Another year of growth and transitions into larger projects.
Module, gun, ship construction and trading proceeded as it did the previous year. With reliable income from trading, we expanded our operation into heavy construction by adding a Carrier construction wing to our operation.
From these numbers we can see that our operation is facing more competition as margins were slightly lower than the previous year. To overcome this, we migrated our inventory to higher per-sale profit items. The drastic change in quantity can be explained by dropping Ammo as a common trade item.
This overview shows the benefits of spreading your trade load between high ticket, low volume items and more volume centered low price items.
Q1 and Q2 saw renewed vigor into trading as I started to invest more time into logistics and product research.
Q3, July especially, was a record breaking time as I took any liquidity and moved it back into assets. This also marked our shift into high ticket items. Additionally, at this point in the year my trading partner and I had a lot of time to devote to our operation.
September into October is a busy time for me personally. I took a long vacation October and was away from Eve for a few weeks. Everyone needs a break and our performance numbers directly show this.
Procurer speculation with the Inferno Patch.
Outsourcing some Highsec logistics with Red Frog Freight during busy periods.
Expanded trading into High Meta items.
Expanded construction and sales into Carrier hulls.
Invested 133 days of training into Racial Cruiser Construction V and Jury Rigging V to enable Tech 3 hull and subsystem production in the coming year.
Though there are profits in invention, I found the process of gathering materials, inventing a BPC, putting the component parts together to be uninspired; I had no real focus this year with invention. Most of the time I spent in this area was spent making Drones and increasing my stock of -1/-1 Anshar prints for a rainy day.
My two invention characters have 4-4-4 skills. I have found the training return of getting 5-4-4 or even 5-5-5 skills to marginally increase profits. Since the train time to get a Science skill to 5 is around 20 days, I have not felt the need to sink time into polishing off the skills.
I did keep a database record in order to produced the below summary of my invention statistics The overall success average came out to be 48.2%, which falls in line with any invention guide.
With the addition of Faction, Deadspace, and Officer modules to the market, I saw several trading opportunities throughout the year to work with these items. I had little to no interest in using the tedious contract system to trade these items so when they were added to the general market, I rejoiced.
Here is a summary of the performance of items by Meta levels. Faction and Deadspace items traded well and brought consistent high profits.
Escalation Barge Teiricide
With the changes to mining barges in the Escalation patch, my partner and I mainly targeted the Procurer hull as its build requirements changed the most with the patch. We speculated that the new barges would cost more post-patch so we build a large stock before patch day.
We ended up selling 288 units for a profit of 2.48 B. We put a smaller amount of effort into Retriever hulls and managed to build and sell 44 for a profit of 431 M.
Fear the Sabre
I had limited success with trading other racial Interdictors. The Sabre is the champion of them all and hopefully we see some further balancing to these hulls in upcoming patches.
Alpha Maelstrom to Rail Rokh
This year we saw the popularity of the Alpha Maelstrom as a viable Nullsec fleet composition fade away in favor of the Rail Rokh. I was slow to react to this change and by the time I got my Rohk BPO researched to an acceptable level, the switch to the new doctrine was already underway.
Rigs and Guns
The core rig types (Trimark, CCC, and Field Extender) continued to be a solid performer. If you sell a ship in an area, you should also sell related rigs to popular fits. Let this be a lesson in item cross-selling for anyone building, stocking, and selling ship hulls.
The core gun types seen below also provided some income over the year.
GoonSwarm Shrugged, I Smiled
During the GoonSwarm Ice Interdiction, I speculated on POS fuel and turned a profit. I made 648 M doing some passive trading in Jita on Oxygen Isotopes. In addition, people started to panic and predict that other Isotopes were going to be affected also. I made some early buys on Nitrogen and then sold them off at the height of their price level.
I have focused on and found a number of High Meta items that have proven to be very profitable. I’ve blanked out the names of them because I don’t yet want to disclose the item types at this point in time.
As expected implants were a high performer.
High volume modules provide a small source of income as working with these items means you are in a competitive and often saturated market.
The new Drone Damage Amplifier modules sold very well, but I had poor success with the Reactive Armor Hardener.
I have continued to have limited success with ammo. I have found the velocity of trading to be very slow which I think is due to the nature of ammo production and consumption.
Since ammo jobs are batch based (meaning that when someone runs a production job they are producing a large bath of ammo rather than a single unit), production has periods of high volume. Additionally when someone buys ammo, that person tends to buy a large stock and slowly work though the pile.
I keep stocking ammo with the intention that it will move, but I always am unimpressed by the numbers.
Tier 3 Battlecruisers
The popularity of the Tier 3 BCs remains high as I was able to make a profit on every racial type of them. Surprisingly the Oracle and Talos have been outselling the Tornado.
The Cerberus has remained a poor performer with no production or trading opportunities arsing this year. The Ishtar remains a strong seller as a preferred AFK mission ship while the Vagabond holds up the PVP end of the HAC spectrum. I fully agree with Kirith Kodachi’s recent comments on the upcoming rebalance initiative that will eventually hit HACs.
Tech 2 Logistics Falling From Grace
With the recent rebalance of Tech 1 logistics, I expect my production and trade of Tech 2 logistics ships to decline. As Jester pointed out, the proficiency of the Tech 1 variant can cheaply replicate the Tech 2 variant.
Champion CREST API changes and development with the community to enable 3rd party tools to flourish.
Pressure the CSM for industry and mining changes.
Though the Carrier project is new, it is proving to be profitable so we expect the expand the operation. We are going to look into Dreadnought production in addition to carriers.
Build from stockpile of Tech 3 hulls and subsystem BPCs.
Build backlog of invented Anashar BPCs.
My trading and industry focus tends to ebb and flow over time. Station trading, ship building, reactions, tech2/tech3 construction, and other types — one venture may not be the most appropriate path to success at the given time. Focus on daily ‘0.01 ISK’ trading has fallen off as we’ve moved our focus to Carrier production.
Our mineral compression location has been fully stocked with compression appropriate blueprints, logistic supply lines to our production system have been sorted out, and the initial ISK investment in Capital blueprints has taken place.
Sales from our first Carrier batch have proven profitable, so my partner and I are pleased with the initial results.
Current industry jobs contain guns for mineral compression, Carrier hulls, and getting more ME/PE work done on idle ship blueprints and Capital related blueprints.
My two industrial characters are polishing off Advanced Laboratory Operation and Advanced Mass Production to V, which is around a 27 day train each, to maximize their production abilities.
In an attempt to sell off the stockpile of blueprints that I acquired from price speculation in the Inferno expansion, I have started to become more aggressive with their pricing.
Profits per blueprint have come down into the 250-350 M range. Though they are now worth much more when sourced from NPC suppliers, the market is glutted with people that made the same move as me. My preference is to sell off the stock of 20 prints that I have and to move the ISK into minerals or Capital prints.
I’m seeing a slow, profitable burn the past few months despite spending money on a Capital Ships and Racial Carrier skillbook in addition to a PLEX for a friend to keep his account active.
We’re still turning a profit and I expect the pace to accelerate as our Capital ship production line grows into a full-fledged, efficient operation.
I did not make any moves on the market for Retribution as I did not see any major profit potentials with this patch. The scan changes to Blockade Runners did drive prices up, but I was online far too late to purchase stock.
I did have a plan to place a Jump Freighter in one of the NPC ORE stations that sell blueprints and buy as many BPOs of the new frigate as possible, but the move of liquid ISK into capital prints took precedence.
The rush to build the new Destroyer hulls also did not interest me as I expect their profit potential to rapidly vanish over the next two weeks.
Despite my lack of play time the past month due to a new family addition, I still am outperforming my linear trend.
Time invested in trading as fallen to 4-5 hours/week and Tech2 invention/production is much lower, around 1 hour/week.
The large jump in net value in August was due to a move to speculate on mining barge BPO changes.
Despite the slow sell rate, speculation on Procurer BPOs during the Inferno 1.2 patch turned out to double my ISK investment.
I’ve regained interest in producing Carrier and Dreadnought class ships so I’ve invested 15 B into BPOs for capital parts along with a few select BPO/BPCs for mineral compression.
My initial build will be 8x Carriers (2 Racial) and then see how fast each type moves. The initial quantity of minerals needed for this build came out to 11.7 B.
I’m planning on Carrier/Dreadnought production to be a slow turnover, yet steady income stream. I’ve watched Eve-Fail grow into a full fledged Capital production line and have been inspired to follow his lead.
Winter Expansion Opportunities
New ships are usually highly profitable so I look forward to the new ORE frigate and destroyer ships.
In a previous post, I described the research and assumptions that lead me to speculate on the prices of Procurer BPOs. After 5 weeks, I’ve been able to sell off some of the BPOs for a nice profit.
Market speculation in Eve is high risk and high reward. I always proceed cautiously and try to verify as much of the speculation discourse as possible before making a move. At any moment, CCP could make a change and all your research will be moot.
I was able to offload 6 out of 20 BPOs after the 1.2 Inferno patch for a nice profit.
20 total BPOs purchased at the old NPC price of 450 M:
- 6 BPOs sold in Jita at rising prices for a profit of 3.8 B
- 2 BPOs on sale in Jita
- 2 BPOs in copy slots to make BPCs for future Invention jobs
- 10 BPOs remain idle in the hangar
Jita Market Post Change
The market reaction went as expected. Pre-patch there was a lot of market activity as news got out about the change. Market speculators got in and started to buy up stock.
After the patch, the BPO price slowly rose towards the new NPC price, a few large players came in to reset the price to a new plateau, and the volume of trade decreased as demand went down.
The key to a good speculative move is to get into the market while the price is the same or unchanged and then attempt to sell off your stock before the level of trade leaves you with dead stock.
The top highlight was me winning the 0.01 ISK game of the Jita market.
On the 26th, a trader with a lot of cash came in and reset the price to closer to the new BPO NPC price. I moved 3 out of 6 of my sales on this date.
Here’s a snapshot of my trades including the profit.
I’m sitting on 10 idle BPOs at this point. Since my pressure to convert these to liquid ISK is low, I will keep them in my hangar. I am in no rush to sell these off and I can put them into other industry ventures, such as copying or Skiff invention.
Along with the rebalancing the roles of the mining barges, their mineral requirements were also adjusted. The build requirements for the Tech 1 barges about doubled and therefore the BPO NPC price was adjusted to reflect the new value.
Here is my research on buying Procurer BPOs at pre-Inferno 1.2 prices to sell after the patch.
[Aug 9 update] It looks like CCP changed the NPC price in the Inferno 1.2.1 patch.
Since these BPOs are only seeded in the Outer Ring in two ORE stations, I was able to get a good view on how many were bought by using the market window.
Out of normal BPO purchases in ORE space amounted to 1,264 units starting in late July.
CCP changed the values before going live. They had a different number published on the Test server and knowingly seeded a different value on the live server. *shakes fist*
I looked considered the increase in BPO price, the new role, market velocity, and added in a little bit of my own gut feeling. This showed that the Procurer BPO was the item with the most potential for profit.
Given that these were purchased for 450 M and are now worth
0.508 B 0.838 B that means 73.3 B 491 B was created from nothing, or about 0.3% 2% of the normal 24 T ISK faucet amount stated in the 2012 Fanfest presentation. This amount doesn’t seem too noteworthy.
Speculating on Profits
In 76 days about 124 pre-Inferno 1.2 Procurer BPOs moved in Jita slightly above their NPC price of 450 M. If 1,264 out of normal units and around 561 move in Jita in the same time period, that means it will take about 1,118 days (3.06 years) for this stock to clear assuming that demand remains the same.
I bought 20 Procurer BPOs at the old NPC price for a total investment of 9 B. Taking in account the new price of
0.508 B 0.838 B, we can value them at 10.16 B 16.8 B. This shows a 1.16 B 7.76 B increase in the NPC value of the items. I was expecting more profit, but that’s what you get when you speculate on patch day.
I have a few options on how to turn a profit with the BPOs:
- Sell them in Jita. I believe that due to the market saturation with pre-Inferno 1.2 prints, it will be a while before we start to see the new NPC cost in Jita of
0.508 B0.838 B + a good margin. I could slowly sell the stock off as prices rise.
- Improve value by researching them and then sell.
- Produce BPCs for invention/manufacturing. As of this writing, there are not a lot of BPCs available on the open market.
I plan on doing all three to help spread the risk and start to get a return on this speculation adventure.