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Procurer BPO Speculation Results

In a previous post, I described the research and assumptions that lead me to speculate on the prices of Procurer BPOs. After 5 weeks, I’ve been able to sell off some of the BPOs for a nice profit.

Market speculation in Eve is high risk and high reward. I always proceed cautiously and try to verify as much of the speculation discourse as possible before making a move. At any moment, CCP could make a change and all your research will be moot.

tl;dr

I was able to offload 6 out of 20 BPOs after the 1.2 Inferno patch for a nice profit.

Quick Results

20 total BPOs purchased at the old NPC price of 450 M:

  • 6 BPOs sold in Jita at rising prices for a profit of 3.8 B
  • 2 BPOs on sale in Jita
  • 2 BPOs in copy slots to make BPCs for future Invention jobs
  • 10 BPOs remain idle in the hangar

Jita Market Post Change

The market reaction went as expected. Pre-patch there was a lot of market activity as news got out about the change. Market speculators got in and started to buy up stock.

After the patch, the BPO price slowly rose towards the new NPC price, a few large players came in to reset the price to a new plateau, and the volume of trade decreased as demand went down.

The key to a good speculative move is to get into the market while the price is the same or unchanged and then attempt to sell off your stock before the level of trade leaves you with dead stock.

The top highlight was me winning the 0.01 ISK game of the Jita market.

On the 26th, a trader with a lot of cash came in and reset the price to closer to the new BPO NPC price. I moved 3 out of 6 of my sales on this date.

Here’s a snapshot of my trades including the profit.

The Future

I’m sitting on 10 idle BPOs at this point. Since my pressure to convert these to liquid ISK is low, I will keep them in my hangar. I am in no rush to sell these off and I can put them into other industry ventures, such as copying or Skiff invention.

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Inferno 1.2 Procurer BPO Speculation

Background

Along with the rebalancing the roles of the mining barges, their mineral requirements were also adjusted. The build requirements for the Tech 1 barges about doubled and therefore the BPO NPC price was adjusted to reflect the new value.

Here is my research on buying Procurer BPOs at pre-Inferno 1.2 prices to sell after the patch.

[Aug 9 update] It looks like CCP changed the NPC price in the Inferno 1.2.1 patch.

ORE Space

Since these BPOs are only seeded in the Outer Ring in two ORE stations, I was able to get a good view on how many were bought by using the market window.

Out of normal BPO purchases in ORE space amounted to 1,264 units starting in late July.

Patch Changes

CCP changed the values before going live. They had a different number published on the Test server and knowingly seeded a different value on the live server. *shakes fist*

Other Barges

I looked considered the increase in BPO price, the new role, market velocity, and added in a little bit of my own gut feeling. This showed that the Procurer BPO was the item with the most potential for profit.

ISK Injection

Given that these were purchased for 450 M and are now worth 0.508 B 0.838 B that means 73.3 B 491 B was created from nothing, or about 0.3% 2% of the normal 24 T ISK faucet amount stated in the 2012 Fanfest presentation. This amount doesn’t seem too noteworthy.

Speculating on Profits

In 76 days about 124 pre-Inferno 1.2 Procurer BPOs moved in Jita slightly above their NPC price of 450 M. If 1,264 out of normal units and around 561 move in Jita in the same time period, that means it will take about 1,118 days (3.06 years) for this stock to clear assuming that demand remains the same.

Twenty BPOs

I bought 20 Procurer BPOs at the old NPC price for a total investment of 9 B. Taking in account the new price of 0.508 B 0.838 B, we can value them at 10.16 B 16.8 B. This shows a 1.16 B 7.76 B increase in the NPC value of the items. I was expecting more profit, but that’s what you get when you speculate on patch day.

I have a few options on how to turn a profit with the BPOs:

  1. Sell them in Jita. I believe that due to the market saturation with pre-Inferno 1.2 prints, it will be a while before we start to see the new NPC cost in Jita of 0.508 B 0.838 B + a good margin. I could slowly sell the stock off as prices rise.
  2. Improve value by researching them and then sell.
  3. Produce BPCs for invention/manufacturing. As of this writing, there are not a lot of BPCs available on the open market.

I plan on doing all three to help spread the risk and start to get a return on this speculation adventure.


Inferno 1.2 Mining Barge Speculation

After reviewing the changes to Mining Barges and Exhumers on the test server that Lukas Box detailed, it was time to make a market move before the patch hit.

Speculation had driven up the price of barges to the new expected price after the 1.2 patch, but the BPO on Tranquility still had the original requirements.

We purchased 3x Procurer and 1x Retriever BPOs, found empty build slots a few jumps out from Jita, and began to build. Even selling directly to buy order gave us a good return on the simple Tech 1 construction. We moved 288x Procurer and 45x Retriever ships since the announcement of the barge changes and still have some stock left over made with the pre-Inferno 1.2 BPOs.


Inferno 1.1

Unofficial change list is up here on the forums.

Patch Size: 718 MB

JonnyPew, one of my favorite Eve video makers, has some great videos of the Minmatar V3 update on youtube.


May Financial Report

tl;dr Charts

Things are going great!

May Challenges

Since I missed my April update, this report will contain some events from April.

Overall the Inferno patch cycle brought a large amount of change in the form of market speculation:

Drone mineral drops were removed, market and macro bots were banned, RMT was again cracked down on, Vanguard sites were nerfed, Technetium prices were controlled, faction/deadspace/officer items were added to the market, Nocxium’s artifical price ceiling was removed, and datacores were moved to Faction Warfare. Whew.

All these changes combined with the Burn Jita and Hulkageddon V event meant that prices were volatile.

Major Points

I have joined TEST and have been working with their market division, which seems to be a perfect fit for me. TEST has a very savvy development group that has no trouble coding up sites to manage our efforts.

In April at a Eve meetup, I met another trader who mainly operates in the North with an operation about 8x my size. It was a lot of fun to talk shop with another trader. I think we bored the PVP’ers while we rambled on about margins, hauling, bulk orders, and general logistics. I have apparently made a name for myself because she said, “oh you’re the Blake I’ve heard about — yes, I know about you.”

Order highlighting has improved the speed and accuracy at which I can update orders. I spend about 20 minutes a day total broken into two sessions updating prices. I tend to update after downtime and around 23:00, which is US prime.

Stats @CCP_Diagoras Style

172,592,790,045 sold so far in 2012.
35,912,308,945 profit so far in 2012.
12,340 transactions so far in 2012.
2,921,500.42 average profit per transaction in 2012.
10,843,867.01 standard deviation per transaction in 2012.
Top item by quantity was Tritanium with 90,272,146 sold for a profit of 306,018,174.
Worst profitable item was 1600mm Reinforced Rolled Tungsten Plates I where I lost 49,869,884.
Best trading day on May 5th with a total profit of 1.24 B beating out Oct 24, 2011 at 793 M when I sold a Jump Freighter I build from scratch.

The Future

Keep doing what I am doing and keep putting liquid ISK back into the market.

I spent some money and picked up 305 Tech 3 Subsystem BPCs. The return isn’t that high, so I might put this project off for a later date or work with a production partner to complete the batch.

The addition of officer/deadspace/faction items has opened up new area of trading. I have been having good success with these and am slowing building my list of items to watch.

New modules are almost always insanely profitable. The addition of the new Inferno modules have so far proven to be very lucrative.


Eve Dust Integration Begins

We’re starting to see the beginnings of the Dust world in Eve.

Included in the Inferno Image dump are a bunch of Dust asset images. What’s interesting to me is that they are included in the image set that is used for icons — like the Neocom icon or the Science & Industry icon. There is a different image series for all the unique assets such as the Drake or a 1MN MicroWarpdrive II.

These images are from Inferno_1.0_Icons.zip in the Community Toolkit. (Ninja edit: I also found these icons in the Escalation image dump)

Another interesting item is that there is now a ‘Mercenary Bases’ type on the Overview filter.

I haven’t found any Dust related items in the static SQL data so if you find something, let me know. Time to put on your tinfoil hats and let the speculation game begin!


No New Taxes

Increased taxes are coming with the Inferno patch.

Market tax has been increased from 1% to 1.5% as a part of our initiative to keep the EVE economy healthy.
Inferno Patch Notes

This change won’t be too detrimental for me. I do fear for the smaller trader that has to work with <5% margins.

This change is part of their desire to add more ISK sinks to the game as noted during the 2012 Fanfest Economy presentation. During this presentation CCP showed that 50 T ISK was flowing in and 26 T out resulting in a net flow of +24 T ISK per month.

Adjusting a tax value is a very easy change with a large impact. More low-hanging fruit items to check off their list.