I leave for two weeks and you all accidentally the market. I was not able the participate in the Odyssey speculation, but I am enjoying catching up on it.
The wild swings that we are seeing in the Moon and Ice markets due to Odyssey adjustments made me reflect on the stability of the items that I trade.
I used my historical database to come up with a report to provide quantitative insight to help give values to the items that I instinctively know are high risk. Here is a snapshot of the lower and upper items listed in my Stability Report that covers three years of trading sorted by standard deviation (σ).
Here are some general observations about the items listed:
- Basic minerals, ammo, and modules are the most stable.
- Capital modules weigh in somewhere in the middle.
- Tech2 ships fill the upper band of the report.
- Tech3 hulls and associated Subsystems are randomly spread over the middle band.
- Certain battleships are high on the report because their popularity has changed over time due to shifting fleet doctrines.
- The Procurer BPO was an item that I speculated on heavily during the last patch, which netted very positive results.
- Capital ships are subject to large swings due to mineral price changes.
A tenant of becoming a good trader is minimizing your risk while trying to maximize your rewards. My advice for new traders is to work with more stable items as shown in the shaded green area of my report; they are subject to less swing and therefore will help minimize risk. As your ISK resources grow, you can move into riskier items that will [hopefully] yield larger returns.
Here are a few pictures that highlight my corporation’s venture into Wormhole space to strike it rich.
After 133 days of training, I have completed a training plan on one of my production characters that now allows me to construct every Tech 3 Hull and Subsystem.
Amarrian Starship Engineering V (25 D)
Caldari Starship Engineering V (25 D)
Gallentean Starship Engineering V (25 D)
Minmatar Starship Engineering V (25 D)
Cruiser Construction V (25 D)
Jury Rigging V (8 D)
I have little to no interest in setting up a production POS in lowsec due to the ability of any entity coming along and reinforcing the POS. I would rather operate under the umbrella of a 24 hour wardec timer that would allow me to bring up defenses and recover industry items before the war goes live.
June and July were periods of rapid growth, both in terms of buying power and activity spread. I’m now able to have my fingers in more markets and more item types, helping to spread the risk.
Out performing the liner projection the past three months.
My purchase sprees have grown in volume over the past few months. They keep topping out at larger amounts. 18.5, 21.1, 25.2, and now 25.5 B purchased in a single day. I love seeing the holding account balance go up, but liquid ISK is idle ISK. Throw is back into the market unless you are accruing a balance for a project.
1. New milestone reached as I moved 103.7 B ISK this month.
Subscribing to the Bulk Trade mailing list has fueled buying in large quantities. Why buy two Scimitars off the market when you can buy 20 and get a discount?
2. Speculation on Cobalt
I logged into Jita about 35 minutes after the Devblog was posted citing changes to Alchemy. At this time the majority of Cobalt was off the market, so I was only able to get 26k units @ 1,580 (41.7 M) and then I foolishly bought 15k units @ 7,000 (110.7 M).
As of this writing, Cobalt is sitting at 2,800 in Jita so I highly doubt that I was turn a profit on these speculative trades. I didn’t run the numbers after the announcement so I’ll accept the loss on this.
Despite the loss, it was fun to refresh the markets and watch the speculation drive prices. I hope for more changes to the moon market this fall.
This has proven to be a powerful way to remain connected to the market. I’m currently able to monitor sales and purchases. This lets me keep mental notes of what needs to be restocked or adjusted. In the future we hope to expand it with more Android style touch options.
Some ideas that we have been throwing around is that of a cart. If you are about to sell out of an item, it will shade the row and holding down on the row will bring up an action menu. You can look up history, item trading performance, or add the item to a restock cart.
4. Industrial Partner
We’re polishing off our invention and Tech3 production skills so we can start to mass produce ships and modules. *sigh* do you know that it is going to take 50+ days to be able to produce a Tengu hull and Subsystems?
The adjustments to Faction Warfare rewards killed profits on implants for me for over a month. I waited for the price to adjust and am back to trading these in high volumes again. In the past month implants are back in my highest performing group and I’ve moved 2,880 implants in the past 30 days.
6. Wallet Manager
For those of you that have been asking about my Wallet Manager program I have good news. A group of developers is using inspiration from our team and is coding up a public version for everyone. I chat with them daily on irc.coldfront.net and will have a post about this once we have some public-facing content.
I’m going to get my new partner, Raath, up to speed on the trade operation. He is bringing a large number of production alts so I’m looking forward to putting all our idle blueprints to use.
In addition to the massive stock of Subsystem BPCs that I recently acquired on a bulk deal, I have also picked up a large amount of Tech 3 hull BPCs.
I thought that a large batch of hulls would go along nicely with the production run of the Subsystems so I bought them after running the numbers.
The bulk deal was for enough BPCs to make 443 Hulls. The average BPC price per run on the deal came out to 18.35 M. On public contract right now, a Tengu BPC is trading at about 20-25 M/run.
Construction Skill Prerequisites That I Need
I will need to train up Cruiser Construction to V and each racial Starship Engineering to V. Each one will take around ~22 days to get to V.
I currently have 6.7 M skills in Science on my industry, invention, and research alt so this will help round him out by giving him the ability to produce a large variety of Tech 2/3 ships.
I now have enough BPCs to make 119 Legion, 61 Loki, 51 Proteus, and 212 Tengu Hulls.
Production Run Considerations
Tech 3 Hulls and Subsystems can only be made in an Subsystem Assembly Array anchored at a POS.
A mobile assembly facility where advanced subsystems and hulls of strategic cruisers can be manufactured
3 manufacturing slots:
Base time multiplier: 1.0
Base material multiplier: 1.0
(Note: Tech III hulls cannot be assembled at starbase structures. The hulls and subsystems can only be assembled whilst docked in a station.)
Just the 212 Tengu Hulls will take 7 months to produce on 1 production line. I’m not sure how many Subsystem Assembly Array modules will go live for the run or how many characters will be trained up to produce yet.
Making 443 Hulls will produce a profit of 12.9 B minus the investment for the BPCs at 8.1 B. The profit estimation is around 4.7 B.
Note that the previous profit number does not account for the cost of running POS.