Item Price Stability

I leave for two weeks and you all accidentally the market. I was not able the participate in the Odyssey speculation, but I am enjoying catching up on it.

2013.05.16.19.26.13-12013.05.16.19.25.40-1

The wild swings that we are seeing in the Moon and Ice markets due to Odyssey adjustments made me reflect on the stability of the items that I trade.

I used my historical database to come up with a report to provide quantitative insight to help give values to the items that I instinctively know are high risk. Here is a snapshot of the lower and upper items listed in my Stability Report that covers three years of trading sorted by standard deviation (σ).

2013-05-15_price_detail

Here are some general observations about the items listed:

  • Basic minerals, ammo, and modules are the most stable.
  • Capital modules weigh in somewhere in the middle.
  • Tech2 ships fill the upper band of the report.
  • Tech3 hulls and associated Subsystems are randomly spread over the middle band.
  • Certain battleships are high on the report because their popularity has changed over time due to shifting fleet doctrines.
  • The Procurer BPO was an item that I speculated on heavily during the last patch, which netted very positive results.
  • Capital ships are subject to large swings due to mineral price changes.

A tenant of becoming a good trader is minimizing your risk while trying to maximize your rewards. My advice for new traders is to work with more stable items as shown in the shaded green area of my report; they are subject to less swing and therefore will help minimize risk. As your ISK resources grow, you can move into riskier items that will [hopefully] yield larger returns.

Update

Thanks for all the feedback in the comments. I actually spent some time recently to figure out how to calculate item volatility here http://k162space.com/2013/08/20/hac-price-volatility/. I’m working out how to pull numbers for all my data for a new post soon.


Retribution Hangar Change

“Fleet hangars will now behave like normal cargo hold when it comes to ship scanners and loot drops (ie, will be scannable, and loot will drop from them)”
Source

Looks like the high value ‘stealth’ hauler Orca will be a thing of the past. May the loot fairies have mercy on you.


I wish I could make this shit up

I’m sure everyone knows the tried and true axion of “never trust anyone in Eve”. I’d like to add another axion.

“If you’ve just woken up and have a really bad feeling about something going on, cancel warp, you fucking idiot”

So, get up this morning, look at the stack of linear algebra, login to my Orca pilot to update her skill que, someone types in alliance private chat
“Anyone want these two imperial navy multi-frequency crystals, free?”

I say sure, get a fleet invite, get fleetwarped, which triggers the first alarm bell in my head. Unfortunately, I’m still half asleep, so since my Orca’s aligned to planet VI, and the dude says he’s at planet VI moon something, I let it slide. Orca warps, and I can’t help but notice the moon he says he’s on slide worryingly past as there’s a neutral XXdeathXX spike in local.

So, I land on planet VI, and immediately start realigning to the pos, get scrammed by a loki, bubble goes up, corpmates try to assist but I tell them to hold, they’ll probably lose the two thannys to a hotdrop, set self-destruct and watch as Lebius, my Orca for eight months of W-space, which has survived through all the crazy-ass shit I’ve put it through, including warping past a russian WH pvp fleet, warping past russian dreads and such in a C6, closing a WH w/ a fleet massing on the other side, warping out moments before a bubble fleet warped in on the grav, hauling through a five-C5 link to a lowsec WH w/ a bil of compressed ore, and a huge pile of other things I cant remember right now, explodes. The pod, with +3 implants(o noes!) explodes.

Most people would be angry, but I’ve got this really weird trait. Ever since kindergarten, I’m completely unaffected by losses unless I’m convinced that the other site cheated or went outside predetermined rules, at which point I usually collapse into a complete emotional breakdown and/or start punching things. This was completely within the “rules”. They (probably) had a spy in our channel, they probably fleeted me at that exact moment and had a covops floating outside the bubble to fleetwarp me, counting on that I’d be too lazy to check the actual fleet invite.

So, if you’ll not the sabre on the killmail, I wake up in station, thankfully with all my skillpoints intact. Prasing raath for having me insure my orca, I check my wallet.

170 mil.

Apparently, the Orca wasn’t insured.

I check my mail.
The Orca’s insurance expired just over five fucking hours ago.

SO.

Got about a bil in wallet, got an outstanding loan of a bil to pay back, a plex due in 12 hours and an orca, rigged to replace.

Gotta love Eve.


POS Defense in Wormholes C1-6

Not so recently, CCRES came into our wormhole, noticed an orca floating in the shields, killed all our defences and reinforced our tower in case we had forgotten to put strontium in a tower in a dread-accepting enviroment.

The fact that they felt that the lack of strontium was a possibility makes me lose a little faith in the foresight of the Eve wormhole community.

Recently, I was contacted by a CCRES member who told me that they put the PoS into reinforced mostly for fun. Acting on various word cues in his description, I managed to decypher THIS message:

“Our reason was far grander than a petty Orca and what we had in the corp hangar, for the legendary tales of your pvp prowess and twisted cunning in use of cloaky ships was so utterly terrifying that we could not just close the connecting WH but attacked your tower in hopes that having their ships destroyed by your considerable defenses, THEN closing the connecting WH with what few ships remained would be the only way to appease your unquantifiable wrath. Unfortunately, the tower’s defenses had been mostly offlined and unanchored into the corp hangar due to a spy, who after his two year infiltration campaign only now had the courage to act on his orders to mildly inconvenience you, then immediately killed himself out of fear and shame. We were thus forced to put the inconvenienced tower into full reinforced, to better reflect it’s former armed glory until a point in the future where you could reanchor your powerful and majestic defenses.”

Anyway, we had the full compliment so they settled for sending us a mail essentially saying:
“Hey, we put your pos in reinforced looking for free ships, you should probably try this configuration next time”
(For those interested they recommended dickstar)

After the reinforced timer ended we repped the PoS in a rorqual, orca and a few BSs which got MUCH faster once we realized the ending of reinforced meant that we could access the cap rechargers, power relays and energy xfer arrays in the corp hangar.

Anyway, this shite got me thinking. Wormhole territory is fast becoming a shifting battlefield. PoS takedowns, once the product of Amarr BS fleets that passed out at their keyboards firing at abandoned structures, are becoming more frequent and frankly, kinda alarming. Between a friend of mine getting attacked by two dreads w/ BS support fleet, Planet Risk owning then being owned by R&K, and CCRES’s “Stront check” of our PoS, I’d like to give an overview of PoS defense in a wormhole:

You’re screwed.

Here’s a little more detailed and less cynical view:

C1:
Size restrictions allow only battlecruiser hulls or smaller, but know that haulers, which can hold cap parts, large towers, fuel, x-large ship assembly arrays and everything else required to build a dread to kill your PoSes, can.
Recommended defenses:
Small guns, some medium guns anchored but not online. BC hulls or smaller usually means your only attackers will have poor dps, so hardeners are recommended. By the time they’ve built a dread you should already be gone >.>

C2-C3
Battleships are allowed in here, good for sites, bad when someone hates you, has a route to you and has a BS fleet handy can be a significant threat to your well-being. Build a carrier and rent/own/know someone who has a carrier pilot handy to scare off/murder/ambush attackers.
C4-C6
Carriers are “allowed” to jump in here, hence you should be prepared. Don’t ask me how, we still haven’t come up with a a counter to a carrier/dread with support fleet.

Essentially, the deeper you go, the more likley you are to be screwed, because the less time attackers have to invest in beating you into the ground. A battlecruiser takedown of a PoS is torture, a BS takedown isn’t much fun, and a dread-assisted takedown is about less than an hour, so an attacker’s time invested in making your life a living hell is much less than what it took for you to get two capitals, orcas, and the other thirty ships you’ve amassed over several months into the wormhole.

Point is, if someone wants you out of a specific hole, they can motivate you to get out. If you fit guns, they’ll wait for your offtime and have RR gangs. If you fit ECM, they’ll bring a dread and sensor boosters. If you go full hardeners, they’ll bring a dread again. If you find the most amazing awesome pos configuration ever, they’ll just starve you of fuel. They can activate all your sites with a scan ship every morning, camp your static, build a dread, any number of things in mind to make you think “boy, I wish they weren’t here or I wasn’t here”. The best defence, IMO, is two fold:

The first and more reasonable method is to have several friends and/or piles of isk to hire several friends. Eve is a spreadsheet game, but is refreshingly simple in combat calculations, which usually amount to “Whoever has the most experienced friends wins”.

The method that, us lacking large groups of friends and a general sense of comradery, is to be ready to be gone. Write the PoS off as already dead, and have the expensive gear in capital ships/industrials. When, not if, WHEN you get attacked by a superior force move to a deep safe you’ve created before deep safes were nerfed(before May 18), and/or make a safe in system and logoff in it. Then, scan your static, which, since you’ve been preparing for this exact situation for a while, goes to a C4 or higher WH and will close exactly after you pass your entire operation through it, once it’s been shoved into cap ships/orcas. If said static has a static C4 or higher, move in, setup the backup pos and either rebuild there or go through the next static.

The third method, that dedicated people of eve will probably do, and do better than me, is to want the hole more. Have an Orca/carrier cloak in system w/ lots of SB hulls, scan ships hulls, and fits. Get 5-10 people in. Proceed to activate every site after downtime, bomb the static periodically and generally make whoever tried to take your hole/lives in the hole you want wish they’d never heard of a local-lacking environment. Take 200 combat scan probes, launch seven, cloak. Repeat every 2 hours or so. Eventually, they will leave. Wait a week. If they come back, do it all again, if they don’t, setup a small pos and put a maint array/hangar in it. Have one big ship and one small ship for each pilot. Pilots logoff in big ships w/ scan ships/SBs in orca and CHEAP haulers/other ships in the small tower’s maint array. Don’t bother putting anything in the small tower’s corp hangar, as anyone who finds it will try to put it into reinforced, making removal of the stuff difficult. Don’t worry about defenses, again, if someone wants the tower dead, it’s dead. Make sure to have stront, and if the dudes come back lookin for trouble, unanchor the pos (using a cheap hauler w/ SB support), stuff it in the Orca and go back to step one. Repeat as necessary until they stop coming back and you feel safe enough to anchor a large pos and/or keep living out of orcas/capitals. Use any spare orcas/carriers to collapse the static at inoppertune times, and restock your equipment (using cheap haulers) at 5 am their time and/or downtime. Bubble the static and cloak SBs nearby.

People attack your wormhole because they’ve either been hired to do it, they want your sites, or they’re just bored. The bored will leave, the hired will eventually stop working for the hirer, and the people that want your sites won’t get your sites because you activated all the sites every downtime. An Orca, a few scan ships and SBs w/ fits is not expensive at all compared to WH sites, so you can make their lives irritating w/ very little expense on your end. The person who wins will eventually either be the person/people who get bored first. Or, someone runs out of money. Who’s gonna run out of money first, the people w/ covops cloaks or the people who can’t cloak while they fight sleepers or mine?


January Screenshot Collection

January was the month of new ships for my characters. My main got into a Thanatos (Gallente Carrier) while my alt got into an Obelisk (Gallente Freighter). Here are some screenshots of their maiden voyage, mining in WH space (as always), and some attempted ganks by WH pirates.

  1. New Obelisk heading out of The Forge link
  2. Sleipnir stealing Arkonor from our jetcans after a failed gank link
  3. Mining a 150,000 unit Bistot roid link
  4. Tengu, Megathron, and Drake taking on sleepers in a C3 link
  5. Three Mobile Medium Warp Disruptor I‘s around a WH link
  6. A Helios approaching a Lava Planet link
  7. Route back to Jita from deep in 0.0 link
  8. Oneiros remote repping 3x ships during a WH camp link
  9. Gank during the onlining of a Large POS link
  10. ECM fun with a corpmate link
  11. Pretty POS shot in front of a planet link
  12. 5 Hulks and 1 Orca on a Arkonor roid link

Let me know if a monthly screenshot collection is something you guys want to see as a continuing feature.


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