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Traders Rejoice, Market Buff

Revised killmails are coming with Inferno.

It looks like CCP took design inspiration from our popular 3rd party killboards, which is nice. Why reinvent the wheel?

At the bottom of the new killmails is information for the total value of the killmail. Currently killboards have to manually store and guesstimate the value of items that are contract only, like officer/faction/deadspace modules.

For my needs, I have been manually updating prices for these non-market items from http://prices.c0rporation.com by importing the XML price list. I’ve also had to edit some numbers are they were not up to date or way overpriced.

Officer/faction/deadspace modules have always been a thorn in my side as far as pricing went.

In order for the new in-game killmail to have a price for these items, CCP decided to add them to the market.

Very exciting news for traders. We’re now going to be able to clearly see price and volume for these high meta items.

From the Devblog:


To get this to work properly, we’ve (with help from team Game of Drones) added everything to the market and fixed a few items that didn’t have a price (like Titans), with the price being based on material ingredients.

link

Confirmation from CCP SoniClover:

Q: Everything on market now?
A: More or less. Basically, everything that exists, is published and has a meta level is on the market now.
link

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Tech 2 BPO Returns

Stirring the Hornet’s Nest

The allure of Tech2 BPOs is high and the history surrounding them is very controversial. If you don’t believe me, perform a search on the forums and you will feast on delicious tears. Industry people have been forum raging about this topic since the introduction and CCP has not dared to make any adjustments to them.

Short refresher for non-industrialists: T2 items are manufactured from an invented blueprint copy that, based on success, comes from a copy of the T1 BPO + datacores + sometimes a decryptor to modify attributes of the end T2 BPC.

Owning a T2 BPO means you can bypass the invention process and manufacture with solely the T2 BPO that has unlimited runs.

Why the bitching? The majority of forum posts about T2 BPOs complain that the individuals who won them during the lottery phase print ISK.

Yes, they were very lucky and didn’t have to put down multiple billions for the BPO. Yes, they had a monopoly on T2 production. Had. The invention system, which was introduced after the lottery system, allows many people to participate in the T2 process. More competition, lower prices.

What’s the allure? For you PVP people, think of a T2 BPOs as a Titan — a giant prize that you can show off, protect, and use to enhance your infamy. When I first started getting into industry in 2008, I thought these were the win button of Eve.

Now the only way to get one is to buy one from another player, which brings me to my research. I want to show everyone that even though they do make money, the return on the investment is very poor in the majority of cases.

The Research

Below is a list of T2 BPOs that have sold on the public Eve Online forums. I used a market program to figure out the yearly profit and divided that by the sold cost to get a return.

Though you may be drawn in by the yearly profit numbers, consider the amount of ISK used to achieve that number.

A few of the BPOs seem to have a reasonable return and might even be a slightly reasonable investment if you can keep it producing 24×7. It looks like some Ammo, Mining Crystals, and Torpedo BPOs will start to turn you a profit beyond the original investment in 2-3 years. I would definitively stay away from the 5+ year items as I think a change to the invention, research, or nerfing of the T2 BPOs will most likely happen soon(tm).

A Loss?

Yes, I have found that a few (maybe 3-4%) of T2 BPOs return a loss. The ability of players to out manufacture with the Invention process sinks the profits below that of a researched T2 BPO. Keep in mind that if you own a T2 BPO, you only produce one item. During the build phase you can’t do anything else with the BPO.

The beauty of the invention framework is that you can be more flexible and can react to changing market conditions. The drawback is that there is an increase in the complexity to produce an item.

Better Methods

If you have piles of cash and want to sit idle in a manufacturing station making sure your T2 BPO is constantly in production, you might want to consider buying some. For the average industry person or corporation, it is a very poor investment.

To compare performance numbers, I am making around 8 B a month turning over 31 B. A T2 BPO, equal to around the same amount of capital, will make you 3.5-7 B a year.

Not a solid investment in my book. Put your money elsewhere.

Rage Against the Machine

I haven’t seen an idea to resolve the imbalance that I have liked yet. More on this later.

It does seem that the market impact isn’t as big as the hype indicates according to CCP Diagoras.

[update] April 4 2012

@CCP_Diagoras

The Good

93.95% of T2 Gyrostabilizers produced in March 2012 were from invention.
In March 2012, 90.23% of Hulks and 84.17% of Mackinaws produced were from invention.
89.77% of 1400mm II, 82.00% of Tachyon II, 87.34% of 425mm Rail II, 74.23% of Torpedo Launcher II produced in March were from invention.
55.25% of Improved Cloaks and 91.93% of Covert Ops Cloaks were produced via invention in March 2012.
86.81% of 220mm Vulcan Autocannons produced in March were produced through invention.

The Eh

67.85% of Sabres and 65.01% of Wolves produced in March 2012 were the from invention.
72.27% of the 2,005 Falcons produced in March 2012 were produced through invention.
66.13% of Ishtars and 63.53% of Zealots produced in March 2012 were produced via invention.

The Ugly

27.60% of Curses and 22.16% of Pilgrims produced in March 2012 were from invention.
Only 7.07% of Absolutions and 23.62% of Sleipnirs produced in March 2012 were produced through invention.
44.58% of Cerberus and 6.00% of Eagles produced in March 2012 were procuded through invention.

tl;dr

Post lottery, T2 BPOs do make very passive income for a very large price. For the time it takes to get a return on your investment, the capital could better be spent in other areas.


Botting Journey to Deep Nullsec

After seeing JonnyPew’s videos on how to fit a bomber and search for bot activity in nullsec, I set on my own journey to see if I could find them action.

His guide shows how to fit a Hound, which I cannot fly. Luckily the fitting differences between racial bombers are not that high so I changed one or two modules and bought up Nemesis fit. The total was around 36 M, which included four bombs and a compliment of torpedoes.

After looking at a few regions on Dotlan, I found a pocket of space that contained a high (inhuman) amount of NPC kills. You can easily see these by filtering for NPC Kills over the past 24 hours and seeing areas where 10,000+ NPC kills occurred.

I set course and flew out of Jita 4-4 towards the unknown, 67 jumps to be exact.

I’ve spent a far amount of time in nullsec, navigating with large fleets and going on solo roams in cloakey ships so I was confident in my ability to dodge bubble camps. I did have to pass through the N-RAEL system, which is a known hotspot as it connects Empire space to the Great Wildlands. I watched the gate and picked a quiet hour to sneak in after seeing a few industrialists go back and forth.

Pretty uneventful until I got into the destination constellation, where the locals were pretty active. The final jump laded me right into a pile of bubbles. It was clear that the locals did not want a lot of traffic to get around easily.

I found a celestial, aligned, cycled the MWD, and cloaked. When I breached the bubbles, I went into warp. I made a few safe spots and refreshed the directional scanner to get a good feeling of what was around me. There was only one Force Field on scanner, a Drake, and a few frigates.

Note: Count the number of towers and force fields listed on the directional scanner. If the count does not match, then a tower is offline and you might be able to see if any goodies were left anchored.

I’ve been hanging around the deep nullsec system for a week now, monitoring activities and taking names. I haven’t pounced on a ratter yet as every time I login, I see a lonely Drake warp to a safe POS and disconnect.