July Financial Report

Overview

June and July were periods of rapid growth, both in terms of buying power and activity spread. I’m now able to have my fingers in more markets and more item types, helping to spread the risk.

Graphs!

Out performing the liner projection the past three months.

My purchase sprees have grown in volume over the past few months. They keep topping out at larger amounts.  18.5, 21.1, 25.2, and now 25.5 B purchased in a single day. I love seeing the holding account balance go up, but liquid ISK is idle ISK. Throw is back into the market unless you are accruing a balance for a project.

Major Points

1. New milestone reached as I moved 103.7 B ISK this month.

Subscribing to the Bulk Trade mailing list has fueled buying in large quantities. Why buy two Scimitars off the market when you can buy 20 and get a discount?

2. Speculation on Cobalt

I logged into Jita about 35 minutes after the Devblog was posted citing changes to Alchemy. At this time the majority of Cobalt was off the market, so I was only able to get 26k units @ 1,580 (41.7 M) and then I foolishly bought 15k units @ 7,000 (110.7 M).

As of this writing, Cobalt is sitting at 2,800 in Jita so I highly doubt that I was turn a profit on these speculative trades. I didn’t run the numbers after the announcement so I’ll accept the loss on this.

Despite the loss, it was fun to refresh the markets and watch the speculation drive prices. I hope for more changes to the moon market this fall.

3. Mobile Application

This has proven to be a powerful way to remain connected to the market. I’m currently able to monitor sales and purchases. This lets me keep mental notes of what needs to be restocked or adjusted. In the future we hope to expand it with more Android style touch options.

Some ideas that we have been throwing around is that of a cart. If you are about to sell out of an item, it will shade the row and holding down on the row will bring up an action menu. You can look up history, item trading performance, or add the item to a restock cart.

4. Industrial Partner

Raath, the author of Staticmapper and DRK Industry Tracker, and I are forming an industry and trading partnership. I’m taking my idle stack of blueprints and putting them to use.

We’re polishing off our invention and Tech3 production skills so we can start to mass produce ships and modules. *sigh* do you know that it is going to take 50+ days to be able to produce a Tengu hull and Subsystems?

Idle blueprints

Invention skills

5. Implants

The adjustments to Faction Warfare rewards killed profits on implants for me for over a month. I waited for the price to adjust and am back to trading these in high volumes again. In the past month implants are back in my highest performing group and I’ve moved 2,880 implants in the past 30 days.

6. Wallet Manager

For those of you that have been asking about my Wallet Manager program I have good news. A group of developers is using inspiration from our team and is coding up a public version for everyone. I chat with them daily on irc.coldfront.net and will have a post about this once we have some public-facing content.

The Future

I’m going to get my new partner, Raath, up to speed on the trade operation. He is bringing a large number of production alts so I’m looking forward to putting all our idle blueprints to use.


Percentage of Items from Invention vs Tech 2 BPOs

A while ago CCP Diagoras posted some statistics on Twitter for the percentage of items that come from Invention vs Tech 2 BPOs to help quell the tinfoil hat theories that Tech 2 BPOs control the entire market. I recorded and sorted the tweets, but never released them.

What does this mean for you as an inventor looking at the market? Well, you will most likely want to stay away from the red items as the Tech 2 BPO owners have a stronger control on the price and can undercut you below your profitability threshold.

If you are interested in further Tech 2 BPO research that I have conducted, take a look at the T2 BPO Returns post.


Trading Performance Statistics by Meta Level

Since the addition of higher level meta items to the market, I have started to find a few niche markets and experiment with trading them on the open market as opposed to the contract market. I knew they were producing a greater return than standard tech 1/2 items, but I wanted to quantify that value.

I used the following database query to get the average margin by meta level for the past 120 days of trading.

SELECT invMetaTypes.metaGroupID, invMetaGroups.metaGroupName, AVG((profit / (price * quantity))) * 100 as averageMargin
 FROM wallet
 JOIN invMetaTypes ON (wallet.typeID = invMetaTypes.typeID)
 JOIN invMetaGroups ON (invMetaTypes.metaGroupID = invMetaGroups.metaGroupID)
 WHERE transactionDateTime > DATE_SUB(CURDATE(),INTERVAL 120 DAY)
 GROUP BY invMetaTypes.metaGroupID
 ORDER BY metaGroupID

It turns out that trading in Deadspace items has been really profitable. Though the sample base for Deadspace is considerably smaller than tech 1/2, the margins have been consistently high.

I have not worked with any Officer modules yet.

Table data in a nice chart.

Profit % By Meta Level with Standard Deviation

Though it did not terribly skew the results, the tech 1 value was influenced by  high margins from the new Drone Damage Amplifier I modules that are returning a 92.6% profit.


2011 Trading and Industry Report

This post serves as an expansion on the 2011 Trading and Industry Reflection post where I outline some of the high level items that brought success to my efforts in 2011. After some further database work, I created a page that shows items in groups on a more granular level.

Q: How was your list created?

I spent a lot of time looking at items that are consumed for mission runners, PVP, and nullsec fleet doctrines.

Q: I might want to take a stab at creating a report of my own. How did you create this page?

All the items have been manually entered into an array.

...
'12773', //Barrage M
'191',//Fusion M
'193',// EMP M
...

The array is then used in a very non-optimized query to produce volume and profit numbers over the past 365 days.

$eveDate = $this->getEveTimeSql();
$sql = ('SELECT typeID, typeName, sum( profit ) AS totalProfit, sum( quantity ) AS totalVolume
				FROM wallet
				WHERE DATE( transactionDateTime ) > DATE_SUB( DATE( :eveDate ), INTERVAL 365
				DAY )
				AND personal = 0
				AND transactionType = "sell"
				AND typeID = :typeID
				GROUP BY typeID
				ORDER BY totalProfit DESC');

956 x 2993 report page:

Q: What happened with the Improved Cloaking Device II?

I fat fingered the sell price and was off by a power. Whoops.

Q: Surprises or unexpected trends?

I was completely floored by the amount of Capital Shield Transports that I was able to move in 2011. The new Tier3 BCs did not sell as well as I expected.

Q: Why didn’t you trade xxx or yyy?

There are still a lot of markets that I need to test out.

If you have any more questions, please ask!