Carrier Runs 1-228

Overview

Carrier building operations have been running for 1,087 days and has generated 53.7 B in profit averaging 234.6 M/hull with a sale every 4.7 days.

There was a slight dip in production due to relocating our Capital building operations and my move across the country around November of 2013. Since then we’ve been steadily optimizing our operations and final March production counts came in at 17 hulls, almost matching our maximum of 19 in May of 2013.

2014-04-07_hulls_sold_by_month

Profit Charts

The profit trends on all hulls show a downward trend.

2014-04-07_all_hulls

Chimera and Archon hulls are still holding strong while Thanatos and Nidhoggur hulls are not worth producing.

2014-04-07_chimera_hulls 2014-04-07_archon_hulls 2014-04-07_thanatos_hulls 2014-04-07_nidhoggur_hulls

Future

We are not the only capital builder noticing shrinking profits as noted also by EVE-Fail. The upcoming mineral compression changes have us rethinking our logistical operation and possibly putting our capital building operations on hold.


Relocating Capital Building Operations

With the stabilization of the Fountain and Delve regions over the past few months, the amount of sales we have seen in our building system have decreased. Raath made a command decision to leave the region in search for greener pastures.

2013.12.18.03.12.30-1

Operation Performance

Our time in G-TT5V spanned 385 days where we built 162 capital hulls to sell on the local market. Our sales totaled 221.4 B ISK with a total profit coming in at 43.3 B.  Performance metrics show a margin of 4.1%, an average of 3.4 B per month in profit, and a velocity of 5.06 hulls moved per week.

Top Performers

Given the balance changes to the Naglfar hull that came in the Odyssey update, we have seen a very strong demand the the hull; it is not a surprise that it has been a top performer. If you want to mass build, pick the Archon or Thanatos.

2013-12-17_average_profit

2013-12-17_sum_profit


Capital Hull Profit Margins Trends

After two months of Eve downtime to move across the country to start a new job, I wanted to report on how Capital sales have been performing as Raath has been leading the construction of capitals hulls in my absence.

Carrier Hulls

Looking at sales from 2012-06 to 2013-11, we are faced with shrinking margins on Carriers. With 139 data points covering over a year of sales, I think it is fairly easy to justify a trend from the data. The highest demand we saw was when TEST was defending Fountain, as the Slowcat doctrine was a training goal for a lot of pilots.

2013-12-05_carrier_hulls

Dreadnought Hulls

We have a much smaller dataset to work with for Dreadnoughts as the BPOs and workflow for incorporating them into the production line was a fairly recent addition. With only six months of sales data, it is hard to draw a strong conclusion but the margins look to be holding stronger than Carriers. I attribute a lot of our strong numbers holding Dreadnoughts up primarily due to the Naglfar rebalance in the Odyssey expansion; their profit margins are holding up around 40% on average due to demand, and plus it is cool vertical hull.

Note: we are not building the Phoenix hull due to general terribleness.

2013-12-05_dreadnought_hulls


Capital Runs 1-109

Overview

Project has been running now for 239.5 days and has generated 33.2 B in profit averaging 304.9 M/hull with a sale every 2.19 days.

2013-07-05_capital_quantity 2013-07-05_capital_hull_type

War is Good for Business

I am positioned to sell to anyone due to my building location as it is not a sovereign station. There was a noticeable uptick in armament when the Fountain campaign was announced in late April of 2013.

2013-07-05_profit


Item Price Stability

I leave for two weeks and you all accidentally the market. I was not able the participate in the Odyssey speculation, but I am enjoying catching up on it.

2013.05.16.19.26.13-12013.05.16.19.25.40-1

The wild swings that we are seeing in the Moon and Ice markets due to Odyssey adjustments made me reflect on the stability of the items that I trade.

I used my historical database to come up with a report to provide quantitative insight to help give values to the items that I instinctively know are high risk. Here is a snapshot of the lower and upper items listed in my Stability Report that covers three years of trading sorted by standard deviation (σ).

2013-05-15_price_detail

Here are some general observations about the items listed:

  • Basic minerals, ammo, and modules are the most stable.
  • Capital modules weigh in somewhere in the middle.
  • Tech2 ships fill the upper band of the report.
  • Tech3 hulls and associated Subsystems are randomly spread over the middle band.
  • Certain battleships are high on the report because their popularity has changed over time due to shifting fleet doctrines.
  • The Procurer BPO was an item that I speculated on heavily during the last patch, which netted very positive results.
  • Capital ships are subject to large swings due to mineral price changes.

A tenant of becoming a good trader is minimizing your risk while trying to maximize your rewards. My advice for new traders is to work with more stable items as shown in the shaded green area of my report; they are subject to less swing and therefore will help minimize risk. As your ISK resources grow, you can move into riskier items that will [hopefully] yield larger returns.

Update

Thanks for all the feedback in the comments. I actually spent some time recently to figure out how to calculate item volatility here http://k162space.com/2013/08/20/hac-price-volatility/. I’m working out how to pull numbers for all my data for a new post soon.


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