Procurer BPO Speculation Results

In a previous post, I described the research and assumptions that lead me to speculate on the prices of Procurer BPOs. After 5 weeks, I’ve been able to sell off some of the BPOs for a nice profit.

Market speculation in Eve is high risk and high reward. I always proceed cautiously and try to verify as much of the speculation discourse as possible before making a move. At any moment, CCP could make a change and all your research will be moot.

tl;dr

I was able to offload 6 out of 20 BPOs after the 1.2 Inferno patch for a nice profit.

Quick Results

20 total BPOs purchased at the old NPC price of 450 M:

  • 6 BPOs sold in Jita at rising prices for a profit of 3.8 B
  • 2 BPOs on sale in Jita
  • 2 BPOs in copy slots to make BPCs for future Invention jobs
  • 10 BPOs remain idle in the hangar

Jita Market Post Change

The market reaction went as expected. Pre-patch there was a lot of market activity as news got out about the change. Market speculators got in and started to buy up stock.

After the patch, the BPO price slowly rose towards the new NPC price, a few large players came in to reset the price to a new plateau, and the volume of trade decreased as demand went down.

The key to a good speculative move is to get into the market while the price is the same or unchanged and then attempt to sell off your stock before the level of trade leaves you with dead stock.

The top highlight was me winning the 0.01 ISK game of the Jita market.

On the 26th, a trader with a lot of cash came in and reset the price to closer to the new BPO NPC price. I moved 3 out of 6 of my sales on this date.

Here’s a snapshot of my trades including the profit.

The Future

I’m sitting on 10 idle BPOs at this point. Since my pressure to convert these to liquid ISK is low, I will keep them in my hangar. I am in no rush to sell these off and I can put them into other industry ventures, such as copying or Skiff invention.


Inferno 1.2 Procurer BPO Speculation

Background

Along with the rebalancing the roles of the mining barges, their mineral requirements were also adjusted. The build requirements for the Tech 1 barges about doubled and therefore the BPO NPC price was adjusted to reflect the new value.

Here is my research on buying Procurer BPOs at pre-Inferno 1.2 prices to sell after the patch.

[Aug 9 update] It looks like CCP changed the NPC price in the Inferno 1.2.1 patch.

ORE Space

Since these BPOs are only seeded in the Outer Ring in two ORE stations, I was able to get a good view on how many were bought by using the market window.

Out of normal BPO purchases in ORE space amounted to 1,264 units starting in late July.

Patch Changes

CCP changed the values before going live. They had a different number published on the Test server and knowingly seeded a different value on the live server. *shakes fist*

Other Barges

I looked considered the increase in BPO price, the new role, market velocity, and added in a little bit of my own gut feeling. This showed that the Procurer BPO was the item with the most potential for profit.

ISK Injection

Given that these were purchased for 450 M and are now worth 0.508 B 0.838 B that means 73.3 B 491 B was created from nothing, or about 0.3% 2% of the normal 24 T ISK faucet amount stated in the 2012 Fanfest presentation. This amount doesn’t seem too noteworthy.

Speculating on Profits

In 76 days about 124 pre-Inferno 1.2 Procurer BPOs moved in Jita slightly above their NPC price of 450 M. If 1,264 out of normal units and around 561 move in Jita in the same time period, that means it will take about 1,118 days (3.06 years) for this stock to clear assuming that demand remains the same.

Twenty BPOs

I bought 20 Procurer BPOs at the old NPC price for a total investment of 9 B. Taking in account the new price of 0.508 B 0.838 B, we can value them at 10.16 B 16.8 B. This shows a 1.16 B 7.76 B increase in the NPC value of the items. I was expecting more profit, but that’s what you get when you speculate on patch day.

I have a few options on how to turn a profit with the BPOs:

  1. Sell them in Jita. I believe that due to the market saturation with pre-Inferno 1.2 prints, it will be a while before we start to see the new NPC cost in Jita of 0.508 B 0.838 B + a good margin. I could slowly sell the stock off as prices rise.
  2. Improve value by researching them and then sell.
  3. Produce BPCs for invention/manufacturing. As of this writing, there are not a lot of BPCs available on the open market.

I plan on doing all three to help spread the risk and start to get a return on this speculation adventure.


Inferno 1.2 Mining Barge Speculation

After reviewing the changes to Mining Barges and Exhumers on the test server that Lukas Box detailed, it was time to make a market move before the patch hit.

Speculation had driven up the price of barges to the new expected price after the 1.2 patch, but the BPO on Tranquility still had the original requirements.

We purchased 3x Procurer and 1x Retriever BPOs, found empty build slots a few jumps out from Jita, and began to build. Even selling directly to buy order gave us a good return on the simple Tech 1 construction. We moved 288x Procurer and 45x Retriever ships since the announcement of the barge changes and still have some stock left over made with the pre-Inferno 1.2 BPOs.