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CCP Greyscale Comments on Tech 2 BPOs

We got hit with two industry Devblogs today as it looks like CCP is going to try to publish all six industry related blogs before Fanfest. On page 9 for the comments for the Researching, the Future post, CCP Greyscale made a comment on how much Tech 2 BPOs dominate the market.

Right, Mastadon, Claymore, Claw etc are BPO-dominated, so in practice all this means is more throughput and (presumably) cheaper prices.

Huginn and Muninn are in the area of concern, where we might end up warping the market a little.

Broadsword’s not a concern because it was released in Trinity (winter 2007) and to the best of my knowledge we stopped putting new ship BPOs into the lottery in Revelations 1 (winter 2006). If that market’s uncompetitive, it’s because of your fellow inventors, not BPO owners ūüôā

CCP Greyscale source

This adds a little more information from what we got out of CCP Diagoras before he left CCP that I covered in my Percentage of Items from Invention vs Tech 2 BPOs post.

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Historical Tech 2 BPO Prices

Disclaimer: Account for a large amount of inaccuracy with the price records that I have for Tech 2 BPO sales. The numbers that I have recorded are from scanning official and unofficial forums, chatting with industry counterparts, and some of the values have a price correction built into the value based on a ‘best guess’ from the record of a sale.

Is it better to trade or produce off of a Tech 2 BPO?

It turns out that it depends — the Tech 2 BPO market is highly speculative and subject to swings in price based on an items popularity given trends in balancing, fleet doctrines, or the sheer collectibility of the item. The prices that I have been able to record have been mostly public record. I’m sure that there is a tier of players that deal with blueprints off the record in private backchannels.

Data Scope

Taking data that I have from my previous post on Tech 2 BPO Returns, I did another scan of prices and added them to my records. This gives me a sampling of prices from 2012-03 to 2013-12, a 21 month span.

Sale Prices

The performance of each item varied so I grouped them into ships, modules, drones, and ammunition.

Ship prices are the most stable return, modules second, and then followed by drones. Ammunition seems to be a volatile market; I am not surprised with the Tech 2 BPO value over time for ammunition as I have seen similar volatility with sales as noted in my Trading Performance: Ammo post.

2013-12-18_t2_bpo_price_summary

Producing vs Investing

Using the Muninn as an example of a average performer and having the BPO in constant production would yield around 246 per year coming in at 50.683 M profit per hull, or 12.47 B a year of profit.

Our production profit would be around 1.04 B a month and my sheet on the increase of value shows the BPO increasing at 2.38 B per month. It turns out holding on to the print is more valuable than producing off of it.

tl;dr Conclusion

Invest in Tech 2 BPOs that fall under the ship and module category, produce off of them for a year, and resell the item for a higher value.


Moros Rigging Before Odyssey

Capital sized rigs are coming in the Odyssey expansion next week and they are going to cost much more than the current Large sized versions. For capital pilots that were thinking about possibly putting Tech 2 rigs on their ships, you be rigging your pre-Odyssey hull now.

I was reading over the list of changes this afternoon and almost forgot to purchase and install my own set of rigs in my Moros before the Tuesday patch. When I got home I quickly put Hybrid Weapon Rigging in the queue, and thankfully it will finish before the patch hits. I also have the extra 50,000 SP available to apply in-case I can’t make the window before patch downtime.

2013-05-31_hybrid_weapon_rigging

I looked over the GoonSwarm doctrine to pick which rigs to use. It seems that the goal with the Moros is pure DPS and to not use Trimarks to increase tank.

2013-05-31_tech2_large_rigs


Testing Tech 2 Invention and Production

Expanding Operations

In addition to trading, I’ve started up a small invention and Tech 2 production line. My initial approach is to start small and see how well items perform. For now I am going to be working with drones, bombers, and some popular modules.¬†I’ve invented a few ships, but am holding off on¬†producing¬†them.

 

Invention Statistics 

I’m saving the¬†invention¬†job history to my database and wrote a small display to show overall and¬†individual¬†item invention success rates. I’ll add this summary to my monthly updates as I’m sure inventors will find it interesting.

Anshar Invention

My first Jump Freighter invention job was successful despite the ~39.8% calculated success rate given my 4-4-4 skills.

Attempting the job cost 36.3 M of items that are destroyed regardless of the job output:

1x Collision Measurements – 7.6 M
64x Mechanical Engineering Datacore  Р7.231 M
64x Gallente Starship Engineering Datacore – 21.438 M
Obelisk BPC – Copied from my BPO

Since I am not actively producing Freighters due to their low markup and currently dropping mineral prices, I put the Obelisk BPO back into an open copy slot. It takes around 43 days for one copy in an empire slot so you can see why Jump Freighters are slow to produce.

Further details of Jump Freighter production can be found here.


Industry Dashboards

I’ve spent a lot of time designing API driven KPI style dashboards for my¬†industrial¬†operations and given the industry changes coming as detailed in the¬†Summer 2012 CSM7 minutes, I want to share my designs to (hopefully) inspire people for upcoming Winter expansion (I wonder if CCP’ers read this blog).

My mission statement with these was to use a clean, elegant format to give a high level display into my industry operations while using Eve icons and market prices. I should be able to tell the materials and price/profit for items at a glance without referring to other menus, applications, or looking up historical prices.

Industry Jobs

The below shot is active industry jobs. I want to know what is being used, who is using it, current and future ME/PE/Copy numbers, and a pretty display for the job progress.

Another dashboard that I created was capital jobs only. Since these jobs were so long, I wanted to be able to see them progress on a calendar. This has allowed me to keep idle blueprints busy and schedule large-scale builds since capital jobs require large amounts of minerals.

Though the current Eve client does display industry jobs, I find it to be inelegant.

The information displayed is all text, almost like I was reading a database table. Also, I am constantly switching between filter options as the window does not remember my past settings.

PI

When I experimented with supplementing my POS network with PI items, I wanted to be able to display my PI network. I needed to know who owned the item, what is was producing, the output quantity, and how much ISK/day that operation was making.

Additionally, I did some work with the database table for PI items (wonderful self-referencing table) to show me what items up the PI T0 to T3 tree I can currently make given what I am extracting. The page ends up being quite long as it displays all tiers so I cropped this shot after T2. The red marks next to the T1 items mean that I don’t have the T1 items in stock so I can’t make the resultant T2 item.

This is a great example of my ‘high level’ approach. I can now easily answer the question of “can I make Robotics?”. No, I need to be making this at T1 and this at T2. I don’t have to spend time looking at blueprints and their requirements — no¬†additional¬†pages or¬†reference¬†material.

Tech 2 Production

Tech 2 manufacturing can get quite complicated. I was spending a lot of time checking what I had in stock, the build requirements, and final costs. This page gives me the ability to simply move a blueprint from the left column (stock) to the right (build queue) and it queries the database to display everything that I need to make that item.

Multiple blueprints can be added to the queue and materials are aggregated together. This allowed me to place all my blueprints in a queue and create a shopping list of things I need to create the run.

Capital Production

The same story continues for capital ships. I can select my BPO/BPC, the ME level, the character producing it, and the production station. When the location is picked the bottom panes pull from the assets and tell me what I have in stock and what I need in order to complete the job.

Industry Advancement

I want to see a reduction in the amount of clicks and an increase in the amount of user feedback and intelligence given to the user. The displays should not just be a simple static display. They should be more dynamic — pull from your inventory when you select a production system and tell me what I need, display a build quote that doesn’t require me to have all the items or know their build¬†requirements, and use the new Inferno universal market price for items.


July Financial Report

Overview

June and July were periods of rapid growth, both in terms of buying power and activity spread. I’m now able to have my fingers in more markets and more item types, helping to spread the risk.

Graphs!

Out performing the liner projection the past three months.

My purchase sprees have grown in volume over the past few months. They keep topping out at larger amounts.  18.5, 21.1, 25.2, and now 25.5 B purchased in a single day. I love seeing the holding account balance go up, but liquid ISK is idle ISK. Throw is back into the market unless you are accruing a balance for a project.

Major Points

1. New milestone reached as I moved 103.7 B ISK this month.

Subscribing to the Bulk Trade mailing list has fueled buying in large quantities. Why buy two Scimitars off the market when you can buy 20 and get a discount?

2. Speculation on Cobalt

I logged into Jita about 35 minutes after the Devblog was posted citing changes to Alchemy. At this time the majority of Cobalt was off the market, so I was only able to get 26k units @ 1,580 (41.7 M) and then I foolishly bought 15k units @ 7,000 (110.7 M).

As of this¬†writing, Cobalt is sitting at 2,800 in Jita so I highly doubt that I was turn a profit on these speculative trades. I didn’t run the numbers after the announcement so I’ll accept the loss on this.

Despite the loss, it was fun to refresh the markets and watch the speculation drive prices. I hope for more changes to the moon market this fall.

3. Mobile Application

This has proven to be a powerful way to remain connected to the market. I’m currently able to monitor sales and purchases. This lets me keep mental notes of what needs to be restocked or adjusted. In the future we hope to expand it with more Android style touch options.

Some ideas that we have been throwing around is that of a cart. If you are about to sell out of an item, it will shade the row and holding down on the row will bring up an action menu. You can look up history, item trading performance, or add the item to a restock cart.

4. Industrial Partner

Raath, the author of Staticmapper and DRK Industry Tracker, and I are forming an industry and trading partnership. I’m taking my idle stack of blueprints and putting them to use.

We’re polishing off our invention and Tech3 production skills so we can start to mass produce ships and modules. *sigh* do you know that it is going to take 50+ days to be able to produce a Tengu hull and Subsystems?

Idle blueprints

Invention skills

5. Implants

The adjustments to Faction Warfare rewards killed profits on¬†implants¬†for me for over a month. I waited for the price to adjust and am back to trading these in high volumes again. In the past month implants are back in my highest performing group and I’ve moved 2,880 implants in the past 30 days.

6. Wallet Manager

For those of you that have been asking about my Wallet Manager program I have good news. A group of developers is using inspiration from our team and is coding up a public version for everyone. I chat with them daily on irc.coldfront.net and will have a post about this once we have some public-facing content.

The Future

I’m going to get my new partner, Raath, up to speed on the trade operation. He is¬†bringing¬†a large number of production alts so I’m looking forward to putting all our idle blueprints to use.


Percentage of Items from Invention vs Tech 2 BPOs

A while ago CCP Diagoras posted some statistics on Twitter for the percentage of items that come from Invention vs Tech 2 BPOs to help quell the tinfoil hat theories that Tech 2 BPOs control the entire market. I recorded and sorted the tweets, but never released them.

What does this mean for you as an inventor looking at the market? Well, you will most likely want to stay away from the red items as the Tech 2 BPO owners have a stronger control on the price and can undercut you below your profitability threshold.

If you are interested in further Tech 2 BPO research that I have conducted, take a look at the T2 BPO Returns post.