Inferno 1.2 Procurer BPO Speculation

Background

Along with the rebalancing the roles of the mining barges, their mineral requirements were also adjusted. The build requirements for the Tech 1 barges about doubled and therefore the BPO NPC price was adjusted to reflect the new value.

Here is my research on buying Procurer BPOs at pre-Inferno 1.2 prices to sell after the patch.

[Aug 9 update] It looks like CCP changed the NPC price in the Inferno 1.2.1 patch.

ORE Space

Since these BPOs are only seeded in the Outer Ring in two ORE stations, I was able to get a good view on how many were bought by using the market window.

Out of normal BPO purchases in ORE space amounted to 1,264 units starting in late July.

Patch Changes

CCP changed the values before going live. They had a different number published on the Test server and knowingly seeded a different value on the live server. *shakes fist*

Other Barges

I looked considered the increase in BPO price, the new role, market velocity, and added in a little bit of my own gut feeling. This showed that the Procurer BPO was the item with the most potential for profit.

ISK Injection

Given that these were purchased for 450 M and are now worth 0.508 B 0.838 B that means 73.3 B 491 B was created from nothing, or about 0.3% 2% of the normal 24 T ISK faucet amount stated in the 2012 Fanfest presentation. This amount doesn’t seem too noteworthy.

Speculating on Profits

In 76 days about 124 pre-Inferno 1.2 Procurer BPOs moved in Jita slightly above their NPC price of 450 M. If 1,264 out of normal units and around 561 move in Jita in the same time period, that means it will take about 1,118 days (3.06 years) for this stock to clear assuming that demand remains the same.

Twenty BPOs

I bought 20 Procurer BPOs at the old NPC price for a total investment of 9 B. Taking in account the new price of 0.508 B 0.838 B, we can value them at 10.16 B 16.8 B. This shows a 1.16 B 7.76 B increase in the NPC value of the items. I was expecting more profit, but that’s what you get when you speculate on patch day.

I have a few options on how to turn a profit with the BPOs:

  1. Sell them in Jita. I believe that due to the market saturation with pre-Inferno 1.2 prints, it will be a while before we start to see the new NPC cost in Jita of 0.508 B 0.838 B + a good margin. I could slowly sell the stock off as prices rise.
  2. Improve value by researching them and then sell.
  3. Produce BPCs for invention/manufacturing. As of this writing, there are not a lot of BPCs available on the open market.

I plan on doing all three to help spread the risk and start to get a return on this speculation adventure.


Thrashers in Tama

I don’t have a lot of small gang lowsec PVP experience and in order to broaden my experience level, I like to enlist other people to show me the ropes. Sunday night I went on a 2 person Thrasher roam with JonnyPew of the Explorer’s Log Youtube series.

We ended up deciding on Thrashers since they are a versatile and throwaway PVP ship.

I really want a “Copy Ship Fit” option that will take the existing ship’s fit and assemble a duplicate in the same hangar. I only had to fit up 10 Thrashers and I was already getting annoyed. I found that if I put all the modules, ammo, and rigs in to a container and dragged out of that, it helped the mass fit process. I can’t imagine what the RVB people go through to fit up waves of disposable Rifters.

We started in Jita and made our way through Black Rise to Tama under JonnyPew’s guidance. If you don’t know, Tama is a well known PVP lowsec spot so we wanted to end the night there.

On our way to Tama from Jita, we played standoff with a frigate gang and tried to bait a few Faction Warfare people running sites. We ended up not engaging anyone and instead ganked a cyno alt that was waiting out a beacon. Too many times have I been on the receiving end of this action so it was nice to be the one shooting slugs into a helpless ship.

Frigate Standoff

When we got into Tama, we found a solo Thrasher and attempted to bait it. It turns out that my AutoCannon fit was no match for the Artillery off-grid boosted Thrasher.

Our bait went successfully as I warped off to a clearly discernible planet at 30 after locating the solo Thrasher. He landed at 0 on the planet, 30k away, and locked me up. To my amazement he was getting hits on me from 20k away and as I voiced my amazement, JonnyPew informed me that he was most likely Artillery fit. My 1,100 optimal was no match and I went down in under 30 seconds. At least I got a ‘gf’ in local.

gf

Sunday night US (1:00 Monday UTC) seems to be a good block of free time for me. I might try to make this Sunday night suicide roam a regular occurrence. If you are interested in FC’ing or tagging along, contact Blake Armitage in game. Skype conference seems to be the easiest way to communicate for me until I setup an official voice server.


PLEX Trade

A recent forum post on the official forms included some rabble rabble about how people should not move PLEXes out of stations. Yes, you shouldn’t have to move them around because anyone can have an alt in a trade hub to easily inject them into your account. However, people are lazy. You can make a small profit off of this because it is bothersome to some to login on an alt, check prices, or shop around.

Here are some trading numbers for my ventures with PLEX. Almost all of the 44 traded ones were moved to other stations.


Jita Promenade

The Facts

According to a CCP responce on the Eve forums, we now know that Establishment will not be included in the Winter expansion.

Sadly, the Establishments feature will not be coming in the winter expansion. We hear you guys loud and clear and realize that there is still strong support for a multiplayer, avatar based experience in EVE (we also hear those that don’t want it). However, we think you’ll agree that it has to be a compelling experience and there was a feeling amongst our people that the direction we were taking with the Establishments feature was… well, not that fun. Additionally, we wanted to ensure that our rendering technology was finely tuned to a point that would ensure all of your characters continued to look great while performing well.

It’s humbling to see the support in this thread for a multiplayer Incarna experience and we are still committed to providing it, as and when it’s ready. We want to take the time to do it right and ensure you guys get something that is both fun and involving. There are no promises about when this will happen, just rest assured that while you are enjoying your space based updates this winter, there will continue to be movement on this.

CCP Solomon

I’m completely fine with that as I agree with CCP Solomon’s statement. The current Incarna engine lacks the complexity and efficiency to properly render an area with multiple characters. Try running three Captain’s Quarters at once. Even on my semi-modern GTX260, it is unplayable.

Internal Effort

I don’t understand why CCP chooses to reinvent the wheel.  The Incarna engine and the impending delivery of the new font are examples of code that could be licensed and used from other sources. I would have picked a proven engine such as the id Tech x or Unreal for my own needs, but hey, perhaps it was more cost effective to build it in-house (I won’t begin the World of Darkness discussion).

Given that we are forging ahead with the current engine, improvements will be needed.

The Vision

The design for the common areas should be modeled after iconic arenas that we have seen in modern Science Fiction shows; the Babylon 5 Zocalo and the Deep Space 9 Promenade are leading examples of the services, density, chaos, and intrigue that a public space should bring to the game experience.

Scope

There are going to have to be some smart designers implementing this vision. How are they going to design a space where the population of Jita can interact in a common public area? I can’t fathom right now.

Is there going to be a hallway with 1,200 doors — one for every person docked? What if there are two floors and 100 people are moving between them all at once? Engaging social and technical problems. I can’t wait to see some concept art and blogs about this idea.

Waiting Game

I am fully willing to wait 1-2 years for a finished public space to hit the server if we can work through such laundry lists as the ones proposed for the Winter expansion.

For further commentary see the Jester’s Trek post on Establishments.


Nullsec Industrialization

In Eve we talk a lot about vision. With Dominion, we were going to be brought into a new  era of Nullsec gameplay. Small alliance were going to gain a foothold in space, industrial powers were going to rise, and major conflicts were going to arise over these resources.

Here we are almost two years later and not much has changed in Nullsec. There are major powerblocks controlling the majority of space and conflicts are over a few precious moon types.

I don’t think the vision of Dominion came to be fully actualized. Some major steps were taken, such as removing the POS bowling that had to occur to gain sovereignty and the addition of upgrades with the Infrastructure Hub, but overall the gameplay hasn’t moved forward as far as the vision promised.

People have been talking about the “Independence from Jita” that Nullsec needs and I haven’t seen a concrete plan to reduce the dependance of goods from Highsec.

Here’s a graphical overview of how I see the current flow of Industry:

Industrialists are supposed to be producing all of the goods you PVP types want locally with no reliance on anything from empire. This statement could not be farther from the truth.

Let’s use me as a case study. I’m a industrialist that owns many ship, module, and capital blueprints. I have the ability to produce anything from Cap Rechargers, a Heavy Interdictor, or even a Carrier. All of my production occurs in Highsec/Lowsec. I have three characters that work night and day to produce goods that get shipped off to Nullsec.

Why should I move my operation into Nullsec?

Right now there is a low amount of risk for getting my Highsec/Lowsec goods into Nullsec due to proper scouting and intel combined with a high reward because everything in Nullsec is marked up. Why move?!

Yes there is the topic of nerfing Jump Bridges, Cynosural Generator Array, and Jump Freighters but that will do nothing but drive industry out of Nullsec. Making it more difficult to move items around is not the answer. The main problem is the availability of materials and the lack of industrial infrastructure that Nullsec currently provides.

Moon Source Dependance

In order for me to make a Tech 2 Drone, I need a few moon materials that come from many regions. There is no way that I could get all of the materials from one Nullsec region. What’s the simplest answer? Eve people always go for the simplest answer — get the items from Jita of course! Why would I spent hours getting wild trade routes setup in Nullsec when I can take a freighter to Jita and buy everything that I need en mass?

There will be a huge amount of player uproar if the current distribution of moons is altered. Instead there should be a new method for obtaining moon materials other than POS moon harvesting. Perhaps we can see scannable comets emerge? Perhaps a Tech 2 moon harvesting Noctis hull?

Outposts

I can understand moving research (ME/PE/Copy/Invention) slots to a POS structure, but having manufacturing slots so few and hard to come by in Nullsec impedes industrialists from starting operations.

New players that want to get into manufacturing should be able to spend a few days polishing off skills and have access to slots in Outposts. This reduces the barrier of entry and keeps POS permissions and corp politics out of the arena.

Why would I fight with other people in a Outpost for use of the 10 available slots when in empire I can have access to 50+ in one system? When I do a Carrier build, I get all three characters on the job and I have 30 capital parts building at once. Adding a 3x or more time multiplier on my overall job doesn’t encourage me to move my operations to Nullsec.

Players should have access to cheaper, more robust upgrades for Outposts and be able to have multiple Outposts in systems. If you truly want to make a home capital system in the sky, then we should be able to have the ability to construct facilities that rival Empire systems. This is how Dominion could have created some really valuable territory that people would like to own. Imagine how encouraging it would be to solicit to an Industrial corp to join your Alliance if you controlled a system with six outposts dedicated to manufacturing. Imagine how attractive it would be for a foreign power to take that away from you!

Lowend Ores

The amount of Lowend minerals (Tritanium, Pyerite, Mexallon) is very unbalanced. Making Capital ships requires a huge amount of lowends and the small sized in the belts is not enough to meet the demand. The current method for building a large amount of ships or Capitals is to mine the Highends, compress and ship the off to Jita, buy high compression ratio items/minerals, bring back to your production area and manufacture.

Industry Index

Currently it is too difficult to keep the Industry Index at 4 or 5 compared to the Military Index. Make it easier to maintain and spawn better sites at high levels.

Time-based Disruptions

Increasing the amount of HP on a structure rather than going with the time-based model of taking structures will only encouraging more blobbing. Any new method for taking sov or disabling station services should be timer based.

Nerf the Logistics!

Nullsec logistics is already hard enough if you are far away from Empire. Jump bridges and Cynosural Generators perform well. If any change to Logistics is to be made, increase the consumption of Isotopes or Liquid Oxygen.