New Item Profitability over Time

Hypothesis: New items become less profitable over time.

Source Data: I picked the Noctis because I have data for 188 sales ranging from Dec/2010 to June/2012. I wanted to look at the Tier3 Battlecruisers, but I lack enough trades on these to be statistically meaningful.

The slope of the trendline suggests that the profitability is every so slightly going down. I assumed that the decline would be much greater than shown by the trendline.

Since a recently added item didn’t show a downward trend, I extend the research sampling. I picked a common item, a common ship, and a high volume item.

1. Here is the graph for 1,534 Damage Control II’s. It shows more downward profitability than the Noctis.

2. The Ishtar is a very popular ship for ratting and mission running. 112 Ishtar trades show a greater profitability decline than the Noctis.

3. The trend of 572 Cybernetic Basic implants shows a slight decline.

Conclusion: I could not prove my hypothesis with data from Noctis sales and I’m showing greater profit decline on more common items. I’ll revisit this when I have more data for the Tier3 Battlecruisers and the modules introduced in Inferno.


Jita Implant Manipulation

Some trader or group of traders have been driving up the cost of implants in Jita. All 5 implant types (Cybernetic, Memory, Neural, Ocular, and Social) for all three tiers (Basic, Standard, and Improved) have been heavily manipulated since the weekend.

If you look at the price history, it seems that a lot of people have noticed and are trying to hold out.  No movement was recorded for April 03 across the board for all 5 implant types AND for all three tiers. Wow, this upward pressure takes some serious capital and diligence.

Across the board, the trend is quite visible. Right now there are only 31 Memory Basic implants on the Jita market at 13.89 M.

I wonder how long this attempt will last as implants are easy to acquire from LP.