Item Price Stability
Posted: May 17, 2013 Filed under: industry, market, ships | Tags: abaddon, archon, chimera, hulk, ishtar, maelstrom, nidhoggur, orca, PLEX, rokh, tengu, thanatos, veldspar 8 Comments »I leave for two weeks and you all accidentally the market. I was not able the participate in the Odyssey speculation, but I am enjoying catching up on it.
The wild swings that we are seeing in the Moon and Ice markets due to Odyssey adjustments made me reflect on the stability of the items that I trade.
I used my historical database to come up with a report to provide quantitative insight to help give values to the items that I instinctively know are high risk. Here is a snapshot of the lower and upper items listed in my Stability Report that covers three years of trading sorted by standard deviation (σ).
Here are some general observations about the items listed:
- Basic minerals, ammo, and modules are the most stable.
- Capital modules weigh in somewhere in the middle.
- Tech2 ships fill the upper band of the report.
- Tech3 hulls and associated Subsystems are randomly spread over the middle band.
- Certain battleships are high on the report because their popularity has changed over time due to shifting fleet doctrines.
- The Procurer BPO was an item that I speculated on heavily during the last patch, which netted very positive results.
- Capital ships are subject to large swings due to mineral price changes.
A tenant of becoming a good trader is minimizing your risk while trying to maximize your rewards. My advice for new traders is to work with more stable items as shown in the shaded green area of my report; they are subject to less swing and therefore will help minimize risk. As your ISK resources grow, you can move into riskier items that will [hopefully] yield larger returns.
Capital Runs 1-66
Posted: April 19, 2013 Filed under: industry, ships | Tags: archon, chimera, moros, naglfar, nidhoggur, revelation, thanatos 2 Comments »Overview
The Capital construction project has been running for 163.5 days and so far has generated 18.06 B profit with a hull moving every 2.48 days on average.
Hull Velocity
April and November are excluded from the average calculation as November was our start-up month and the books for April are still open. The average number of hulls we have been moving has been rather steady, coming in at 13.25/month.
Hull Popularity
As expected the Thanatos and Archon are more popular followed by the Chimera. I wish I could package tears for our brave Nidhoggur pilots, as it is the worst racial Carrier.
We started Dreadnought production in January-February so I’m not surprised that their movement has been low. Given the impending changes to the Naglfar, that BPO has been put into production and will hopefully become a strong source of income #nag2013.
Battle Rorqual
Posted: March 4, 2013 Filed under: ships | Tags: ore, rorqual, thanatos 9 Comments »
My hangar mainly consists of Industrial ships such as Freighters, Jump Freighters, or Orcas. I’ve always been interested in piloting a Rorqual, but not in the classical setting of a ore crunching vehicle.
I invite the PVP community to offer suggestions for a Battle Rorqual as the fits on BattleClinic are rather underwhelming.
So far I spent some ISK and purchased the necessary skills to enable my polished Thanatos pilot sit in a Rorqual. I am going to train up Capital Industrial Ships to IV as the Rorqual receives a modest bonus on drone damage. Since this pilot was trained for an Armor Thanatos, I will also need to get Capital Shield Operation to IV.
Here are the details on the Rorqual bonus with the drone bonus highlighted as it is what enables this hull to excel with drone based combat.
Capital Industrial Ships skill bonuses:
-5% reduction in fuel consumption for industrial cores per level
5% bonus to effectiveness of mining foreman gang links per level when in deployed mode
50% bonus to the range of Capital Shield Transporters per level.
20% bonus to drone damage and hitpoints per level.Role Bonuses:
900% bonus to the range of survey scanners
200% bonus to the range of cargo scanners99% reduction in CPU need for Gang Link modules
99% reduction in CPU need for Clone Vat BayCan use 3 Gang Link modules simultaneously.
Note how the Capital Industrial Ships skill is up from the old NPC price of 450 M. CCP recently changed pricing for NPC skills in a Retribution patch.
First pass at a fit:
February Financial Report
Posted: February 28, 2013 Filed under: eveonline, industry, ships | Tags: archon, carrier, chimera, dreadnought, moros, naglfar, nidhoggur, revelation, thanatos 2 Comments »Overview
In Winter of 2012, I approached my partner Raath to see if expanding our operation into Heavy Industry was a viable means to take excess liquid capital and start to produce return for our efforts. After scouting markets, running numbers, and placing production characters in proper locations the operation formed.
We’ve reached a state of industrial nirvana as our operational inefficiencies have been reduced and logistic kinks have been worked out over the past few months. Given that we’ve nailed down a solid production cycle, we know what we are going to be spending in minerals every few weeks.
Graphs
A large portion of capital went into the start of our Heavy Industry branch as seen by the grand change in expenses between November and December.
Two periods of expansion can be seen in December and February’s relatively small growth numbers as during these months we poured more capital into Carrier and Dreadnought BPOs, reducing final growth numbers. Also in February a large amount of minerals were purchased for another production cycle that extends into March. Since we operate on a two week cycle, materials purchased at the end of the month show up on the books in the next month.
Historical profits clearly show when the operation started to run.
Dreadnought Blueprints
In January and February we acquired three researched Dreadnought blueprints, two with perfect ME research. Our production lines have expanded to include these ship hulls and in March we should start seeing profits from these jobs.
Industrial Trophy
*rabble rabble rabble*
*throws fuel into the fire*
*rabble rabble rabble*
Have a look at the research I’ve conducted about how just poor of an investment these items can be: Tech 2 BPO Returns and Percentage of Items from Invention vs Tech 2 BPOs.
Having the Tech 2 variant of the BPO means I run a serial production operation (1 BPO) at high margin with a lack of ability to change items in reaction to market changes.
The Tech 1 invention process is a parallel operation (1 or more BPOs) involving lower margins that can over saturate a Tech 2 producer. Inventors do need to maintain of a POS for ME/PE/Copy slots, but the ability to change items in response to market shifts is highly beneficial for Inventors.
Here is a quick rundown of the performance of my Tech 2 BPO vs inventing from one copy of the Tech 1 BPO.
If it was such a poor investment, then why get one? For me the lack of clicks in the invention process and the removal of the wretched POS in the production equation is worth the cost. I have stayed away from large-scale invention specifically due to these two reasons.
Future Plans
No major expansion desires are on the plate at the moment. Right now we are in a ‘slow and steady wins the race’ mode.
Wormhole Space in 2009 and 2010
Posted: February 8, 2013 Filed under: eveonline, history, industry, screenshot | Tags: aperture harmonics, arkonor, bistot, c5, c6, crokite, drake, megacyte, rorqual, sleeper, tengu, thanatos 6 Comments »Here are a few pictures that highlight my corporation’s venture into Wormhole space to strike it rich.
2009
The daily routine was scanning for sites, mining ABCs with Orca boosts, and compressing Ore down for transport to Jita.
Our capacity to haul large amounts of Ore out of Wormhole to Jita increased significantly when we got a Rorqual into our C6.
Boosted Hulks mining Arkonor was king at the time. Each full jetcan was worth around 13-16M.
Orca boosted mining operation.
We once caught a Tengu with a tank that we could not break. After toying around with it for a while, we eventually let the pilot got and gave her the location of a return Wormhole as we destroyed her scanning alt.
As we build up our PVE arsenal, we needed Carrier support to run the C5/C6 sites. I paid 715M for a Thanatos during this time and I still am in possession of this specific Carrier.
Purchasing skills for the Carrier. Notice that we used the MOTD to communicate on the current Wormhole status.
1600 plated Typhoon mass collapsing a connecting Wormhole.
2010
As we became more proficient in Unknown space, we started to train up skills for Tengu, Drake, and other PVE specific ships.
Our weekly hauls started to get large and larger as our mining capacity increased.
Thanatos beauty shot after emerging from a connecting Wormhole.
Another Thanatos shot.
Carrier assisted site running.
This is a shot of Megacyte, which was king at the time. Due to the large availability of ABC ore in Wormhole space, mining groups like us were driving the price down.
When you inhabit the highest class of Wormhole space, you are bound to run into some major players. Here is a shot of an Aperture Harmonics’ Dreadnought bring used to mass collapse a connecting Wormhole that was connecting our two systems.
Aperture Harmonics fleet coming into our system to scout for prey.
You spend a lot of time looking at these in Unknown space.
One of the most powerful things in Unknown space is Intel. If you have the knowledge, you can dictate everything. The little Helios was one of the most useful ships for me during my time in Wormhole space.
Defending Tengu shot.
Space potato beauty shot. We had a Remote Repping Dominix doctrine that served us well.
Protecting our home.
Every few weeks the rate of respawn for all the sites would dwindle down to almost nothing. Like nomads we would find a new home and setup shop to strip the system.
Industrial might.
Extreme hatred for the POS/Reaction UI.
Capital ship shot.
