list. I’ve also had to edit some numbers are they were not up to date or way overpriced.

Officer/faction/deadspace modules have always been a thorn in my side as far as pricing went.

In order for the new in-game killmail to have a price for these items, CCP decided to add them to the market.

Very exciting news for traders. We’re now going to be able to clearly see price and volume for these high meta items.

From the Devblog:


To get this to work properly, we’ve (with help from team Game of Drones) added everything to the market and fixed a few items that didn’t have a price (like Titans), with the price being based on material ingredients.

link

Confirmation from CCP SoniClover:

Q: Everything on market now?
A: More or less. Basically, everything that exists, is published and has a meta level is on the market now.
link


POS Fuel Costs

I’m a creator at heart and now that we have gotten back into sovereign nullsec, I want to setup a research POS. Working with eve.1019.net’s POS planner, I setup a tower with six Advanced Mobile Laboratories to estimate fuel costs.

Two major events are increasing the cost to run a POS. GoonSwarm’s Gallente Ice Interdiction campaign has driven up prices for not just Oxygen Isotopes. All Isotope prices have gone up due to market speculation and general Mackinaw killing campaigns.

Gallente towers are used for moon harvesting due to their bonus 100% bonus to Silo Cargo Capacity values. Since I will not be moon mining, I picked a Caldari tower which uses Nitrogen Isotopes.

Additionally the announcement of Player Control Customs Offices in the Winter Expansion has caused all PI products to rise in price due to market speculation. Practically every PI item has been affected with precious Robotics taking a hard hit.

With Isotopes consuming a large amount of the ISK to run the tower, any ice mining that we do as a corp will help bring down the costs.

Faction towers do have lower fuel requirements than Racial ones. Putting the same 6 labs on a True Sansha Control Tower shows a 44.2 M/month savings on fuel.

 

Sadly the high price of the faction towers means that it will take 3.5 years to make up the cost difference using the lower prices True Sansha variant at 1.99 B ISK.