Advertisements

Inferno 1.2 Procurer BPO Speculation

Background

Along with the rebalancing the roles of the mining barges, their mineral requirements were also adjusted. The build requirements for the Tech 1 barges about doubled and therefore the BPO NPC price was adjusted to reflect the new value.

Here is my research on buying Procurer BPOs at pre-Inferno 1.2 prices to sell after the patch.

[Aug 9 update] It looks like CCP changed the NPC price in the Inferno 1.2.1 patch.

ORE Space

Since these BPOs are only seeded in the Outer Ring in two ORE stations, I was able to get a good view on how many were bought by using the market window.

Out of normal BPO purchases in ORE space amounted to 1,264 units starting in late July.

Patch Changes

CCP changed the values before going live. They had a different number published on the Test server and knowingly seeded a different value on the live server. *shakes fist*

Other Barges

I looked considered the increase in BPO price, the new role, market velocity, and added in a little bit of my own gut feeling. This showed that the Procurer BPO was the item with the most potential for profit.

ISK Injection

Given that these were purchased for 450 M and are now worth 0.508 B 0.838 B that means 73.3 B 491 B was created from nothing, or about 0.3% 2% of the normal 24 T ISK faucet amount stated in the 2012 Fanfest presentation. This amount doesn’t seem too noteworthy.

Speculating on Profits

In 76 days about 124 pre-Inferno 1.2 Procurer BPOs moved in Jita slightly above their NPC price of 450 M. If 1,264 out of normal units and around 561 move in Jita in the same time period, that means it will take about 1,118 days (3.06 years) for this stock to clear assuming that demand remains the same.

Twenty BPOs

I bought 20 Procurer BPOs at the old NPC price for a total investment of 9 B. Taking in account the new price of 0.508 B 0.838 B, we can value them at 10.16 B 16.8 B. This shows a 1.16 B 7.76 B increase in the NPC value of the items. I was expecting more profit, but that’s what you get when you speculate on patch day.

I have a few options on how to turn a profit with the BPOs:

  1. Sell them in Jita. I believe that due to the market saturation with pre-Inferno 1.2 prints, it will be a while before we start to see the new NPC cost in Jita of 0.508 B 0.838 B + a good margin. I could slowly sell the stock off as prices rise.
  2. Improve value by researching them and then sell.
  3. Produce BPCs for invention/manufacturing. As of this writing, there are not a lot of BPCs available on the open market.

I plan on doing all three to help spread the risk and start to get a return on this speculation adventure.

Advertisements

13 Comments on “Inferno 1.2 Procurer BPO Speculation”

  1. Belloche says:

    Did you account for the NPC price reset that happens with a major patch? Remember that npc sell orders normally sell at around aprox 10% discount after a while. Before inferno 1.2 the base price of the BPO was probably around 490M. After the Patch, the base price is the starting point and since people were buying the bpo the price went up from there. If they adjusted it upwards they might have adjusted it from 490 to maybe 500. After I while, I bet that the npc sell price will drop to be a lot closer to 450M.

  2. Yeah its risky to speculate as it can go either way or not be as profitable as previously calculated it could be. But thats the game we all play Trading and speculating in the markets.

    Hope you get them all moved. I’m assuming there are others who did the same thing and bought up lots of the BPO’s as well.

    I myself picked up the Procurer about 2 weeks ago in Jita at what i considered a bargin price knowing what it sold for at ORE for 479 M. Considering prices of it has gone up I got it at a very good deal for added asset. Especially since that very BPO is baking in the oven with about 48 new Procurers being made lol. A few days ago I acquired the Retriever BPO from the Outer Ring via A Scientist In EVE who went out there and picked me up one on and contracted it to me for a little premium of 925 M. Again considering prices have gone up on both I call that a good investment getting them ahead of time both.

    I’ll imagine there will be quite a bit of people buying the BPO’s more especially the Procurer and soon flood the market with even more of them. Kinda like post Crucible with the Teir 3 BC’s.

  3. Bede says:

    game needs more isk sinks…

  4. OutOf Bound says:

    Check again. ORE BPO prices are on the rise. Procurer is around 620M ATM.

  5. OutOf Bound says:

    Correction to my previous post: 750M/ea and still rising.

  6. OutOf Bound says:

    They were not changed in 1.2.1, but slowly rose because NPC prices were not reset. With every purchase in the last 30 hours they strived to match the new base price.

    • Blake says:

      Interesting. I had no idea the mechanic worked that way.

      • OutOf Bound says:

        Neither did I, it’s what I observed, and some long playing people were not expecting this as well. Maybe CCP forgot to reset the prices and normal mechanics kicked in to fix the variation in prices.

  7. monaclegeraffe says:

    > Given that these were purchased for 450 M and are now worth 0.508 B 0.838 B that means 73.3 B 491 B was created from nothing, or about 0.3% 2% of the normal 24 T ISK faucet amount stated in the 2012 Fanfest presentation.

    Sorry to nitpick, but this is not an “isk faucet”. No new isk entered the system. Isk may enter *your wallet* if you sell the BPO, but that isk comes from another player, and they had it before.

  8. Madher0 says:

    Back in May before the patch the BPO prices for the Procurer in Null sec was 450 mil isk… We bought 20 BPO’s down there and manufactored more then a 1000. With the surplus of Procurer on the market and mineral prices still rising, we decided to wait for the dust to settle before selling are stock pile. We exspect to profit over 3.2 billion isk from the 1000 Procurers built pre-Inferno 1.2,

  9. […] a previous post, I described the research and assumptions that lead me to speculate on the prices of Procurer BPOs. […]

  10. […] Initial Speculation Research Speculation Results […]


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s