New Item Profitability over Time

Hypothesis: New items become less profitable over time.

Source Data: I picked the Noctis because I have data for 188 sales ranging from Dec/2010 to June/2012. I wanted to look at the Tier3 Battlecruisers, but I lack enough trades on these to be statistically meaningful.

The slope of the trendline suggests that the profitability is every so slightly going down. I assumed that the decline would be much greater than shown by the trendline.

Since a recently added item didn’t show a downward trend, I extend the research sampling. I picked a common item, a common ship, and a high volume item.

1. Here is the graph for 1,534 Damage Control II’s. It shows more downward profitability than the Noctis.

2. The Ishtar is a very popular ship for ratting and mission running. 112 Ishtar trades show a greater profitability decline than the Noctis.

3. The trend of 572 Cybernetic Basic implants shows a slight decline.

Conclusion: I could not prove my hypothesis with data from Noctis sales and I’m showing greater profit decline on more common items. I’ll revisit this when I have more data for the Tier3 Battlecruisers and the modules introduced in Inferno.

3 Comments on “New Item Profitability over Time”

  1. Zenver says:

    Seems to make sense in general. That over time more competition would enter the market place and drive the prices downwards. Although, given how all over the place those graphs are, I would hesitate to say that there is some sort of a definate trend without looking at a larger selection of items.

  2. Bede says:

    its tricky but location is kind of important, is this in null or high? and is it a mission hub, as a general snapshot that looks ok of your activites in one place, and might mean you need to shake your items tree for something more profitable.

    for things like the noctis, once you have one you dont really need another unless you loose it some how.

    as a analysis of your currently traded items, proberbly a good thing to do every 3 months or so.

  3. […] New Item Profitability over Time […]

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