Nullsec Alliance Growth and Decline

Posted: 2011-09-15 | Author: | Filed under: eveonline, history | Tags: , , , , , , , | 14 Comments

Individual Influence

One of Eve’s tenets is that anything created can also destroyed. With the passage of enough time, anything will eventually crumble as the universe is slowly heading towards a state of ever increasing entropy.

Players in Eve can be an agent of this entropy. Given enough time you can gain trust within your corporation, perhaps even eventually becoming an identifiable leader figure. If you choose to become involved at a higher level, you could propel yourself into alliance politics. Over time you could leverage your alliance clout to move into a leadership role and thus gain valuable privileges at the alliance level. Access to information, privileges to disband, and access to assets and money could all be yours.

Perhaps you will use that type power to hone the military might of your alliance into a campaign of territory conquest, or perhaps your goal is to engage in a take-the-money-and-run scam.

We’ve seen both scenarios play out and as shown in the Causality video, major events can be enacted by just one person. Large, influential alliance have formed out of nothing — TEST, while major contenders have declined and reformed again and again — BoB to KenZoku to IT to Raiden.


All Good Things…

Things ebb; Delve Dysprosium and Northern Technetium fortresses have fallen and changed hands. When I started playing Eve in 2008 people were using plate sniper Megathrons to wage war in nullsec and BoB was king; nothing could topple them. If you follow Eve politics, take a second to reflect on what has changed.

Visualizing the change of power can be done through the membership growth and decline rates of major alliances.

In order to graph alliance changes, I needed access to a lot of historical data regarding member counts. The alliance API only returns the current statistics so I reached out to a high profile member of the Eve community for assistance.

A special thanks to Wollari at Dotlan for providing me with the historical data for analysis. This post would not be possible without his data, which he so generously reproduced a few times after corrections to my source query were needed.


The Data

  1. Ranges from 2007-06-26 to 2011-09-15.
  2. Contains alliances that were in the Dotlan top 100 list on 2011-09-15.
  3. Added BoB, KenZoku, and IT Alliances to the query since they are historically significant.
  4. Anomaly on 2009-10-28 where the majority of member counts were inaccurate. The data points for this day has been removed.
  5. 87,543 rows of membership information for 114 alliances.


tl;dr Charts

Grown and decline of the Northern Coalition next to the rapid growth of the Drone Russian Federation over the past year.


Combined numbers for the NC and Deklein Coalitions.


On 20010-02-03 GoonSwarm (OHGOD) forgot to pay soverignty bills and lost all of their claimed nullsec space. They have since reformed under Goonswarm Federation (CONDI). Test is still smaller than the current incarnation of the Goons.

The above stacked graph shows the Big 10 (12) alliances over time. It looks as if there were only a few major powers back in 2007. Note that this shows how the current big 10 have changed and does not show who was the big 10 over time.

BoB transitioning into KenZoku seems to be an almost one to one member switchover while the formation of IT Alliance brought in a lot of new member corporations.

The fall of IT Alliance seems to have fractured the group. Corporations that were in IT Alliances are now in Black Star, Cartel, Nulli Tertius, Executive Outcomes, Northern Coalition., AAA, Razor, Cascade Imminent, and the Initiative. Only 33.2% of the members moved into Raiden.

Sev3rance is an interesting entity as they have been moving around a lot. Historically they have been the guardians to one of the entrance routes (KBP7-G) to Providence. Having lost their constellation systems in 2010-03 to Ushra’Khan, they found a home in the NC in Pure Blind and Cloud Ring only to move back to Providence in 2011-07.

Messy stacked graph of all 114 alliances in my data set. It does look like there is definite stagnation in nullsec in 2011.

If you would like to see additional graphs or a separate post on how I transformed the data set, please let me know. I only created a few graphs that I thought would be interesting for the vast majority of the Eve audience. Additionally, my nullsec political knowledge may be lacking and I am open to corrections. Again thanks to Wollari for letting me work with his data.

meme: statistics (hehehe)

Posted: 2010-06-04 | Author: | Filed under: eveonline, history, ships | Tags: , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments

So, apparently there’s a bit of a meme going around where everyone waves their battleclinics around about how good they are and efficient and all that good stuff. I’d like to issue a challenge to do WORSE than me. No isk reward, you just get to show everyone how horrible you are:

Keep in mind that the two kills I’ve made are a myrm and shuttle, both of who were corpmates at the time that I accidentally either attacked with drones while assigning RR or was shooting at for giggles.

So, standing at a proud 0% efficiency (I like to keep it above -1%), here’s some of the noticeable kills. In chronological order.
2008.07.13 02:31:00

Victim: haav0c
Corp: Center for Advanced Studies
Alliance: Unknown
Faction: Unknown
Destroyed: Exequror
System: Indregulle
Security: 0.2
Damage Taken: 10311

Involved parties:

Name: Serpentis Patroller / Serpentis Corporation (laid the final blow)
Damage Done: 10311

Dropped items:

Expanded Cargohold II, Qty: 3
Vivid Hemorphite, Qty: 97 (Cargo)
EP-S Gaussian I Excavation Pulse, Qty: 3
Civilian Shield Booster I, Qty: 2
Medium Standard Container (Cargo)
Vivid Hemorphite, Qty: 130 (In Container)
Small Standard Container (Cargo)
Vivid Hemorphite, Qty: 40 (In Container)

My first loss eva, over two years ago. Did you know that rats sometimes fit warp scramblers? I didn’t.

haav -> guys, I’m scrambled in lowsec
corp -> we’d help, but you’ll be dead by the time we get there
haav -> no, it’s not a pirate.
haav -> it’s a rat.
haav -> he’s scrambled me
corp -> lolwut?

2008.07.17 00:57:00

Victim: haav0c
Corp: Center for Advanced Studies
Alliance: Unknown
Faction: Unknown
Destroyed: Exequror
System: Mesybier
Security: 0.5
Damage Taken: 3603

Involved parties:

Name: Serpentis Patroller / Serpentis Corporation (laid the final blow)
Damage Done: 3603

Fell asleep.

2008.07.18 15:48:00

Victim: haav0c
Corp: Center for Advanced Studies
Alliance: Unknown
Faction: Unknown
Destroyed: Iteron Mark II
System: Pelille
Security: 0.2
Damage Taken: 1602

Involved parties:

Name: Osmodious (laid the final blow)
Security: 0.5
Corp: System-Lords
Alliance: NONE
Faction: NONE
Ship: Typhoon
Weapon: Paradise Cruise Missile
Damage Done: 1602

found the cheapest iteron mark 2 in the region, bought it, undocked, and got reminded where I was by a few cruise missiles >.>

2009.09.06 23:09:00

Victim: haav0c
Corp: Infinity Miners Union
Alliance: Eych Four Eks Zero Ahr
Faction: Unknown
Destroyed: Hulk
System: WYF8-8
Security: 0.0
Damage Taken: 6810

Involved parties:

Name: Bane Torpedo / Archangels (laid the final blow)
Damage Done: 6810

Ahyup. Went to nullsec, turned the tank on, tanked a spawn, went to check on the grill, more rats warp in, I come back and see a pod >.>

2009.09.10 06:33:00

Victim: haav0c
Corp: Infinity Miners Union
Alliance: Eych Four Eks Zero Ahr
Faction: Unknown
Destroyed: Hulk
System: Scheenins
Security: 0.5
Damage Taken: 6565

Involved parties:

Name: Serpentis Guard / Serpentis Corporation (laid the final blow)
Damage Done: 6565

Fell asleep while mining <.<

2009.09.24 02:20:00

Victim: haav0c
Corp: Infinity Miners Union
Alliance: Eych Four Eks Zero Ahr
Faction: Unknown
Destroyed: Hulk
System: J114443
Security: 0.0
Damage Taken: 5115

Involved parties:

Name: Dezzidor (laid the final blow)
Security: 5.0
Corp: Hunters Clan
Alliance: Noob Fleet
Faction: NONE
Ship: Wolf
Weapon: Domination 200mm Autocannon
Damage Done: 5115

Damn wolf BMed the grav and worked his way past my tank alarmingly quickly <..>

2009.11.26 05:27:00

Victim: haav0c
Corp: Infinity Miners Union
Alliance: Unknown
Faction: Unknown
Destroyed: Buzzard
System: J161301
Security: 0.0
Damage Taken: 1395

Involved parties:

Name: Astraeaa (laid the final blow)
Security: -0.9
Corp: Optimus Crime.
Alliance: Triumvirate.
Faction: NONE
Ship: Helios
Weapon: Hobgoblin II
Damage Done: 1395

Name: Major Shake
Security: -0.6
Corp: The Scope
Alliance: NONE
Faction: NONE
Ship: Helios
Weapon: Tracking Disruptor II
Damage Done: 0

Nerf helios..es? heliosi? helios? One of those.

2010.01.21 04:39:00

Victim: haav0c
Corp: Infinity Miners Union
Alliance: Unknown
Faction: Unknown
Destroyed: Occator
System: Crielere
Security: 0.4
Damage Taken: 8999

Involved parties:

Name: Monarch (laid the final blow)
Security: -9.1
Corp: the united
Alliance: Negative Ten.
Faction: NONE
Ship: Maelstrom
Weapon: 800mm Repeating Artillery II
Damage Done: 4904

Name: wicker man
Security: -10.0
Corp: the united
Alliance: Negative Ten.
Faction: NONE
Ship: Absolution
Weapon: Absolution
Damage Done: 3063

Name: Crashm8
Security: -10.0
Corp: the united
Alliance: Negative Ten.
Faction: NONE
Ship: Onyx
Weapon: Caldari Navy Havoc Heavy Missile
Damage Done: 1032

The last time I tank a hauler instead of cargo or agility.

2010.04.01 22:38:00

Victim: haav0c
Corp: Dark Shadow Industries
Alliance: Rogue Elements.
Faction: Unknown
Destroyed: Buzzard
System: Jita
Security: 0.9
Damage Taken: 199

Involved parties:

Name: Officer Sugarboots (laid the final blow)
Security: -10.0
Corp: Jita Traffic Control
Alliance: NONE
Faction: NONE
Ship: Raven
Weapon: Large ‘Notos’ Explosive Charge I
Damage Done: 199

I hate highsec.

2010.05.01 14:52:00

Victim: herleena muran
Corp: Dark Shadow Industries
Alliance: Rogue Elements.
Faction: Unknown
Destroyed: Orca
System: X5-0EM
Security: 0.0
Damage Taken: 42933

Involved parties:

Name: Duncan MacGregor
Security: 0.6
Corp: Iridium Inc.
Alliance: Shadow of xXDEATHXx
Faction: NONE
Ship: Zealot
Weapon: Zealot
Damage Done: 9730

Name: karagahaga
Security: -0.5
Corp: The Shadow Squadron
Alliance: Legion of xXDEATHXx
Faction: NONE
Ship: Cynabal
Weapon: Warrior II
Damage Done: 8048

Name: Yakudze
Security: 4.9
Corp: Red’s Swashbucklers Corp
Alliance: Legion of xXDEATHXx
Faction: NONE
Ship: Hurricane
Weapon: Hurricane
Damage Done: 7971

Name: 70x93n
Security: 2.8
Corp: The xDEATHx Squadron
Alliance: Legion of xXDEATHXx
Faction: NONE
Ship: Sabre
Weapon: Sabre
Damage Done: 7505

Name: Atrosha
Security: 3.8
Corp: Red’s Swashbucklers Corp
Alliance: Legion of xXDEATHXx
Faction: NONE
Ship: Harpy
Weapon: Harpy
Damage Done: 3940

Name: Kanitel
Security: 2.5
Corp: The xDEATHx Squadron
Alliance: Legion of xXDEATHXx
Faction: NONE
Ship: Flycatcher
Weapon: Thorn Rocket
Damage Done: 3041

Name: argon praim
Security: 4.4
Corp: Red’s Swashbucklers Corp
Alliance: Legion of xXDEATHXx
Faction: NONE
Ship: Scimitar
Weapon: Hobgoblin II
Damage Done: 1535

Name: YemodYar (laid the final blow)
Security: -0.7
Corp: Red’s Swashbucklers Corp
Alliance: Legion of xXDEATHXx
Faction: NONE
Ship: Falcon
Weapon: 250mm Prototype I Gauss Gun
Damage Done: 769

Name: Bromista
Security: -1.0
Corp: The Shadow Squadron
Alliance: Legion of xXDEATHXx
Faction: NONE
Ship: Stiletto
Weapon: Stiletto
Damage Done: 347

Name: Henge DeMonar
Security: 4.4
Corp: The Shadow Squadron
Alliance: Legion of xXDEATHXx
Faction: NONE
Ship: Basilisk
Weapon: Basilisk
Damage Done: 47

Name: Nemizzida
Security: -1.4
Corp: Iridium Inc.
Alliance: Shadow of xXDEATHXx
Faction: NONE
Ship: Loki
Weapon: Republic Fleet Warp Disruptor
Damage Done: 0

Note to self: stop playing Eve when half asleep.

Total losses:
Capsule 14
Retriever 1
Vexor 8
Iteron mark II 1
Iteron mark III 1
Iteron mark IV 3
Iteron mark V 8
Ibis 1
probe 1
Dominix 4
Slasher 1
Exequeror 4
newbship 2
Covetor 2
Hulk 4
Bantam 1
Vigil 1
shuttles 5
Buzzard 4
Badger 1
Occator 1
Catalyst 2

So, 0 isk in kills, about 1.3 bil in losses. Top that!

And as a bonus argument: Does this make me a carebear?

Thinking in Powers of 10

Posted: 2009-09-02 | Author: | Filed under: history | Tags: , , | 1 Comment

When I first started Eve, I thought in terms of thousands; skill books that cost 32,000 or 100,000 were high priced and the thought of spending multiple millions on the advanced learning skills was just not justifiable.

After a few months of getting my learning skills maxed out, I found Evemon and saw how beneficial the advanced learning skills were to my character. I mined for hours in my Navitas frigate and hauled with an Iteron III to get enough ISK to purchase the skills. After those skills were purchased, I started to think of items in Eve in terms of millions. Tech I items that cost 100,000 ISK or 200,000 ISK cost next to nothing and I had some 50 million in my wallet.

  • 06.2008 – 07.2009 NPC, Center of Advanced Studies
  • 07.2008 Joined a corporation
  • 11.2008 Corporation joined a Alliance
  • 02.2009 Created a second account

Joining a corporation set me on a mission to pilot the mightly Hulk, which at the time cost around 80-85 million ISK. I slaved, earning money by trading basic Tech I items like Warp Core Stabilizers and Heavy Neutron Blasters. The Hulk was fun to mine in and made easy work of Veldspar asteroids. After the release of Apocrypha, a corpmate of mine and I moved into a C2, then a C3 and now we are calling a C5’s home; my Hulk is eating Arkonor and Bistot asteroids for breakfast.

15 months after starting Eve, I am setting a goal to pilot a Carrier for the Alliance. The skill books, ship, modules, and insurance all add up to around 2-2.5 B with a 80 day plan to be able to pilot the Carrier with proper module/jumpdrive skills. I have perused the killboards and see the multi-billion ISK damage of a Carrier kill.

Am I ready to think in terms of Billions? 1,000… 1,000,000… 1,000,000,000?

Newer Entries →