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Trading 205: Regional Arbitrage

Overview

One of my favorite trading techniques is to buy items in one area and sell them in another area at an increased price. Source your goods in Jita or Amarr and sell them in another area that has a unique trait. What is a unique trait? Well, some examples are systems that are hard to reach, high traffic areas that border lowsec/nullsec, alliance home systems, known centers for PVP activity, or major PVE areas.

Gathering Data

The following will demonstrate how to construct a spreadsheet to gauge market potential.

  • Jita = Price in Jita
  • Target = Price at target station
  • Difference = Jita – Traget
  • Margin = ((Target/Jita)-1)*100
  • Move =
    • Switch to the Price History Tab in the Eve client
    • Switch to 3 Months
    • Select the Table view
    • Select all the data with Ctrl + A
    • Paste into your spreadsheet program
    • Create a cell that has an Average of the Quantity column
    • Use this number for the Move(d) value
  • Potential(d) = Difference * Move(d)
  • Move(m) = Move(d) * 30
  • Potential(m) = Potential(d) * 30

2014-06-26_market_summary

Filtering Items

As you develop your spreadsheet, you can start to notice outliers. Certain items will have nice margins, but will never move. Some items may move, but have a poor return. It is your goal to find the ones that have good movement with a nice return.

Performance

I wanted to test out my market research so I setup shop in a station and started to import items. In my test region, I’m successfully getting 59% of the total traffic for the region given the items I am targeting bringing in on average 103.8 M profit/day, or around 3.1 B/month.

2014-06-26_profit_summary

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Capital Runs 1-229 (Final)

Overview

Is is more profitable to build a Carrier from BPCs or BPOs? That question was the initial spark that started my interest in capital production in 2011. Using a BPC copy pack from the market was hardly profitable so I made a plan to own and operate a set of capital BPOs.

Over time as profits started to materialize, more BPOs were purchased to round out production queues. Carrier success then started to bleed into Dreadnought production. With the upcoming industry changes in the Crius expansion, the fate of my capital operation is unknown so I have paused the project.

Here are the final numbers for almost 3 years (2.93 to be exact) of capital production. Note that Dreadnought production was a recent addition, only starting in mid-2013. Special tribute goes to my industry partner, Raath, as he was the lead on this massive project.

tl;dr Build Naglfars and Archons.

Sales

2014-06-05_hulls_by_type

2014-06-05_hulls_by_region

Performance

Naglfar sales in Delve outperformed all other types and regions yet showed the most standard deviation.

2014-06-05_hulls_by_profit_group_region

The Naglfar outperformed every other hull type when it came to profitability per time period. This is due to the balance update it received in the Odyssey update where it became a viable doctrine ship. The Archon, due to the popularity of the Slowcat doctrine, was also solid performer.

2014-06-05_capital_project_summary

 


Capital Production Paused

After waiting for a few research jobs to finish up, I tore down the Highsec research POS and consolidated all the materials used for capital production. I am not sure about the viability of Lowsec capital production with the upcoming changes in the Crius expansion slated for July 22nd.

Presently I have more questions than answers.

  1. How is the mandated refine differential between High-Low-Null going to affect build prices?
  2. Will Low-Null mining become a profession that can compete with ore import costs from Highsec?
  3. How will the general population buy capitals if the majority of them start to be delivered in sovereign Nullsec space?
  4. Are the logistics of moving compressed ore from Highsec into Low-Null going to be worth the ::effort::?
  5. Will capital prices eventually trend upward due to the lack of construction in Lowsec and cause Lowsec operations to become competitive with Nullsec?
  6. Will Nullsec entities provide protection for large-scale mining operations in their space?
  7. Will a competitive NPC Nullsec-Lowsec market spring up around major construction hubs?

I haven’t had the time or inclination to research these topics in depth; I hope to become motivated when the Crius changes start to hit the test server.

2014-06-08_idle_capital_bpos

 

2014.06.04.20.38.36-1


Kronos Change List

Release date: Tuesday, June 3rd, 2014.

Patch Notes

[eveonline.com]

Dev Blogs

These changes have been pushed to the Crius release on July 22nd.

  1. Building Better Worlds
  2. Industry UI
  3. Researching, the Future
  4. The Price of Change
  5. Team Up: Industry Work Teams
  6. Fortune Favors the Bold

Balance Changes

  1. Drone Changes [devblog]
  2. POS gunning skill to only require Anchoring 4 instead of Anchoring 5 [reddit] [dev post]
  3. FW Plex Cloaking Change [reddit] [dev post]
  4. Phoenix and Citadel Missiles Change [reddit] [dev post] [fanfest slide]
  5. Freighter and Jump Freighter Rigging [reddit]
  6. POS ME Bonus [dev post]
  7. POS Changes [dev post]
  8. Factional Warfare Complex Improvements [reddit] [dev post] [dev post update]
  9. More lowsec K-K wormholes [dev post]
  10. Hull Rigs [dev post]
  11. Exploration loot spew removal [dev post]
  12. Faction drone modules [reddit] [imgur]
  13. Dreadnought Signature Radius increase [dev post]
  14. Freighter and Jump Freighter [reddit] [dev post]
  15. Blockade Runner [reddit] [dev post]
  16. Medium Micro Jump Drives [reddit] [dev post]
  17. Loot Scattering removed [reddit] [dev post]
  18. Pirate Implants [reddit] [dev post]
  19. Hyperspatial Accelerators Modules [reddit] [pastebin]
  20. Active mid slot scanning modules [reddit]
  21. Supercarrier changes [reddit] [news post]

UI/UX

  1. Right-click Menu Update [reddit] [youtube]
  2. Warp in/out animations [reddit] [gif]
  3. Faction Station Skins
  4. Team Pirate Unicorns Tooltip changes [dev post]
  5. Lens Flare Adjustments [dev post]
  6. UI Little Things [dev post]
  7. Audio Customization [dev post]

Ships

  1. Dominix redesign [reddit] [imgur]
  2. Moa redesign [reddit]
  3. Typhoon redesign [reddit]
  4. Condor / Crow / Raptor redesign [reddit]
  5. Mordus Legion [dev post]
    1. Frigate – Garmur
    2. Cruiser – Orthus
    3. Battleship – Barghest [reddit] [imgur]
  6. Prospect [reddit] [dev blog]
  7. 20 Ship Skins [dev post]
  8. Alliance Tournament XII Ships
    1. Chameleon
    2. Whiptail
  9. New skins [imgur]

Internal Code

  1. Dogma, the name for the system that calculates ship bonuses, refactoring to improve performance

CCP Greyscale Comments on Tech 2 BPOs

We got hit with two industry Devblogs today as it looks like CCP is going to try to publish all six industry related blogs before Fanfest. On page 9 for the comments for the Researching, the Future post, CCP Greyscale made a comment on how much Tech 2 BPOs dominate the market.

Right, Mastadon, Claymore, Claw etc are BPO-dominated, so in practice all this means is more throughput and (presumably) cheaper prices.

Huginn and Muninn are in the area of concern, where we might end up warping the market a little.

Broadsword’s not a concern because it was released in Trinity (winter 2007) and to the best of my knowledge we stopped putting new ship BPOs into the lottery in Revelations 1 (winter 2006). If that market’s uncompetitive, it’s because of your fellow inventors, not BPO owners 🙂

CCP Greyscale source

This adds a little more information from what we got out of CCP Diagoras before he left CCP that I covered in my Percentage of Items from Invention vs Tech 2 BPOs post.


Industry Devblogs Leaked

Overview

After a lot of long nights and mountains of data parsing involving a 26GB dataset, I have information about the upcoming Industry related Devblogs to share before the official announcements out of CCP’s headquarters. The Heartbleed security exploit allowed me to gather information about the topics from the CSM-CCP private forum and here’s what I found.
IMG_20140423_103906-1

Data Mining

Piecing together forum content 64K at a time was no easy task; there is a lot of change in the memory while people are using the forums. Now that I am living in GMT-8, I did a lot of the data collection over my evening to early morning hours. I knew that this was the best time to try to gather chunks of memory with the least amount of change due to the majority of the users being asleep.

I ran my exploit code at random intervals during the night from various VPN endpoints to try to keep the attack sources unidentifiable and obfuscated. Each time I was successful at getting a chunk of the server’s memory, I saved the output to a database.

Using some data mining techniques, I was able to make some of the 64K memory blocks overlap and build larger sections. Eventually I was able to get some partial HTML pages that were human readable, filled with the details of the upcoming devblogs.

Industryblog3

So far CCP has released two out of the six total blogs and here is the detail on the upcoming content:

#3 Industry UI

John Lander, also known as CCP Unifex, gave an announcement during Fanfest 2013 that his team was going to deliver a mobile portal into the Eve universe to allow some game functionality on tablets and phones devices. He recently announced that he was leaving CCP and I found that there was a lot of questions about what to do with the code that has been created by his team.

Code equals development time, which equals money. As far as the investors are concerned, the code that was written is still valuable and since it is a line item on the balance sheets, it should be used in some fashion. The board of directors did not want to write off the value because the mobile development group was being shutdown.

CCP Punkturis‎, a respected User Interface Programmer, just returned from maternity leave and had a empty task list; she was put in charge of salvaging the mobile framework into something usable. What is being delivered is a Industry UI that is built entirely around a grid structure. Each of the block represents an input. The goal of the design is that you have to feed in items to equal 2048 in order to start the industry job. If you don’t reach a multiple of 2048, the job doesn’t start.

“This fits perfectly into the risk vs reward idea,” wrote Ripard Teg, Vice Chair of CSM8.

2014.04.23.20.36.59

#4 Research

The intense hatred and heated ramblings that we see on the public forums regarding the Invention system and existence of Tech2 BPOs is also mirrored on the CSM-CCP private forums. The community backlash and scars from the t20 incident in 2007 are still not healed. The Summer theme of reworking industry was seen as a great time to change the design to ease the suffering and apologize for the hurt feelings.

CCP plans to add an additional component to Tech 2 BPOs in order to complicate their production and create a bottleneck that can be controlled. All existing Tech 2 BPOs in the game are going to require various amounts of Fedo as inputs. This additional input allows CCP to control the spawn rates of Fedo asteroids that can only be mined by Modulated Deep Core Miner II’s.

2014-04-24_fedo_tech2_bpo

Fedo asteroids can only be sourced from Palpis system in the Devoid region so this system is going to become as valuable as X-7OMU in Pure Blind, the primary source for Sisters of Eve LP mission runners.

#5 Job Cost Scaling

The idea on the table is to make industry more collaborative and nerf the profitability for solo-manufactures; CCP is forcing us to play with other people. Their idea is that the more people the better so job costs will sale with the size of your corporation with alliances receiving an extra bonus on top of that.

Initial proposed scaling numbers result in a 838.6% profit benefit to being in a 11,120 member alliance like Goonswarm Federation.

2014-04-24_vagabond_profits

#6 Teams

A major complaint of people is that if you want to partner up with a person from another corporation or alliance, you lack the ability to share resources in a secure fashion. A ‘team’ is a new tab in the corporation window where you can link external entities and give them access to your resources such as corporation hangars, and manufacturing slots, and POSes. A new, more tab-intense, nested window structure within the Corporation tab is being delivered to us.

Trebor Daehdoow, the CSM8 Chairman, was found stating that “this tabular, nested design is really the height of user experience. I can’t think of a better way to sort and filter for things.”

2014.04.23.21.11.57

Note: I hope you enjoyed this troll post. None of the actions outlined actually occurred and everything reported is made-up.


425mm Railgun I BPO Firesale

With the upcoming compression changes outlined in the Building Better Worlds devblog, our stock of 425mm Railgun I BPOs became instantly useless for compressing minerals. They were researched to ME250/PE50, but I priced them at their NPC value of 15M as a firesale in order to get them to move. I was able to sell our stock within a week.

So long Railgun BPOs, you will be missed.

2014.04.10.05.10.44