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Tech 2 BPO Prices Post Crius

tl;dr Sale prices for Tech 2 BPOs are down an average of 47% after the Crius release.

Overview

Over the past few years I have been watching prices for publicly traded Tech 2 BPOs and attempting to record the values to the best of my ability.

Some sales completed non-publicly, some were vastly inflated, and some never sold. There is most certainly a lot of inaccuracy in the datapoints given the speculative nature of the Tech 2 BPO market, yet they still serve as guiding value to help us value the BPO.

The Post Crius Marketplace

The volume of posts in the official Sell Orders section of the forums are down, sellers are getting trolled, and people are re-running numbers to reprice the value of the BPOs trying to justify a much lower cost. I’ve seen a lot of CCP Dev intervention to clean up threads and keep people on topic. Overall the market is rather anemic.

Numbers

2014-11-14_tech_2_bpo_public_sale_prices

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CCP Greyscale Comments on Tech 2 BPOs

We got hit with two industry Devblogs today as it looks like CCP is going to try to publish all six industry related blogs before Fanfest. On page 9 for the comments for the Researching, the Future post, CCP Greyscale made a comment on how much Tech 2 BPOs dominate the market.

Right, Mastadon, Claymore, Claw etc are BPO-dominated, so in practice all this means is more throughput and (presumably) cheaper prices.

Huginn and Muninn are in the area of concern, where we might end up warping the market a little.

Broadsword’s not a concern because it was released in Trinity (winter 2007) and to the best of my knowledge we stopped putting new ship BPOs into the lottery in Revelations 1 (winter 2006). If that market’s uncompetitive, it’s because of your fellow inventors, not BPO owners ūüôā

CCP Greyscale source

This adds a little more information from what we got out of CCP Diagoras before he left CCP that I covered in my Percentage of Items from Invention vs Tech 2 BPOs post.


425mm Railgun I BPO Firesale

With the upcoming compression changes outlined in the Building Better Worlds devblog, our stock of 425mm Railgun I BPOs became instantly useless for compressing minerals. They were researched to ME250/PE50, but I priced them at their NPC value of 15M as a firesale in order to get them to move. I was able to sell our stock within a week.

So long Railgun BPOs, you will be missed.

2014.04.10.05.10.44


Historical Tech 2 BPO Prices

Disclaimer: Account for a large amount of inaccuracy with the price records that I have for Tech 2 BPO sales. The numbers that I have recorded are from scanning official and unofficial forums, chatting with industry counterparts, and some of the values have a price correction built into the value based on a ‘best guess’ from the record of a sale.

Is it better to trade or produce off of a Tech 2 BPO?

It turns out that it depends — the Tech 2 BPO market is highly speculative and subject to swings in price based on an items popularity given trends in balancing, fleet doctrines, or the sheer collectibility of the item. The prices that I have been able to record have been mostly public record. I’m sure that there is a tier of players that deal with blueprints off the record in private backchannels.

Data Scope

Taking data that I have from my previous post on Tech 2 BPO Returns, I did another scan of prices and added them to my records. This gives me a sampling of prices from 2012-03 to 2013-12, a 21 month span.

Sale Prices

The performance of each item varied so I grouped them into ships, modules, drones, and ammunition.

Ship prices are the most stable return, modules second, and then followed by drones. Ammunition seems to be a volatile market; I am not surprised with the Tech 2 BPO value over time for ammunition as I have seen similar volatility with sales as noted in my Trading Performance: Ammo post.

2013-12-18_t2_bpo_price_summary

Producing vs Investing

Using the Muninn as an example of a average performer and having the BPO in constant production would yield around 246 per year coming in at 50.683 M profit per hull, or 12.47 B a year of profit.

Our production profit would be around 1.04 B a month and my sheet on the increase of value shows the BPO increasing at 2.38 B per month. It turns out holding on to the print is more valuable than producing off of it.

tl;dr Conclusion

Invest in Tech 2 BPOs that fall under the ship and module category, produce off of them for a year, and resell the item for a higher value.


Spreadsheets in Space

My side interest in information¬†aesthetics¬†is present in my work, both professional and personal. I’ve received many comments on how clean and clear my analysis charts, reports, and spreadsheet work can be so I though I would share some of my Eve related spreadsheet work to inspire people.

Here are screenshots from depreciated spreadsheets that I used for industrial production, speculation, and fuel estimations before switching to a custom web-based solution that my partner, Raath, created.

My design goal has always been to use small type-face Arial text that is boxed and columned with important information highlighted in primary colors or shaded in gradients to denote best to worst status. Some of these sheets are old with broken formulas or outdated build requirements. Pay more attention to the organization rather than to the numerical content.

Ammo

Ammo

Compression

Compression

Copy BPOs

Copy BPOs

Copy Capital BPOs

Copy Capital BPOs

Freighter Construction

Freighter Construction

Jump Freighter Construction

Jump Freighter Construction

Margins

Margins

POS Fuel

POS Fuel

POS Fuel Blocks

POS Fuel Blocks

Procurer Speculation

Procurer Speculation

Ship Construction

Ship Construction

T3 Construction

T3 Subsystem Construction

T3 Hull Construction

T3 Hull Construction


November Financial Report

Overview

My trading and industry focus tends to¬†ebb and flow over time. Station trading, ship building, reactions, tech2/tech3 construction, and other types — one venture may not be the most¬†appropriate¬†¬†path to success at the given time.¬†Focus on daily ‘0.01 ISK’ trading has fallen off as we’ve moved our focus to Carrier¬†production.

Our mineral compression location has been fully stocked with compression appropriate blueprints, logistic supply lines to our production system have been sorted out, and the initial ISK investment in Capital blueprints has taken place.

Sales from our first Carrier batch have proven profitable, so my partner and I are pleased with the initial results.

Heavy Industry

Current industry jobs contain guns for mineral compression, Carrier hulls, and getting more ME/PE work done on idle ship blueprints and Capital related blueprints.

My two industrial characters are polishing off Advanced Laboratory Operation and Advanced Mass Production to V, which is around a 27 day train each, to maximize their production abilities.

2012-12-03_industry_jobs-1

Procurer Blueprints

In an attempt to sell off the stockpile of blueprints that I acquired from price speculation in the Inferno expansion, I have started to become more aggressive with their pricing.

Profits per blueprint have come down into the 250-350 M range. Though they are now worth much more when sourced from NPC suppliers, the market is glutted with people that made the same move as me. My preference is to sell off the stock of 20 prints that I have and to move the ISK into minerals or Capital prints.

2012-12-03_procurer_bpo_sales-1

Charts

I’m seeing a slow, profitable burn the past few months despite spending money on a Capital Ships and Racial Carrier skillbook in addition to a PLEX for a friend to keep his account active.

We’re still turning a profit and I expect the pace to accelerate as our Capital ship production line grows into a¬†full-fledged, efficient operation.

2012-12-03_net

2012-12-03_net_chart

Retribution

I did not make any moves on the market for Retribution as I did not see any major profit potentials with this patch. The scan changes to Blockade Runners did drive prices up, but I was online far too late to purchase stock.

I did have a plan to place a Jump Freighter in one of the NPC ORE stations that sell blueprints and buy as many BPOs of the new frigate as possible, but the move of liquid ISK into capital prints took precedence.

The rush to build the new Destroyer hulls also did not interest me as I expect their profit potential to rapidly vanish over the next two weeks.


Blake’s Papercuts

Inspired by Jester’s post about accepting Eve as it stands, I started to record my own personal headaches while performing Industry and Trade related tasks.

Manufacturing/Invention
1. Menu items on Blueprints: I want to be able to Right-click, build or Right-click, invent from the hangar.
3. Batch processing: multi-select right-click, build/invent.
3. Two stage jobs, like capitals that have components that are build from minerals, can be built with one click from the capital Blueprint.
4. Easy display of Blueprints ME/PE from hanger view.
5. Stack Blueprints of equal ME/PE levels.
6. Multi cycle runs. Make 10 items 10 times as long as you have the required items in stock.
7. Pause jobs if they run out of materials and allow resume when sufficient items are placed in the hangar.

Booster Trade
1. Expand profession. Currently I know of a few major manufacturers of drugs and distribute to niche markets. I want to be able to have more players in the market, many more markets, and a feeling of sneaking contraband around the galaxy.
2. Given the limitations on production to POS’es, the barrier of entry for manufacturers is high. I remember a long time ago hearing about how Mittani proposed a drug manufacturing ship; imagine a stealthy ship that arrives out of nowhere, makes you drugs, and retreats into the abyss.

API
1. Expose Blueprint ME/PE/Run/Remaining.
2. Expose tower CPU/Power utilization and any timers such as anchoring, on-lining, or reinforced. (Metagame++;)
3. Expose saved ship fits for read/write to allow developers to create alliance/corp/mobile 3rd party applications for working with fits using XML.
4. Do not allow the buying, selling,¬†modification¬†of orders (I’ve wrote about the potential botting implications here).

POS Rework
1. Grant the ability to move POS’es between characters, corporations, and alliances.
2. Scrap the worthless Refining Arrays. They refine at too high a loss, are cumbersome to load and start refine jobs. In the new system you should be able to create paths between modules like we have in PI to transfer goods for constant production.
3. Add a mechanic for hacking/taking over offlined and abondoned towers.

Unified Inventory
1. Dragging something to the station Item or Ship hangar should automatically place it in the proper hangar. I hate having to drag ships to ships and item to items. The goods are going to my local hangar, just put them there.

General
1. Automatically remove me from my ship, stop skills from training, and initiate the clone jump.
2. Prompt/warn me that my clone is out of date before undocking.

Timers
1. I want to be able to see the time remaining for various things (GCC, etc) in the same fashion as the undock timer.

Kill Reports
1. Add Logistic repair amount.
2. Add coordinate and time data down to the millisecond to allow people to develop applications to replay and analyse battles.