Nullsec Alliance Data Transformation

Messy numbers to some, or a wealth of information for others. Here is a quick rundown of how I processed the data to form the Nullsec Alliance Growth and Decline post.

1. Get raw data from Wollari at Dotlan.

allianceID,date,members
151380924,26.06.2007,622
166439722,26.06.2007,1130
284278305,26.06.2007,252
288377808,26.06.2007,1151
386292982,26.06.2007,412
477769446,26.06.2007,252
628991027,26.06.2007,1062
632866070,26.06.2007,2267
673381830,26.06.2007,416

2. Load Eve Alliance information via API into a table.

3. Import Dotlan data into MySQL table and join allianceID on both tables to generate more human friendly data set that includes Alliance Names and Tickets.

SELECT alliances.allianceID, alliances.name, alliances.shortName, date, members
FROM allianceHistory, alliances
WHERE alliances.allianceID = allianceHistory.allianceID

4. Export data into an Excel readable file.

I spent some time debating about working with this data using a MySQL table and a charting engine such as Highcharts, but settled on using an Excel PivotTable. The time involved with me tinkering with the JavaScript (not my most proficient programming language) would really hinder progress.

Once in Excel, I had to reformat the date from dd.mm.yyyy to yyyy-mm-dd to allow proper chart generation. First, I used the text to column feature with a comma ‘,’ set as the deliminator. Secondly, in a new column, I used a formula to combine the date in my desired format.

=DATEVALUE(F1&"-"&E1&"-"&D1)


Hide the D, E, and F columns and we’re got a good set of data to analyze.

5. Select all 87,543 rows and generate a PivotTable using the Alliance Name as the legend, date as the Axis Fields, and a summation of the Member Count as the Value.

Now the fun part is thinking of WHAT is significant.

Some of the first things that I wanted to show was the rise and fall of the NC, growth of the DRF, and some charting for the larger Alliances like Goons and Test. These charts can be seen in the original post linked at the top.

RipardTeg of Jester’s Trek came to me with idea for a new report that I think will prove rather interesting. I’m going to be working with him to answer the question of ‘whether small sov-holding null-sec alliances are surviving in the last two years, or being folded into the mega-alliances over time’.

This type of Eve Community collaboration with passionate, exemplary individuals is what really keeps me playing. Stay tuned.


Nullsec Alliance Growth and Decline

Individual Influence

One of Eve’s tenets is that anything created can also destroyed. With the passage of enough time, anything will eventually crumble as the universe is slowly heading towards a state of ever increasing entropy.

Players in Eve can be an agent of this entropy. Given enough time you can gain trust within your corporation, perhaps even eventually becoming an identifiable leader figure. If you choose to become involved at a higher level, you could propel yourself into alliance politics. Over time you could leverage your alliance clout to move into a leadership role and thus gain valuable privileges at the alliance level. Access to information, privileges to disband, and access to assets and money could all be yours.

Perhaps you will use that type power to hone the military might of your alliance into a campaign of territory conquest, or perhaps your goal is to engage in a take-the-money-and-run scam.

We’ve seen both scenarios play out and as shown in the Causality video, major events can be enacted by just one person. Large, influential alliance have formed out of nothing — TEST, while major contenders have declined and reformed again and again — BoB to KenZoku to IT to Raiden.


All Good Things

Things ebb; Delve Dysprosium and Northern Technetium fortresses have fallen and changed hands. When I started playing Eve in 2008 people were using plate sniper Megathrons to wage war in nullsec and BoB was king; nothing could topple them. If you follow Eve politics, take a second to reflect on what has changed.

Visualizing the change of power can be done through the membership growth and decline rates of major alliances.

In order to graph alliance changes, I needed access to a lot of historical data regarding member counts. The alliance API only returns the current statistics so I reached out to a high profile member of the Eve community for assistance.

A special thanks to Wollari at Dotlan for providing me with the historical data for analysis. This post would not be possible without his data, which he so generously reproduced a few times after corrections to my source query were needed.


The Data

  1. Ranges from 2007-06-26 to 2011-09-15.
  2. Contains alliances that were in the Dotlan top 100 list on 2011-09-15.
  3. Added BoB, KenZoku, and IT Alliances to the query since they are historically significant.
  4. Anomaly on 2009-10-28 where the majority of member counts were inaccurate. The data points for this day has been removed.
  5. 87,543 rows of membership information for 114 alliances.


tl;dr Charts

Grown and decline of the Northern Coalition next to the rapid growth of the Drone Russian Federation over the past year.


Combined numbers for the NC and Deklein Coalitions.


On 20010-02-03 GoonSwarm (OHGOD) forgot to pay soverignty bills and lost all of their claimed nullsec space. They have since reformed under Goonswarm Federation (CONDI). Test is still smaller than the current incarnation of the Goons.

The above stacked graph shows the Big 10 (12) alliances over time. It looks as if there were only a few major powers back in 2007. Note that this shows how the current big 10 have changed and does not show who was the big 10 over time.

BoB transitioning into KenZoku seems to be an almost one to one member switchover while the formation of IT Alliance brought in a lot of new member corporations.

The fall of IT Alliance seems to have fractured the group. Corporations that were in IT Alliances are now in Black Star, Cartel, Nulli Tertius, Executive Outcomes, Northern Coalition., AAA, Razor, Cascade Imminent, and the Initiative. Only 33.2% of the members moved into Raiden.

Sev3rance is an interesting entity as they have been moving around a lot. Historically they have been the guardians to one of the entrance routes (KBP7-G) to Providence. Having lost their constellation systems in 2010-03 to Ushra’Khan, they found a home in the NC in Pure Blind and Cloud Ring only to move back to Providence in 2011-07.


Messy stacked graph of all 114 alliances in my data set. It does look like there is definite stagnation in nullsec in 2011.

If you would like to see additional graphs or a separate post on how I transformed the data set, please let me know. I only created a few graphs that I thought would be interesting for the vast majority of the Eve audience. Additionally, my nullsec political knowledge may be lacking and I am open to corrections. Again thanks to Wollari for letting me work with his data.


Nullsec Industrialization

In Eve we talk a lot about vision. With Dominion, we were going to be brought into a new  era of Nullsec gameplay. Small alliance were going to gain a foothold in space, industrial powers were going to rise, and major conflicts were going to arise over these resources.

Here we are almost two years later and not much has changed in Nullsec. There are major powerblocks controlling the majority of space and conflicts are over a few precious moon types.

I don’t think the vision of Dominion came to be fully actualized. Some major steps were taken, such as removing the POS bowling that had to occur to gain sovereignty and the addition of upgrades with the Infrastructure Hub, but overall the gameplay hasn’t moved forward as far as the vision promised.

People have been talking about the “Independence from Jita” that Nullsec needs and I haven’t seen a concrete plan to reduce the dependance of goods from Highsec.

Here’s a graphical overview of how I see the current flow of Industry:

Industrialists are supposed to be producing all of the goods you PVP types want locally with no reliance on anything from empire. This statement could not be farther from the truth.

Let’s use me as a case study. I’m a industrialist that owns many ship, module, and capital blueprints. I have the ability to produce anything from Cap Rechargers, a Heavy Interdictor, or even a Carrier. All of my production occurs in Highsec/Lowsec. I have three characters that work night and day to produce goods that get shipped off to Nullsec.

Why should I move my operation into Nullsec?

Right now there is a low amount of risk for getting my Highsec/Lowsec goods into Nullsec due to proper scouting and intel combined with a high reward because everything in Nullsec is marked up. Why move?!

Yes there is the topic of nerfing Jump Bridges, Cynosural Generator Array, and Jump Freighters but that will do nothing but drive industry out of Nullsec. Making it more difficult to move items around is not the answer. The main problem is the availability of materials and the lack of industrial infrastructure that Nullsec currently provides.

Moon Source Dependance

In order for me to make a Tech 2 Drone, I need a few moon materials that come from many regions. There is no way that I could get all of the materials from one Nullsec region. What’s the simplest answer? Eve people always go for the simplest answer — get the items from Jita of course! Why would I spent hours getting wild trade routes setup in Nullsec when I can take a freighter to Jita and buy everything that I need en mass?

There will be a huge amount of player uproar if the current distribution of moons is altered. Instead there should be a new method for obtaining moon materials other than POS moon harvesting. Perhaps we can see scannable comets emerge? Perhaps a Tech 2 moon harvesting Noctis hull?

Outposts

I can understand moving research (ME/PE/Copy/Invention) slots to a POS structure, but having manufacturing slots so few and hard to come by in Nullsec impedes industrialists from starting operations.

New players that want to get into manufacturing should be able to spend a few days polishing off skills and have access to slots in Outposts. This reduces the barrier of entry and keeps POS permissions and corp politics out of the arena.

Why would I fight with other people in a Outpost for use of the 10 available slots when in empire I can have access to 50+ in one system? When I do a Carrier build, I get all three characters on the job and I have 30 capital parts building at once. Adding a 3x or more time multiplier on my overall job doesn’t encourage me to move my operations to Nullsec.

Players should have access to cheaper, more robust upgrades for Outposts and be able to have multiple Outposts in systems. If you truly want to make a home capital system in the sky, then we should be able to have the ability to construct facilities that rival Empire systems. This is how Dominion could have created some really valuable territory that people would like to own. Imagine how encouraging it would be to solicit to an Industrial corp to join your Alliance if you controlled a system with six outposts dedicated to manufacturing. Imagine how attractive it would be for a foreign power to take that away from you!

Lowend Ores

The amount of Lowend minerals (Tritanium, Pyerite, Mexallon) is very unbalanced. Making Capital ships requires a huge amount of lowends and the small sized in the belts is not enough to meet the demand. The current method for building a large amount of ships or Capitals is to mine the Highends, compress and ship the off to Jita, buy high compression ratio items/minerals, bring back to your production area and manufacture.

Industry Index

Currently it is too difficult to keep the Industry Index at 4 or 5 compared to the Military Index. Make it easier to maintain and spawn better sites at high levels.

Time-based Disruptions

Increasing the amount of HP on a structure rather than going with the time-based model of taking structures will only encouraging more blobbing. Any new method for taking sov or disabling station services should be timer based.

Nerf the Logistics!

Nullsec logistics is already hard enough if you are far away from Empire. Jump bridges and Cynosural Generators perform well. If any change to Logistics is to be made, increase the consumption of Isotopes or Liquid Oxygen.


Ratting, you’re killing me Smalls

With Incursion 1.4 on April 6th, CCP changed the way anomalies work.

Below is a report showing the ratting statics of a 165 member nullsec corporation from February 14 to April 23, 2011. Our income from ratting is nosediving.

As a player that started in 2008, I’ve seen a lot of changes come to Eve and honestly this one is the first change that I really found unnerving. I feel as if I gave my dog a new chewtoy and while he was enjoying it, I took it away.

I believe that this feeling can best be described in a modern form of art called a ragecomic.


Trading 201: Nullsec Station Trading Logistics

Intro

This article discusses a trading strategy that involves more capital than pure Highsec trading, but if you have the means it can result in higher gains. If you haven’t read them, review Trading 101 and 102; these are a quick refresher course on my trading strategies.

Logistical Overview

The goal is to move goods from Jita to a Highsec station that is within short jump range of your Nullsec trading location and to then jump them into your Nullsec trading system. Since Jump Freighters cannot jump into Highsec, you need to return to a Lowsec system next to a Highsec system.

Items Needed

1, Jump Freighter.
1, Freighter.
1, Freighter alt in Jita in a NPC corporation to avoid war declarations.
1, Nullsec trader with cyno skills. Minimum of Accounting IV, Broker Relations IV.
1, Lowsec cyno alt. Keep this character under 900,000 skill points so you never have to update the clone.
Racial Isotopes specific to your Jump Freighter
Trade Goods

Assumptions

  1. You understand the basics of capital ship jumping (Eve Wiki review).
  2. You are flying what you can afford to loose (including cargo!) (!!).
  3. Destination nullsec system is not cyno jammed.
  4. Lowsec system, that connects to Highsec, has a station.

Tips

  1. You will never want to jump into a lowsec system while cynoing from a safe-spot. Jump Freighters take some 10-20 seconds to align and get into warp and since you cyno beacon appears on the overview, anyone in lowsec can warp to you and scramble you.
  2. Do your market research.
  3. Never haul more than 2B worth of cargo out of Jita. You will be a target for ganking.
  4. Get a Jita insta-undock bookmark. This will help you avoid the freighter bumps outside of Jita 4-4 while attempting to warp to a gate.
  5. If the Jump Freighter character’s corporation gets wardec’d, use your lowsec cyno alt to scout into highsec before entering highsec.
  6. Hardwiring – Eifyr and Co. ‘Rogue’ AY-1 implant for 3% bonus to Ship Agility
  7. Hardwiring – Eifyr and Co. ‘Rogue’ CY-1 implant for 3% bonus to Ship Velocity

Stocking Goods

What in the heck do I sell? Think of what people do in nullsec: PVP, ratting, mining. Do you market research. Get your trading alt into nullsec and start going through the market.

Buy a few items of differing market groups and see how fast each one sells.

Cyno Jumping Tips

Review this article by S.W. on the proper creation of a cyno under the “Where the heck is that cyno – at the station” heading; you want to light the cyno next to the nullsec station within 5,000 m of the structure while still being within docking range.

The below example shows that you will want to light your cyno greater than 5,000 m away from the station physically (use the tactical overlay), but still within the station docking range.

After you jump to your cyno, do not issue any navigational directions to the Jump Freighter. The session timer post jump will make your Jump Freighter untargetable and therefore invulnerable for 20 seconds. Once the timer is up, dock up. This will refresh your ship’s capacitor back to 100%.

What? I need an concrete example!

9UY4-H II – Chribbas Cottage UNITY station in Providence is a station with no docking fees and is open to the public.

Highsec Staging -> 9UY4-H
9UY4-H -> Lowsec next to Highsec, Irshah
Irshah,  lowsec next to Highsec -> Highsec

I’m lazy, give me the Dotlan jump map.
http://evemaps.dotlan.net/jump/Anshar,444/Esescama:9UY4-H:Irshah


Once again into the blobtastic yonder

My string of BS losses to random disconnections, blackscreens and blackouts has shown no signs of abetting as has my corpmates’ request for me to join them in null, which according to them is full of happiness and liquid isk and shooting people who never ever come to our home systems, honest.

So, once again my corp is somewhere in nullsec and I’m following them in pursuit of fun and profit. For those of you new, let’s recap my null experiences:

#1
Alliance was used as renters before renters existed to inhabit systems in insmother CVA was trying to take from atlas. We were chased out by AAA.

#2
Alliance rented space from atlas in insmother from Atlas to serve as a buffer between them and the drone regions, which apparently didn’t like atlas in insmother.

#3 Corp is situated in Cloud Ring on NC side. Nuff said.

So, I leave my trusty orca in jita, pop in a viator and fly my three chars down to null.

Things got off to a flying start when I docked the viator, went five jumps to get a geddon for ratting, came 4j back and got bubbled and podded 67km from the station.

So, as of speaking I have four alts in null, drake pilot, drake/domi pilot, scanner/amarr everything, and Orca/domi pilot. Since I feel bad about not participating in CTAs I’ll be using the drakes because I’m sick of losing effing BSs.

Speaking of CTAs, my quest to get one actual pvp kill gets another good try with this boomtastic battle.

I’m the guy in the drake. Since I’m not an experienced nullsec spinmaster or news caster I’ll just say that having a gang of 450 individually “gf” a 15 man group we just steamrolled was one of the funniest moments I’ve had in Eve thus far.

I’m sure I’ll be told to redact that image because A. It’s a horrible drake fit, B. evil people might learn…..

That shooting SBUs in a subcap fleet is boring?

Eh.

Third time’s the charm?


I wish I could make this shit up

I’m sure everyone knows the tried and true axion of “never trust anyone in Eve”. I’d like to add another axion.

“If you’ve just woken up and have a really bad feeling about something going on, cancel warp, you fucking idiot”

So, get up this morning, look at the stack of linear algebra, login to my Orca pilot to update her skill que, someone types in alliance private chat
“Anyone want these two imperial navy multi-frequency crystals, free?”

I say sure, get a fleet invite, get fleetwarped, which triggers the first alarm bell in my head. Unfortunately, I’m still half asleep, so since my Orca’s aligned to planet VI, and the dude says he’s at planet VI moon something, I let it slide. Orca warps, and I can’t help but notice the moon he says he’s on slide worryingly past as there’s a neutral XXdeathXX spike in local.

So, I land on planet VI, and immediately start realigning to the pos, get scrammed by a loki, bubble goes up, corpmates try to assist but I tell them to hold, they’ll probably lose the two thannys to a hotdrop, set self-destruct and watch as Lebius, my Orca for eight months of W-space, which has survived through all the crazy-ass shit I’ve put it through, including warping past a russian WH pvp fleet, warping past russian dreads and such in a C6, closing a WH w/ a fleet massing on the other side, warping out moments before a bubble fleet warped in on the grav, hauling through a five-C5 link to a lowsec WH w/ a bil of compressed ore, and a huge pile of other things I cant remember right now, explodes. The pod, with +3 implants(o noes!) explodes.

Most people would be angry, but I’ve got this really weird trait. Ever since kindergarten, I’m completely unaffected by losses unless I’m convinced that the other site cheated or went outside predetermined rules, at which point I usually collapse into a complete emotional breakdown and/or start punching things. This was completely within the “rules”. They (probably) had a spy in our channel, they probably fleeted me at that exact moment and had a covops floating outside the bubble to fleetwarp me, counting on that I’d be too lazy to check the actual fleet invite.

So, if you’ll not the sabre on the killmail, I wake up in station, thankfully with all my skillpoints intact. Prasing raath for having me insure my orca, I check my wallet.

170 mil.

Apparently, the Orca wasn’t insured.

I check my mail.
The Orca’s insurance expired just over five fucking hours ago.

SO.

Got about a bil in wallet, got an outstanding loan of a bil to pay back, a plex due in 12 hours and an orca, rigged to replace.

Gotta love Eve.