Tech 2 BPO Prices Post Crius

tl;dr Sale prices for Tech 2 BPOs are down an average of 47% after the Crius release.

Overview

Over the past few years I have been watching prices for publicly traded Tech 2 BPOs and attempting to record the values to the best of my ability.

Some sales completed non-publicly, some were vastly inflated, and some never sold. There is most certainly a lot of inaccuracy in the datapoints given the speculative nature of the Tech 2 BPO market, yet they still serve as guiding value to help us value the BPO.

The Post Crius Marketplace

The volume of posts in the official Sell Orders section of the forums are down, sellers are getting trolled, and people are re-running numbers to reprice the value of the BPOs trying to justify a much lower cost. I’ve seen a lot of CCP Dev intervention to clean up threads and keep people on topic. Overall the market is rather anemic.

Numbers

2014-11-14_tech_2_bpo_public_sale_prices

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3 Months of Manufacturing Index Changes for Deklein

I’ve started to accumulate a decent amount of daily index data and have started to use it to look at larger trends. Here’s a snapshot of Deklein region over the past 97 days.

2014-10-28_deklein_manufac_index_changes


One Month of Nullsec Manufacturing Index Changes

tl;dr The amount of Nullsec manufacturing has increased from July 23rd to August 23rd.

The evolution towards independent, self-sustainable manufacturing in Nullsec is an area of high interest to me. I want trade and manufacturing hubs to develop beyond what we have today, but given the need to import materials for invention and Tech 2 production, I don’t see it happening given the current industrial framework.

I wanted to see if the steps taken in Crius were moving us in the right direction so I turned to my data. I’ve been recording the system Index data from the API on an almost daily basis so I joined this data with sovereignty data to see if Nullsec manufacturing has been increasing.

The top 50 corporations by sum of their production have shown an increase on average of 46%. The overall change for all corporations has been 114%.

The full table is available below with conditional formatting placed on a narrow band excluding outliers to better visualize the changes.

2014-08-26-one_month_manufac_index_changes_nullsec


6 Days of Manufacturing Index Changes

The color shift indicates that manufacturing is spreading out and the landscape is starting to adjust to new levels.  67 systems have gone up more than 1% and 21 are down more than 1%.

Here’s a snapshot of the top 50 systems.

2014-07-29_manufacturing_index_trends


Initial Manufacturing Index Changes

Looking at a 24 hour range in the manufacturing index data, it looks like people have started to move out of major manufacturing centers as the top 50 list has showing a drop across the board.

2014-07-24_top_50_system_changes

Here is a look at the biggest changes in the one day period. There has been a large amount of increase in many differing systems also indicating that manufacturing is spreading out.

2014-07-24_biggest_system_changes


Initial Ranking of Top Manufacturing Regions

With manufacturing data now being exposed over the new CREST API at http://public-crest.eveonline.com/, I spend some time working with the data to see how the initial layout of the land is on the first day of the new Crius expansion.

As expected the top ten regions for manufacturing are in Highsec with the outlaying regions of nullsec barely producing anything at the moment. I’ll be monitoring changes to if things shakeup.

2014-07-23_manufacturing_by_region_v3

Focusing on the top 40 systems shows that the majority are in The Forge, Lonetrek, and The Citadel.

2014-07-23_manufacturing_by_system_v2

 


Capital Runs 1-229 (Final)

Overview

Is is more profitable to build a Carrier from BPCs or BPOs? That question was the initial spark that started my interest in capital production in 2011. Using a BPC copy pack from the market was hardly profitable so I made a plan to own and operate a set of capital BPOs.

Over time as profits started to materialize, more BPOs were purchased to round out production queues. Carrier success then started to bleed into Dreadnought production. With the upcoming industry changes in the Crius expansion, the fate of my capital operation is unknown so I have paused the project.

Here are the final numbers for almost 3 years (2.93 to be exact) of capital production. Note that Dreadnought production was a recent addition, only starting in mid-2013. Special tribute goes to my industry partner, Raath, as he was the lead on this massive project.

tl;dr Build Naglfars and Archons.

Sales

2014-06-05_hulls_by_type

2014-06-05_hulls_by_region

Performance

Naglfar sales in Delve outperformed all other types and regions yet showed the most standard deviation.

2014-06-05_hulls_by_profit_group_region

The Naglfar outperformed every other hull type when it came to profitability per time period. This is due to the balance update it received in the Odyssey update where it became a viable doctrine ship. The Archon, due to the popularity of the Slowcat doctrine, was also solid performer.

2014-06-05_capital_project_summary