Advertisements

Ishtar Performance Numbers

Ishtars have always been a solid performer, generating on average about 31.2M profit per trade. The nerf coming in the Hyperion release doesn’t phase me. I’ve learned that you have to roll with the punches and not let adjustments like this impact your overall trading strategy. Items move in and out of popularity over time. I’ll just stop working with the Ishtar hull for a while and see how demand changes over time.

Ishtar Hyperion release nerf devpost [link]
Reddit post [link]

2014-08-19_ishtar_jita1

2014-08-25_ishtar

Advertisements

HAC Price Volatility

Lockefox got me thinking about my instincts for trading HACs a few days ago. I have always felt the Ishtar’s price to be historically less volatile than then Zealot so I went out to run the numbers and prove my theory.

2013-08-20_twitter

Annualized Volatility

8d20ec0ca96fd6e58ccf8b99e496a9ba

P = time period

Results

The numbers show that I was correct. If you want something stable to trade, go with the Vagabond. Higher risk items include the Ishtar and Zealot hulls.

2013-08-20_hac_volatility_results

Here is a snapshot of the historical buy prices for reference.

2013-08-20_hac_prices


Item Price Stability

I leave for two weeks and you all accidentally the market. I was not able the participate in the Odyssey speculation, but I am enjoying catching up on it.

2013.05.16.19.26.13-12013.05.16.19.25.40-1

The wild swings that we are seeing in the Moon and Ice markets due to Odyssey adjustments made me reflect on the stability of the items that I trade.

I used my historical database to come up with a report to provide quantitative insight to help give values to the items that I instinctively know are high risk. Here is a snapshot of the lower and upper items listed in my Stability Report that covers three years of trading sorted by standard deviation (σ).

2013-05-15_price_detail

Here are some general observations about the items listed:

  • Basic minerals, ammo, and modules are the most stable.
  • Capital modules weigh in somewhere in the middle.
  • Tech2 ships fill the upper band of the report.
  • Tech3 hulls and associated Subsystems are randomly spread over the middle band.
  • Certain battleships are high on the report because their popularity has changed over time due to shifting fleet doctrines.
  • The Procurer BPO was an item that I speculated on heavily during the last patch, which netted very positive results.
  • Capital ships are subject to large swings due to mineral price changes.

A tenant of becoming a good trader is minimizing your risk while trying to maximize your rewards. My advice for new traders is to work with more stable items as shown in the shaded green area of my report; they are subject to less swing and therefore will help minimize risk. As your ISK resources grow, you can move into riskier items that will [hopefully] yield larger returns.

Update

Thanks for all the feedback in the comments. I actually spent some time recently to figure out how to calculate item volatility here https://k162space.com/2013/08/20/hac-price-volatility/. I’m working out how to pull numbers for all my data for a new post soon.


2012 Trading and Industry Report

Overview

Another year of growth and transitions into larger projects.

Module, gun, ship construction and trading proceeded as it did the previous year. With reliable income from trading, we expanded our operation into heavy construction by adding a Carrier construction wing to our operation.

2012-12-21_2011_vs_2012_overview1

From these numbers we can see that our operation is facing more competition as margins were slightly lower than the previous year. To overcome this, we migrated our inventory to higher per-sale profit items. The drastic change in quantity can be explained by dropping Ammo as a common trade item.

This overview shows the benefits of spreading your trade load between high ticket, low volume items and more volume centered low price items.

Quick Numbers

Q1 and Q2 saw renewed vigor into trading as I started to invest more time into logistics and product research.

Q3, July especially, was a record breaking time as I took any liquidity and moved it back into assets. This also marked our shift into high ticket items. Additionally, at this point in the year my trading partner and I had a lot of time to devote to our operation.

September into October is a busy time for me personally. I took a long vacation October and was away from Eve for a few weeks. Everyone needs a break and our performance numbers directly show this.

2012-12-21_gross_sales_and_profit

Highlights

Procurer speculation with the Inferno Patch.

Outsourcing some Highsec logistics with Red Frog Freight during busy periods.

Expanded trading into High Meta items.

Expanded construction and sales into Carrier hulls.

Invested 133 days of training into Racial Cruiser Construction V and Jury Rigging V to enable Tech 3 hull and subsystem production in the coming year.

Invention

Though there are profits in invention, I found the process of gathering materials, inventing a BPC, putting the component parts together to be uninspired; I had no real focus this year with invention. Most of the time I spent in this area was spent making Drones and increasing my stock of -1/-1 Anshar prints for a rainy day.

My two invention characters have 4-4-4 skills. I have found the training return of getting 5-4-4 or even 5-5-5 skills to marginally increase profits. Since the train time to get a Science skill to 5 is around 20 days, I have not felt the need to sink time into polishing off the skills.

I did keep a database record in order to produced the below summary of my invention statistics  The overall success average came out to be 48.2%, which falls in line with any invention guide.

2012-12-19_invention_stats

High Meta

With the addition of Faction, Deadspace, and Officer modules to the market, I saw several trading opportunities throughout the year to work with these items. I had little to no interest in using the tedious contract system to trade these items so when they were added to the general market, I rejoiced.

Here is a summary of the performance of items by Meta levels. Faction and Deadspace items traded well and brought consistent high profits.

2012-12-19_meta_stats

Escalation Barge Teiricide

With the changes to mining barges in the Escalation patch, my partner and I mainly targeted the Procurer hull as its build requirements changed the most with the patch. We speculated that the new  barges would cost more post-patch so we build a large stock before patch day.

We ended up selling 288 units for a profit of 2.48 B. We put a smaller amount of effort into Retriever hulls and managed to build and sell 44 for a profit of 431 M.

2012-12-19_tech1_industrial

Fear the Sabre

I had limited success with trading other racial Interdictors. The Sabre is the champion of them  all and hopefully we see some further balancing to these hulls in upcoming patches.

2012-12-19_interdictors

Alpha Maelstrom to Rail Rokh

This year we saw the popularity of the Alpha Maelstrom as a viable Nullsec fleet composition fade away in favor of the Rail Rokh. I was slow to react to this change and by the time I got my Rohk BPO researched to an acceptable level, the switch to the new doctrine was already underway.

2012-12-19_battleships

Rigs and Guns

The core rig types (Trimark, CCC, and Field Extender) continued to be a solid performer. If you sell a ship in an area, you should also sell related rigs to popular fits. Let this be a lesson in item cross-selling for anyone building, stocking, and selling ship hulls.

2012-12-19_rigs

The core gun types seen below also provided some income over the year.

2012-12-19_guns

GoonSwarm Shrugged, I Smiled

During the GoonSwarm Ice Interdiction, I speculated on POS fuel and turned a profit. I made 648 M doing some passive trading in Jita on Oxygen Isotopes. In addition, people started to panic and predict that other Isotopes were going to be affected also. I made some early buys on Nitrogen and then sold them off at the height of their price level.

2012-12-19_fuel

High Meta

I have focused on and found a number of High Meta items that have proven to be very profitable. I’ve blanked out the names of them because I don’t yet want to disclose the item types at this point in time.

2012-12-19_highmeta

Implants

As expected implants were a high performer.

2012-12-19_implants

Standard Modules

High volume modules provide a small source of income as working with these items means you are in a competitive and often saturated market.

The new Drone Damage Amplifier modules sold very well, but I had poor success with the Reactive Armor Hardener.

2012-12-20_modules

Batch Ammo

I have continued to have limited success with ammo. I have found the velocity of trading to be very slow which I think is due to the nature of ammo production and consumption.

Since ammo jobs are batch based (meaning that when someone runs a production job they are producing a large bath of ammo rather than a single unit), production has periods of high volume. Additionally when someone buys ammo, that person tends to buy a large stock and slowly work though the pile.

I keep stocking ammo with the intention that it will move, but I always am unimpressed by the numbers.

2012-12-20_ammo

Tier 3 Battlecruisers

The popularity of the Tier 3 BCs remains high as I was able to make a profit on every racial type of them. Surprisingly the Oracle and Talos have been outselling the Tornado.

2012-12-20_tier3_bc

HAC Favoritism

The Cerberus has remained a poor performer with no production or trading opportunities arsing this year. The Ishtar remains a strong seller as a preferred AFK mission ship while the Vagabond holds up the PVP end of the HAC spectrum. I fully agree with Kirith Kodachi’s recent comments on the upcoming rebalance initiative that will eventually hit HACs.

2012-12-20_hac

Tech 2 Logistics Falling From Grace

With the recent rebalance of Tech 1 logistics, I expect my production and trade of Tech 2 logistics ships to decline. As Jester pointed out, the proficiency of the Tech 1 variant can cheaply replicate the Tech 2 variant.

2012-12-20_logistics

Future Ventures

Champion CREST API changes and development with the community to enable 3rd party tools to flourish.

Pressure the CSM for industry and mining changes.

Though the Carrier project is new, it is proving to be profitable so we expect the expand the operation. We are going to look into Dreadnought production in addition to carriers.

Build from stockpile of Tech 3 hulls and subsystem BPCs.

Build backlog of invented Anashar BPCs.


Testing Tech 2 Invention and Production

Expanding Operations

In addition to trading, I’ve started up a small invention and Tech 2 production line. My initial approach is to start small and see how well items perform. For now I am going to be working with drones, bombers, and some popular modules. I’ve invented a few ships, but am holding off on producing them.

 

Invention Statistics 

I’m saving the invention job history to my database and wrote a small display to show overall and individual item invention success rates. I’ll add this summary to my monthly updates as I’m sure inventors will find it interesting.

Anshar Invention

My first Jump Freighter invention job was successful despite the ~39.8% calculated success rate given my 4-4-4 skills.

Attempting the job cost 36.3 M of items that are destroyed regardless of the job output:

1x Collision Measurements – 7.6 M
64x Mechanical Engineering Datacore  – 7.231 M
64x Gallente Starship Engineering Datacore – 21.438 M
Obelisk BPC – Copied from my BPO

Since I am not actively producing Freighters due to their low markup and currently dropping mineral prices, I put the Obelisk BPO back into an open copy slot. It takes around 43 days for one copy in an empire slot so you can see why Jump Freighters are slow to produce.

Further details of Jump Freighter production can be found here.


New Item Profitability over Time

Hypothesis: New items become less profitable over time.

Source Data: I picked the Noctis because I have data for 188 sales ranging from Dec/2010 to June/2012. I wanted to look at the Tier3 Battlecruisers, but I lack enough trades on these to be statistically meaningful.

The slope of the trendline suggests that the profitability is every so slightly going down. I assumed that the decline would be much greater than shown by the trendline.

Since a recently added item didn’t show a downward trend, I extend the research sampling. I picked a common item, a common ship, and a high volume item.

1. Here is the graph for 1,534 Damage Control II’s. It shows more downward profitability than the Noctis.

2. The Ishtar is a very popular ship for ratting and mission running. 112 Ishtar trades show a greater profitability decline than the Noctis.

3. The trend of 572 Cybernetic Basic implants shows a slight decline.

Conclusion: I could not prove my hypothesis with data from Noctis sales and I’m showing greater profit decline on more common items. I’ll revisit this when I have more data for the Tier3 Battlecruisers and the modules introduced in Inferno.


Journey to 100B ISK

Visions of power come in many forms in the Eve universe. Some people aspire for political wealth and the ability to spin the wheels of war with a few verbal orders. Others find power in numbers, the blinking of a wallet ever increasing towards a higher value.

I have always identified with the industry people, who wish to put disparate pieces together to create something grand. Ammo to Jump Freighters — I’ve built them all and have quite the journey.

In March of this year, I hit a new milestone as I saw my net value pass 100B for the first time.

Carebear Stare

As I reflect, I find the notion that I once held of an Iteron V being a masterful machine to be almost comical. Powerful Mining lasers from a Navitas frigate don’t seem to bring me the same thrill as before.

Now I am playing with what I consider to be the real industry and market people, who shift prices en mass and send ripples down the chain. I can now fund large conflicts and build something from nothing.

For one individual, vocal clout on comms provides wealth. For me, the work I am doing to drive conflict with money is far more entertaining.

The Vast Unknown

All journeys start with a decision that drives change. In 2008, fresh to the space opera, I found myself making small amounts of gains in highsec and eager for larger things. One day a corpmate approached me and lured me into unknown space with the promise of riches.

The introduction of wormhole space brought new fields of ABC ores to the galaxy. As my wormhole corporation climbed up the class ladder from a C3 into a C6, we grew in mining, production, and salvage efficiency.

In early 2009, the number of roaming gangs and gankers was drastically smaller than the current numbers. We would often mine for hours without seeing another incoming connection forming. The field was new and full of new mechanics that are drastically different than aged nullsec.

We used newly discovered mechanics to keep ourselves isolated.  Knowing that not warping to an outgoing connection will keep it despawned, helped keep our isolation from neighbors. When we saw a new signature from a nosy neighbor, we used the mass of our carriers and battleships to collapse the connection.

Isolation kept the Arkonor flowing and with each jetcan worth 14M ISK, our wallets fattened. We purchased carriers, a Rorqual, battleships, and funded second or third characters.

Clicking on Planets

Liquid ISK, which was created by piles of Megacyte mined in wormshole space, gave me the capital for my next venture.

I speculated heavily on the PI market before the Tyrannis patch. When NPC orders were removed, it paid off. I put 10B into NPC items such as robotics, construction blocks, coolant, and mechanical parts. As the prices peaked, I sold off the stock pushing my net worth up to 20/25B.

Market Epiphany

Another breakthrough came when I took up missioning as a side interest.

Running L4 missions.
Hmm, I need ammo and to rig this Dominix.
Hmm, why are rigs 3M more than Jita.
Hmm. Hmm. *click*
I should stock this mission hub.

Major Performers

Playing with Large CCC’s in major market hubs was my first journey into market PVP. I was able to 0.01 competitors out of the market and slowly saw the number of people competing with me in mission hubs go from 15 to maybe 5 or 6. I don’t have exact numbers, but this is my guesstimate based on the aggression of 0.01’ing.
These are the core rigs as I call them. Almost all ships will be rigged with a Trimark, CCC, or a Field Extender.As you can see, the price of them has fallen. The introduction of the Noctis has pushed rig prices down over the past year. Sadly, my profits on these items have been shrinking in line with the rig prices.
Salvage all the things! The Noctis was a huge seller for me and continues to be a powerful performer.I find that with new ship introductions, especially when the fulfill a role better than their predecessor, there is a huge amount of profit to be made. The Noctis replaced the salvage Destroyer for many people.
To my surprise the Ishtar has been a high performer. Despite not seeing these as standard nullsec doctrine ships, they sell well both in nullsec and in mission hubs. The Ishtar fills the role of your semi-AFK mission/belt ratter.
As lag remained a constant in Eve, the sheer power of an initial barrage of ammo from Maelstrom cannons took hold.In 2011 the standard T2 Alpha Maelstrom was a hot item. I have sold my BPO and reduced my involvement with battleships, mainly due to the fluctuating mineral market, yet the Alpha Maelstrom still remains a standard nullsec ship.
When people buy Capital ships in lowsec, they often want to fit their ship with a few modules. If you produce capitals in lowsec, be sure to stock the same station with common modules such as Armor Repair, Remote Armor, Remote Energy, Shield Transfers, and racial fuel. Also stock plenty of Cap Recharge and Power Relay modules as many people go for a travel fit out of their purchasing system.

Advice

Close Jita local and pretend it does not exist.

Expansions breed change. Pay attention to leaked patch notes, and review for manipulation attempts. If there is a change to loot drops proposed, get on the test server and figure out the refine value or use the static data set that CCP provides.

Stay away from the Official Eve Online forums, especially for market information. The reliability and quality of information is far too low.

Put on your tinfoil hat and join the r/eve and kugutsumen.com communities.

Read, read, read, use Excel or another tool, read, and read.

Take a risk and do something that you have never done before. Some of the most important trade data or inspiration has come out of new aspects of the game that I have never attempted before such as large 500 person fleet fights, mission running, or Incursions.