Inferno 1.2 Procurer BPO Speculation
Posted: 2012-08-08 Filed under: industry, market | Tags: covetor, hulk, inferno, jita, mackinaw, ore, outer ring, procurer, retriever, skiff 13 CommentsBackground
Along with the rebalancing the roles of the mining barges, their mineral requirements were also adjusted. The build requirements for the Tech 1 barges about doubled and therefore the BPO NPC price was adjusted to reflect the new value.
Here is my research on buying Procurer BPOs at pre-Inferno 1.2 prices to sell after the patch.
[Aug 9 update] It looks like CCP changed the NPC price in the Inferno 1.2.1 patch.
ORE Space
Since these BPOs are only seeded in the Outer Ring in two ORE stations, I was able to get a good view on how many were bought by using the market window.
Out of normal BPO purchases in ORE space amounted to 1,264 units starting in late July.
Patch Changes
CCP changed the values before going live. They had a different number published on the Test server and knowingly seeded a different value on the live server. *shakes fist*
Other Barges
I looked considered the increase in BPO price, the new role, market velocity, and added in a little bit of my own gut feeling. This showed that the Procurer BPO was the item with the most potential for profit.
ISK Injection
Given that these were purchased for 450 M and are now worth 0.508 B 0.838 B that means 73.3 B 491 B was created from nothing, or about 0.3% 2% of the normal 24 T ISK faucet amount stated in the 2012 Fanfest presentation. This amount doesn’t seem too noteworthy.
Speculating on Profits
In 76 days about 124 pre-Inferno 1.2 Procurer BPOs moved in Jita slightly above their NPC price of 450 M. If 1,264 out of normal units and around 561 move in Jita in the same time period, that means it will take about 1,118 days (3.06 years) for this stock to clear assuming that demand remains the same.
Twenty BPOs
I bought 20 Procurer BPOs at the old NPC price for a total investment of 9 B. Taking in account the new price of 0.508 B 0.838 B, we can value them at 10.16 B 16.8 B. This shows a 1.16 B 7.76 B increase in the NPC value of the items. I was expecting more profit, but that’s what you get when you speculate on patch day.
I have a few options on how to turn a profit with the BPOs:
- Sell them in Jita. I believe that due to the market saturation with pre-Inferno 1.2 prints, it will be a while before we start to see the new NPC cost in Jita of
0.508 B0.838 B + a good margin. I could slowly sell the stock off as prices rise. - Improve value by researching them and then sell.
- Produce BPCs for invention/manufacturing. As of this writing, there are not a lot of BPCs available on the open market.
I plan on doing all three to help spread the risk and start to get a return on this speculation adventure.
Inferno 1.2 Mining Barge Speculation
Posted: 2012-08-08 Filed under: eveonline, industry, market, ships | Tags: covetor, hulk, inferno, mackinaw, procurer, retriever, skiff 3 CommentsAfter reviewing the changes to Mining Barges and Exhumers on the test server that Lukas Box detailed, it was time to make a market move before the patch hit.
Speculation had driven up the price of barges to the new expected price after the 1.2 patch, but the BPO on Tranquility still had the original requirements.
We purchased 3x Procurer and 1x Retriever BPOs, found empty build slots a few jumps out from Jita, and began to build. Even selling directly to buy order gave us a good return on the simple Tech 1 construction. We moved 288x Procurer and 45x Retriever ships since the announcement of the barge changes and still have some stock left over made with the pre-Inferno 1.2 BPOs.
July Financial Report
Posted: 2012-07-29 Filed under: industry, market, screenshot | Tags: bpc, bpo, cobalt, invention, tech 2, tech 3, tengu 6 CommentsOverview
June and July were periods of rapid growth, both in terms of buying power and activity spread. I’m now able to have my fingers in more markets and more item types, helping to spread the risk.
Graphs!
Out performing the liner projection the past three months.
My purchase sprees have grown in volume over the past few months. They keep topping out at larger amounts. 18.5, 21.1, 25.2, and now 25.5 B purchased in a single day. I love seeing the holding account balance go up, but liquid ISK is idle ISK. Throw is back into the market unless you are accruing a balance for a project.
Major Points
1. New milestone reached as I moved 103.7 B ISK this month.
Subscribing to the Bulk Trade mailing list has fueled buying in large quantities. Why buy two Scimitars off the market when you can buy 20 and get a discount?
2. Speculation on Cobalt
I logged into Jita about 35 minutes after the Devblog was posted citing changes to Alchemy. At this time the majority of Cobalt was off the market, so I was only able to get 26k units @ 1,580 (41.7 M) and then I foolishly bought 15k units @ 7,000 (110.7 M).
As of this writing, Cobalt is sitting at 2,800 in Jita so I highly doubt that I was turn a profit on these speculative trades. I didn’t run the numbers after the announcement so I’ll accept the loss on this.
Despite the loss, it was fun to refresh the markets and watch the speculation drive prices. I hope for more changes to the moon market this fall.
This has proven to be a powerful way to remain connected to the market. I’m currently able to monitor sales and purchases. This lets me keep mental notes of what needs to be restocked or adjusted. In the future we hope to expand it with more Android style touch options.
Some ideas that we have been throwing around is that of a cart. If you are about to sell out of an item, it will shade the row and holding down on the row will bring up an action menu. You can look up history, item trading performance, or add the item to a restock cart.
4. Industrial Partner
Raath, the author of Staticmapper and DRK Industry Tracker, and I are forming an industry and trading partnership. I’m taking my idle stack of blueprints and putting them to use.
We’re polishing off our invention and Tech3 production skills so we can start to mass produce ships and modules. *sigh* do you know that it is going to take 50+ days to be able to produce a Tengu hull and Subsystems?
 Idle blueprints |
 Invention skills |
5. Implants
The adjustments to Faction Warfare rewards killed profits on implants for me for over a month. I waited for the price to adjust and am back to trading these in high volumes again. In the past month implants are back in my highest performing group and I’ve moved 2,880 implants in the past 30 days.
6. Wallet Manager
For those of you that have been asking about my Wallet Manager program I have good news. A group of developers is using inspiration from our team and is coding up a public version for everyone. I chat with them daily on irc.coldfront.net and will have a post about this once we have some public-facing content.
The Future
I’m going to get my new partner, Raath, up to speed on the trade operation. He is bringing a large number of production alts so I’m looking forward to putting all our idle blueprints to use.
Technetium Income for Large Alliances
Posted: 2012-07-20 Filed under: market, nullsec | Tags: akita t, budget, dysprosium, goonswarm, neodymium, promethium, technetium, test 2 CommentsIn light of the recent Devblog that outlines changes to moon minerals, I wanted to quantify the scale of income streams that are going to be changing with the Inferno 1.2 patch slated for August release.
Large alliances [in the North] thrive on Technetium income. It pays for ship reimbursements, sovereignty, incentives, and POS fuel. Imagine if you had a 19.3 B/month bill to pay and you could put up a structure to collect valuable goods, a weekly Jump Freighter run to collect the stock from each tower, and a few weekly shipments to market to supply your alliance with billions of ISK per month of income.
If you do some searching, you can find budget sheets for large alliances such as TEST and GoonSwarm. These leaked documents might be a little stale, but can offer us some insight into the scale of income that Technetium contributes to its holders.
TEST Balance, Best Balance
On paper they have 253 B in and 86 B out for a net balance of 167 B per month. Not bad, but consider how much of that income stream comes from moon ownership and then how much of that moon income comes from Technetium.
Feb 2012 Income Sources for TEST
An enormous portion of TEST’s income comes from Technetium. As a younger alliance, I imagine that their holding account doesn’t have nearly as much ISK idle as our older GoonSwarm friend; TEST’s summary page shows 162 days of operating capital.
Scrooge McDuck Money Vault of GoonSwarm
Haven been around for a long time, they have massive amounts of ISK reserved. I’ve been in on a few conversations that have revolved around the GoonSwarm market group and they are working with vast amounts of liquid wealth.
Their budget sheet shows a income of 762 B in and 547 out for a net balance of 215 B per month. Not surprisingly, a large amount of their income comes from Technetium moons.
GoonSwarm Monthly Moon Income
Accidently All the Moons
On paper TEST has 16 Technetium and GoonSwarm have noted 76. So how much of the total nubmer of moons do these two and the rest of the Northern powers control?
There doesn’t seem to be an exact number of moons, only speculation with a high concentration ‘in the North’. Market Forum warrior Akita T has noted that there is somewhere between 360 and 450 moons with a conservative guess around 400. Taking the conservative 400 number means that only 23% is under TEST and GoonSwarm control so there still is a large amount of income not going into these alliance wallets.
Percentage of Items from Invention vs Tech 2 BPOs
Posted: 2012-07-17 Filed under: industry, market | Tags: absolution, bpo, eagle, eris, heretic, hulk, invention, tech 2 4 CommentsA while ago CCP Diagoras posted some statistics on Twitter for the percentage of items that come from Invention vs Tech 2 BPOs to help quell the tinfoil hat theories that Tech 2 BPOs control the entire market. I recorded and sorted the tweets, but never released them.
What does this mean for you as an inventor looking at the market? Well, you will most likely want to stay away from the red items as the Tech 2 BPO owners have a stronger control on the price and can undercut you below your profitability threshold.
If you are interested in further Tech 2 BPO research that I have conducted, take a look at the T2 BPO Returns post.
k162space 
