CCP Greyscale Comments on Tech 2 BPOs

We got hit with two industry Devblogs today as it looks like CCP is going to try to publish all six industry related blogs before Fanfest. On page 9 for the comments for the Researching, the Future post, CCP Greyscale made a comment on how much Tech 2 BPOs dominate the market.

Right, Mastadon, Claymore, Claw etc are BPO-dominated, so in practice all this means is more throughput and (presumably) cheaper prices.

Huginn and Muninn are in the area of concern, where we might end up warping the market a little.

Broadsword’s not a concern because it was released in Trinity (winter 2007) and to the best of my knowledge we stopped putting new ship BPOs into the lottery in Revelations 1 (winter 2006). If that market’s uncompetitive, it’s because of your fellow inventors, not BPO owners ūüôā

CCP Greyscale source

This adds a little more information from what we got out of CCP Diagoras before he left CCP that I covered in my Percentage of Items from Invention vs Tech 2 BPOs post.


Historical Tech 2 BPO Prices

Disclaimer: Account for a large amount of inaccuracy with the price records that I have for Tech 2 BPO sales. The numbers that I have recorded are from scanning official and unofficial forums, chatting with industry counterparts, and some of the values have a price correction built into the value based on a ‘best guess’ from the record of a sale.

Is it better to trade or produce off of a Tech 2 BPO?

It turns out that it depends — the Tech 2 BPO market is highly speculative and subject to swings in price based on an items popularity given trends in balancing, fleet doctrines, or the sheer collectibility of the item. The prices that I have been able to record have been mostly public record. I’m sure that there is a tier of players that deal with blueprints off the record in private backchannels.

Data Scope

Taking data that I have from my previous post on Tech 2 BPO Returns, I did another scan of prices and added them to my records. This gives me a sampling of prices from 2012-03 to 2013-12, a 21 month span.

Sale Prices

The performance of each item varied so I grouped them into ships, modules, drones, and ammunition.

Ship prices are the most stable return, modules second, and then followed by drones. Ammunition seems to be a volatile market; I am not surprised with the Tech 2 BPO value over time for ammunition as I have seen similar volatility with sales as noted in my Trading Performance: Ammo post.

2013-12-18_t2_bpo_price_summary

Producing vs Investing

Using the Muninn as an example of a average performer and having the BPO in constant production would yield around 246 per year coming in at 50.683 M profit per hull, or 12.47 B a year of profit.

Our production profit would be around 1.04 B a month and my sheet on the increase of value shows the BPO increasing at 2.38 B per month. It turns out holding on to the print is more valuable than producing off of it.

tl;dr Conclusion

Invest in Tech 2 BPOs that fall under the ship and module category, produce off of them for a year, and resell the item for a higher value.


Moros Rigging Before Odyssey

Capital sized rigs are coming in the Odyssey expansion next week and they are going to cost much more than the current Large sized versions. For capital pilots that were thinking about possibly putting Tech 2 rigs on their ships, you be rigging your pre-Odyssey hull now.

I was reading over the list of changes this afternoon and almost forgot to purchase and install my own set of rigs in my Moros before the Tuesday patch. When I got home I quickly put Hybrid Weapon Rigging in the queue, and thankfully it will finish before the patch hits. I also have the extra 50,000 SP available to apply in-case I can’t make the window before patch downtime.

2013-05-31_hybrid_weapon_rigging

I looked over the GoonSwarm doctrine to pick which rigs to use. It seems that the goal with the Moros is pure DPS and to not use Trimarks to increase tank.

2013-05-31_tech2_large_rigs


Testing Tech 2 Invention and Production

Expanding Operations

In addition to trading, I’ve started up a small invention and Tech 2 production line. My initial approach is to start small and see how well items perform. For now I am going to be working with drones, bombers, and some popular modules.¬†I’ve invented a few ships, but am holding off on¬†producing¬†them.

 

Invention Statistics 

I’m saving the¬†invention¬†job history to my database and wrote a small display to show overall and¬†individual¬†item invention success rates. I’ll add this summary to my monthly updates as I’m sure inventors will find it interesting.

Anshar Invention

My first Jump Freighter invention job was successful despite the ~39.8% calculated success rate given my 4-4-4 skills.

Attempting the job cost 36.3 M of items that are destroyed regardless of the job output:

1x Collision Measurements – 7.6 M
64x Mechanical Engineering Datacore  Р7.231 M
64x Gallente Starship Engineering Datacore – 21.438 M
Obelisk BPC – Copied from my BPO

Since I am not actively producing Freighters due to their low markup and currently dropping mineral prices, I put the Obelisk BPO back into an open copy slot. It takes around 43 days for one copy in an empire slot so you can see why Jump Freighters are slow to produce.

Further details of Jump Freighter production can be found here.


Industry Dashboards

I’ve spent a lot of time designing API driven KPI style dashboards for my¬†industrial¬†operations and given the industry changes coming as detailed in the¬†Summer 2012 CSM7 minutes, I want to share my designs to (hopefully) inspire people for upcoming Winter expansion (I wonder if CCP’ers read this blog).

My mission statement with these was to use a clean, elegant format to give a high level display into my industry operations while using Eve icons and market prices. I should be able to tell the materials and price/profit for items at a glance without referring to other menus, applications, or looking up historical prices.

Industry Jobs

The below shot is active industry jobs. I want to know what is being used, who is using it, current and future ME/PE/Copy numbers, and a pretty display for the job progress.

Another dashboard that I created was capital jobs only. Since these jobs were so long, I wanted to be able to see them progress on a calendar. This has allowed me to keep idle blueprints busy and schedule large-scale builds since capital jobs require large amounts of minerals.

Though the current Eve client does display industry jobs, I find it to be inelegant.

The information displayed is all text, almost like I was reading a database table. Also, I am constantly switching between filter options as the window does not remember my past settings.

PI

When I experimented with supplementing my POS network with PI items, I wanted to be able to display my PI network. I needed to know who owned the item, what is was producing, the output quantity, and how much ISK/day that operation was making.

Additionally, I did some work with the database table for PI items (wonderful self-referencing table) to show me what items up the PI T0 to T3 tree I can currently make given what I am extracting. The page ends up being quite long as it displays all tiers so I cropped this shot after T2. The red marks next to the T1 items mean that I don’t have the T1 items in stock so I can’t make the resultant T2 item.

This is a great example of my ‘high level’ approach. I can now easily answer the question of “can I make Robotics?”. No, I need to be making this at T1 and this at T2. I don’t have to spend time looking at blueprints and their requirements — no¬†additional¬†pages or¬†reference¬†material.

Tech 2 Production

Tech 2 manufacturing can get quite complicated. I was spending a lot of time checking what I had in stock, the build requirements, and final costs. This page gives me the ability to simply move a blueprint from the left column (stock) to the right (build queue) and it queries the database to display everything that I need to make that item.

Multiple blueprints can be added to the queue and materials are aggregated together. This allowed me to place all my blueprints in a queue and create a shopping list of things I need to create the run.

Capital Production

The same story continues for capital ships. I can select my BPO/BPC, the ME level, the character producing it, and the production station. When the location is picked the bottom panes pull from the assets and tell me what I have in stock and what I need in order to complete the job.

Industry Advancement

I want to see a reduction in the amount of clicks and an increase in the amount of user feedback and intelligence given to the user. The displays should not just be a simple static display. They should be more dynamic — pull from your inventory when you select a production system and tell me what I need, display a build quote that doesn’t require me to have all the items or know their build¬†requirements, and use the new Inferno universal market price for items.