Testing Tech 2 Invention and Production

Expanding Operations

In addition to trading, I’ve started up a small invention and Tech 2 production line. My initial approach is to start small and see how well items perform. For now I am going to be working with drones, bombers, and some popular modules. I’ve invented a few ships, but am holding off on producing them.

 

Invention Statistics 

I’m saving the invention job history to my database and wrote a small display to show overall and individual item invention success rates. I’ll add this summary to my monthly updates as I’m sure inventors will find it interesting.

Anshar Invention

My first Jump Freighter invention job was successful despite the ~39.8% calculated success rate given my 4-4-4 skills.

Attempting the job cost 36.3 M of items that are destroyed regardless of the job output:

1x Collision Measurements – 7.6 M
64x Mechanical Engineering Datacore  – 7.231 M
64x Gallente Starship Engineering Datacore – 21.438 M
Obelisk BPC – Copied from my BPO

Since I am not actively producing Freighters due to their low markup and currently dropping mineral prices, I put the Obelisk BPO back into an open copy slot. It takes around 43 days for one copy in an empire slot so you can see why Jump Freighters are slow to produce.

Further details of Jump Freighter production can be found here.


Inferno 1.2 Procurer BPO Speculation

Background

Along with the rebalancing the roles of the mining barges, their mineral requirements were also adjusted. The build requirements for the Tech 1 barges about doubled and therefore the BPO NPC price was adjusted to reflect the new value.

Here is my research on buying Procurer BPOs at pre-Inferno 1.2 prices to sell after the patch.

[Aug 9 update] It looks like CCP changed the NPC price in the Inferno 1.2.1 patch.

ORE Space

Since these BPOs are only seeded in the Outer Ring in two ORE stations, I was able to get a good view on how many were bought by using the market window.

Out of normal BPO purchases in ORE space amounted to 1,264 units starting in late July.

Patch Changes

CCP changed the values before going live. They had a different number published on the Test server and knowingly seeded a different value on the live server. *shakes fist*

Other Barges

I looked considered the increase in BPO price, the new role, market velocity, and added in a little bit of my own gut feeling. This showed that the Procurer BPO was the item with the most potential for profit.

ISK Injection

Given that these were purchased for 450 M and are now worth 0.508 B 0.838 B that means 73.3 B 491 B was created from nothing, or about 0.3% 2% of the normal 24 T ISK faucet amount stated in the 2012 Fanfest presentation. This amount doesn’t seem too noteworthy.

Speculating on Profits

In 76 days about 124 pre-Inferno 1.2 Procurer BPOs moved in Jita slightly above their NPC price of 450 M. If 1,264 out of normal units and around 561 move in Jita in the same time period, that means it will take about 1,118 days (3.06 years) for this stock to clear assuming that demand remains the same.

Twenty BPOs

I bought 20 Procurer BPOs at the old NPC price for a total investment of 9 B. Taking in account the new price of 0.508 B 0.838 B, we can value them at 10.16 B 16.8 B. This shows a 1.16 B 7.76 B increase in the NPC value of the items. I was expecting more profit, but that’s what you get when you speculate on patch day.

I have a few options on how to turn a profit with the BPOs:

  1. Sell them in Jita. I believe that due to the market saturation with pre-Inferno 1.2 prints, it will be a while before we start to see the new NPC cost in Jita of 0.508 B 0.838 B + a good margin. I could slowly sell the stock off as prices rise.
  2. Improve value by researching them and then sell.
  3. Produce BPCs for invention/manufacturing. As of this writing, there are not a lot of BPCs available on the open market.

I plan on doing all three to help spread the risk and start to get a return on this speculation adventure.


Inferno 1.2 Mining Barge Speculation

After reviewing the changes to Mining Barges and Exhumers on the test server that Lukas Box detailed, it was time to make a market move before the patch hit.

Speculation had driven up the price of barges to the new expected price after the 1.2 patch, but the BPO on Tranquility still had the original requirements.

We purchased 3x Procurer and 1x Retriever BPOs, found empty build slots a few jumps out from Jita, and began to build. Even selling directly to buy order gave us a good return on the simple Tech 1 construction. We moved 288x Procurer and 45x Retriever ships since the announcement of the barge changes and still have some stock left over made with the pre-Inferno 1.2 BPOs.


Industry Dashboards

I’ve spent a lot of time designing API driven KPI style dashboards for my industrial operations and given the industry changes coming as detailed in the Summer 2012 CSM7 minutes, I want to share my designs to (hopefully) inspire people for upcoming Winter expansion (I wonder if CCP’ers read this blog).

My mission statement with these was to use a clean, elegant format to give a high level display into my industry operations while using Eve icons and market prices. I should be able to tell the materials and price/profit for items at a glance without referring to other menus, applications, or looking up historical prices.

Industry Jobs

The below shot is active industry jobs. I want to know what is being used, who is using it, current and future ME/PE/Copy numbers, and a pretty display for the job progress.

Another dashboard that I created was capital jobs only. Since these jobs were so long, I wanted to be able to see them progress on a calendar. This has allowed me to keep idle blueprints busy and schedule large-scale builds since capital jobs require large amounts of minerals.

Though the current Eve client does display industry jobs, I find it to be inelegant.

The information displayed is all text, almost like I was reading a database table. Also, I am constantly switching between filter options as the window does not remember my past settings.

PI

When I experimented with supplementing my POS network with PI items, I wanted to be able to display my PI network. I needed to know who owned the item, what is was producing, the output quantity, and how much ISK/day that operation was making.

Additionally, I did some work with the database table for PI items (wonderful self-referencing table) to show me what items up the PI T0 to T3 tree I can currently make given what I am extracting. The page ends up being quite long as it displays all tiers so I cropped this shot after T2. The red marks next to the T1 items mean that I don’t have the T1 items in stock so I can’t make the resultant T2 item.

This is a great example of my ‘high level’ approach. I can now easily answer the question of “can I make Robotics?”. No, I need to be making this at T1 and this at T2. I don’t have to spend time looking at blueprints and their requirements — no additional pages or reference material.

Tech 2 Production

Tech 2 manufacturing can get quite complicated. I was spending a lot of time checking what I had in stock, the build requirements, and final costs. This page gives me the ability to simply move a blueprint from the left column (stock) to the right (build queue) and it queries the database to display everything that I need to make that item.

Multiple blueprints can be added to the queue and materials are aggregated together. This allowed me to place all my blueprints in a queue and create a shopping list of things I need to create the run.

Capital Production

The same story continues for capital ships. I can select my BPO/BPC, the ME level, the character producing it, and the production station. When the location is picked the bottom panes pull from the assets and tell me what I have in stock and what I need in order to complete the job.

Industry Advancement

I want to see a reduction in the amount of clicks and an increase in the amount of user feedback and intelligence given to the user. The displays should not just be a simple static display. They should be more dynamic — pull from your inventory when you select a production system and tell me what I need, display a build quote that doesn’t require me to have all the items or know their build requirements, and use the new Inferno universal market price for items.


July Financial Report

Overview

June and July were periods of rapid growth, both in terms of buying power and activity spread. I’m now able to have my fingers in more markets and more item types, helping to spread the risk.

Graphs!

Out performing the liner projection the past three months.

My purchase sprees have grown in volume over the past few months. They keep topping out at larger amounts.  18.5, 21.1, 25.2, and now 25.5 B purchased in a single day. I love seeing the holding account balance go up, but liquid ISK is idle ISK. Throw is back into the market unless you are accruing a balance for a project.

Major Points

1. New milestone reached as I moved 103.7 B ISK this month.

Subscribing to the Bulk Trade mailing list has fueled buying in large quantities. Why buy two Scimitars off the market when you can buy 20 and get a discount?

2. Speculation on Cobalt

I logged into Jita about 35 minutes after the Devblog was posted citing changes to Alchemy. At this time the majority of Cobalt was off the market, so I was only able to get 26k units @ 1,580 (41.7 M) and then I foolishly bought 15k units @ 7,000 (110.7 M).

As of this writing, Cobalt is sitting at 2,800 in Jita so I highly doubt that I was turn a profit on these speculative trades. I didn’t run the numbers after the announcement so I’ll accept the loss on this.

Despite the loss, it was fun to refresh the markets and watch the speculation drive prices. I hope for more changes to the moon market this fall.

3. Mobile Application

This has proven to be a powerful way to remain connected to the market. I’m currently able to monitor sales and purchases. This lets me keep mental notes of what needs to be restocked or adjusted. In the future we hope to expand it with more Android style touch options.

Some ideas that we have been throwing around is that of a cart. If you are about to sell out of an item, it will shade the row and holding down on the row will bring up an action menu. You can look up history, item trading performance, or add the item to a restock cart.

4. Industrial Partner

Raath, the author of Staticmapper and DRK Industry Tracker, and I are forming an industry and trading partnership. I’m taking my idle stack of blueprints and putting them to use.

We’re polishing off our invention and Tech3 production skills so we can start to mass produce ships and modules. *sigh* do you know that it is going to take 50+ days to be able to produce a Tengu hull and Subsystems?

Idle blueprints

Invention skills

5. Implants

The adjustments to Faction Warfare rewards killed profits on implants for me for over a month. I waited for the price to adjust and am back to trading these in high volumes again. In the past month implants are back in my highest performing group and I’ve moved 2,880 implants in the past 30 days.

6. Wallet Manager

For those of you that have been asking about my Wallet Manager program I have good news. A group of developers is using inspiration from our team and is coding up a public version for everyone. I chat with them daily on irc.coldfront.net and will have a post about this once we have some public-facing content.

The Future

I’m going to get my new partner, Raath, up to speed on the trade operation. He is bringing a large number of production alts so I’m looking forward to putting all our idle blueprints to use.