A Tech 3 ship is a great example of an item that has high cross-selling opportunities. A Tech 3 hull by itself it useless; a person must assemble it by combining it with five Subsystem components –defensive, electronic, engineering, offensive, and propulsion. This requirement for flying the ship gives a trader the ability to also stock the necessary Subsystems and increase potential profits.
Tengu Hull Performance
I have found the Tengu hull to have the most volume out of the four racial Tech 3 hulls due to it’s PVP and PVE applications. The Loki hull is a close second, but it out-shined by the demand of the Tengu.
Over 473 days of trading I’ve sold 56 Tengu hulls. Moving 14.7 B ISK, I was able to achieve a 2.29 B total profit with the average profit per hull coming in at 41.65 M.
Tengu Subsystem Performance
The real trading power comes from using some intelligence and trending to find the most popular Subsystems. My analysis shows that the Amplification Node was the most profitable and also had the highest average profit. The Fuel Catalyst is also a strong performer as it had the second highest average profit. At the bottom of the list was the Covert Reconfiguration as I accredit the cloakey role to be a very niche role.
25 of the Tengu hull sales included the same client buying one or more Subsystems at or around the same time. On average a person bought 2.6 Subsystems with an average total of 52.4 M profit.
Further analysis shows that the best performance comes from also selling a person 3-4 Subsystems when they are also buying the Tengu hull as the average profit per Subsystem for these transactions types comes in at 21.7-22 M.
I leave for two weeks and you all accidentally the market. I was not able the participate in the Odyssey speculation, but I am enjoying catching up on it.
The wild swings that we are seeing in the Moon and Ice markets due to Odyssey adjustments made me reflect on the stability of the items that I trade.
I used my historical database to come up with a report to provide quantitative insight to help give values to the items that I instinctively know are high risk. Here is a snapshot of the lower and upper items listed in my Stability Report that covers three years of trading sorted by standard deviation (σ).
Here are some general observations about the items listed:
- Basic minerals, ammo, and modules are the most stable.
- Capital modules weigh in somewhere in the middle.
- Tech2 ships fill the upper band of the report.
- Tech3 hulls and associated Subsystems are randomly spread over the middle band.
- Certain battleships are high on the report because their popularity has changed over time due to shifting fleet doctrines.
- The Procurer BPO was an item that I speculated on heavily during the last patch, which netted very positive results.
- Capital ships are subject to large swings due to mineral price changes.
A tenant of becoming a good trader is minimizing your risk while trying to maximize your rewards. My advice for new traders is to work with more stable items as shown in the shaded green area of my report; they are subject to less swing and therefore will help minimize risk. As your ISK resources grow, you can move into riskier items that will [hopefully] yield larger returns.
Thanks for all the feedback in the comments. I actually spent some time recently to figure out how to calculate item volatility here http://k162space.com/2013/08/20/hac-price-volatility/. I’m working out how to pull numbers for all my data for a new post soon.
Here are a few pictures that highlight my corporation’s venture into Wormhole space to strike it rich.
After 133 days of training, I have completed a training plan on one of my production characters that now allows me to construct every Tech 3 Hull and Subsystem.
Amarrian Starship Engineering V (25 D)
Caldari Starship Engineering V (25 D)
Gallentean Starship Engineering V (25 D)
Minmatar Starship Engineering V (25 D)
Cruiser Construction V (25 D)
Jury Rigging V (8 D)
I have little to no interest in setting up a production POS in lowsec due to the ability of any entity coming along and reinforcing the POS. I would rather operate under the umbrella of a 24 hour wardec timer that would allow me to bring up defenses and recover industry items before the war goes live.
June and July were periods of rapid growth, both in terms of buying power and activity spread. I’m now able to have my fingers in more markets and more item types, helping to spread the risk.
Out performing the liner projection the past three months.
My purchase sprees have grown in volume over the past few months. They keep topping out at larger amounts. 18.5, 21.1, 25.2, and now 25.5 B purchased in a single day. I love seeing the holding account balance go up, but liquid ISK is idle ISK. Throw is back into the market unless you are accruing a balance for a project.
1. New milestone reached as I moved 103.7 B ISK this month.
Subscribing to the Bulk Trade mailing list has fueled buying in large quantities. Why buy two Scimitars off the market when you can buy 20 and get a discount?
2. Speculation on Cobalt
I logged into Jita about 35 minutes after the Devblog was posted citing changes to Alchemy. At this time the majority of Cobalt was off the market, so I was only able to get 26k units @ 1,580 (41.7 M) and then I foolishly bought 15k units @ 7,000 (110.7 M).
As of this writing, Cobalt is sitting at 2,800 in Jita so I highly doubt that I was turn a profit on these speculative trades. I didn’t run the numbers after the announcement so I’ll accept the loss on this.
Despite the loss, it was fun to refresh the markets and watch the speculation drive prices. I hope for more changes to the moon market this fall.
This has proven to be a powerful way to remain connected to the market. I’m currently able to monitor sales and purchases. This lets me keep mental notes of what needs to be restocked or adjusted. In the future we hope to expand it with more Android style touch options.
Some ideas that we have been throwing around is that of a cart. If you are about to sell out of an item, it will shade the row and holding down on the row will bring up an action menu. You can look up history, item trading performance, or add the item to a restock cart.
4. Industrial Partner
We’re polishing off our invention and Tech3 production skills so we can start to mass produce ships and modules. *sigh* do you know that it is going to take 50+ days to be able to produce a Tengu hull and Subsystems?
The adjustments to Faction Warfare rewards killed profits on implants for me for over a month. I waited for the price to adjust and am back to trading these in high volumes again. In the past month implants are back in my highest performing group and I’ve moved 2,880 implants in the past 30 days.
6. Wallet Manager
For those of you that have been asking about my Wallet Manager program I have good news. A group of developers is using inspiration from our team and is coding up a public version for everyone. I chat with them daily on irc.coldfront.net and will have a post about this once we have some public-facing content.
I’m going to get my new partner, Raath, up to speed on the trade operation. He is bringing a large number of production alts so I’m looking forward to putting all our idle blueprints to use.