After two months of Eve downtime to move across the country to start a new job, I wanted to report on how Capital sales have been performing as Raath has been leading the construction of capitals hulls in my absence.
Looking at sales from 2012-06 to 2013-11, we are faced with shrinking margins on Carriers. With 139 data points covering over a year of sales, I think it is fairly easy to justify a trend from the data. The highest demand we saw was when TEST was defending Fountain, as the Slowcat doctrine was a training goal for a lot of pilots.
We have a much smaller dataset to work with for Dreadnoughts as the BPOs and workflow for incorporating them into the production line was a fairly recent addition. With only six months of sales data, it is hard to draw a strong conclusion but the margins look to be holding stronger than Carriers. I attribute a lot of our strong numbers holding Dreadnoughts up primarily due to the Naglfar rebalance in the Odyssey expansion; their profit margins are holding up around 40% on average due to demand, and plus it is cool vertical hull.
Note: we are not building the Phoenix hull due to general terribleness.
Project has been running now for 239.5 days and has generated 33.2 B in profit averaging 304.9 M/hull with a sale every 2.19 days.
War is Good for Business
I am positioned to sell to anyone due to my building location as it is not a sovereign station. There was a noticeable uptick in armament when the Fountain campaign was announced in late April of 2013.
I leave for two weeks and you all accidentally the market. I was not able the participate in the Odyssey speculation, but I am enjoying catching up on it.
The wild swings that we are seeing in the Moon and Ice markets due to Odyssey adjustments made me reflect on the stability of the items that I trade.
I used my historical database to come up with a report to provide quantitative insight to help give values to the items that I instinctively know are high risk. Here is a snapshot of the lower and upper items listed in my Stability Report that covers three years of trading sorted by standard deviation (σ).
Here are some general observations about the items listed:
- Basic minerals, ammo, and modules are the most stable.
- Capital modules weigh in somewhere in the middle.
- Tech2 ships fill the upper band of the report.
- Tech3 hulls and associated Subsystems are randomly spread over the middle band.
- Certain battleships are high on the report because their popularity has changed over time due to shifting fleet doctrines.
- The Procurer BPO was an item that I speculated on heavily during the last patch, which netted very positive results.
- Capital ships are subject to large swings due to mineral price changes.
A tenant of becoming a good trader is minimizing your risk while trying to maximize your rewards. My advice for new traders is to work with more stable items as shown in the shaded green area of my report; they are subject to less swing and therefore will help minimize risk. As your ISK resources grow, you can move into riskier items that will [hopefully] yield larger returns.
Thanks for all the feedback in the comments. I actually spent some time recently to figure out how to calculate item volatility here http://k162space.com/2013/08/20/hac-price-volatility/. I’m working out how to pull numbers for all my data for a new post soon.
The Capital construction project has been running for 163.5 days and so far has generated 18.06 B profit with a hull moving every 2.48 days on average.
April and November are excluded from the average calculation as November was our start-up month and the books for April are still open. The average number of hulls we have been moving has been rather steady, coming in at 13.25/month.
As expected the Thanatos and Archon are more popular followed by the Chimera. I wish I could package tears for our brave Nidhoggur pilots, as it is the worst racial Carrier.
We started Dreadnought production in January-February so I’m not surprised that their movement has been low. Given the impending changes to the Naglfar, that BPO has been put into production and will hopefully become a strong source of income #nag2013.
My hangar mainly consists of Industrial ships such as Freighters, Jump Freighters, or Orcas. I’ve always been interested in piloting a Rorqual, but not in the classical setting of a ore crunching vehicle.
I invite the PVP community to offer suggestions for a Battle Rorqual as the fits on BattleClinic are rather underwhelming.
So far I spent some ISK and purchased the necessary skills to enable my polished Thanatos pilot sit in a Rorqual. I am going to train up Capital Industrial Ships to IV as the Rorqual receives a modest bonus on drone damage. Since this pilot was trained for an Armor Thanatos, I will also need to get Capital Shield Operation to IV.
Here are the details on the Rorqual bonus with the drone bonus highlighted as it is what enables this hull to excel with drone based combat.
Capital Industrial Ships skill bonuses:
-5% reduction in fuel consumption for industrial cores per level
5% bonus to effectiveness of mining foreman gang links per level when in deployed mode
50% bonus to the range of Capital Shield Transporters per level.
20% bonus to drone damage and hitpoints per level.
900% bonus to the range of survey scanners
200% bonus to the range of cargo scanners
99% reduction in CPU need for Gang Link modules
99% reduction in CPU need for Clone Vat Bay
Can use 3 Gang Link modules simultaneously.
Note how the Capital Industrial Ships skill is up from the old NPC price of 450 M. CCP recently changed pricing for NPC skills in a Retribution patch.
First pass at a fit: