Successful invasion campaigns are run by competent FCs that have logistical backbones with access to intelligence. This dynamic can also be said about large-scale industrial projects; combining the talents from multiple pools can produce very profitable results. Liquid ISK, assets, production management, market intelligence, and a dash of luck are all needed to have great results with industry.
Over time I’ve been running copy jobs on my Obelisk BPO and performing invention jobs on the side. This collection has been growing and has caused an itch that needed to be scratched. I wanted to see these items get produced.
Lockefox @HLIBIndustry and I have been talking about a collaborative project for a few months and we finally got around to narrowing down the scope and details of the collaborative operation.
We combined my assets with Lockefox’s production management and market analysis skills in order to combine our efforts to produce multiple Jump Freighters. Within a few days Lockefox had worked out a four month production timeline stretching from the end of April until August. Not small-scale by any means as we were placing multi-billion amounts of materials into a month long production timeline.
The three Obelisk BPCs were put into invention to net more Anshar runs, but the Invention Fairy said ‘hello no’ with three failures coming in for each invention job. Overall invention success rate for Anshar jobs is coming in at 16.7%.
More updates will come as we run through the production process. Lockefox got the initial project post out yesterday so also watch his blog for updates.
I leave for two weeks and you all accidentally the market. I was not able the participate in the Odyssey speculation, but I am enjoying catching up on it.
The wild swings that we are seeing in the Moon and Ice markets due to Odyssey adjustments made me reflect on the stability of the items that I trade.
I used my historical database to come up with a report to provide quantitative insight to help give values to the items that I instinctively know are high risk. Here is a snapshot of the lower and upper items listed in my Stability Report that covers three years of trading sorted by standard deviation (σ).
Here are some general observations about the items listed:
- Basic minerals, ammo, and modules are the most stable.
- Capital modules weigh in somewhere in the middle.
- Tech2 ships fill the upper band of the report.
- Tech3 hulls and associated Subsystems are randomly spread over the middle band.
- Certain battleships are high on the report because their popularity has changed over time due to shifting fleet doctrines.
- The Procurer BPO was an item that I speculated on heavily during the last patch, which netted very positive results.
- Capital ships are subject to large swings due to mineral price changes.
A tenant of becoming a good trader is minimizing your risk while trying to maximize your rewards. My advice for new traders is to work with more stable items as shown in the shaded green area of my report; they are subject to less swing and therefore will help minimize risk. As your ISK resources grow, you can move into riskier items that will [hopefully] yield larger returns.
Thanks for all the feedback in the comments. I actually spent some time recently to figure out how to calculate item volatility here https://k162space.com/2013/08/20/hac-price-volatility/. I’m working out how to pull numbers for all my data for a new post soon.